基于货币政策的我国通货膨胀治理有效性分析

发布时间：2018-01-26 04:26

本文关键词： 货币政策有效性通货膨胀货币供应量　出处：《西北师范大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：通货膨胀是一个复杂的综合的经济现象，它是衡量宏观经济是否健康平稳运行的重要指标，它可以改变各种商品的相对价格，从消费产出和资源的有效配置等方面对宏观经济产生影响货币政策的有效性，就是指在特定的经济环境中，通过对不同货币政策工具的运用，能否实现其预定的调控目标货币政策是控制通货膨胀的重要手段之一，货币政策的效果具有阶段性特征在国内外相关研究的基础上，基于后凯恩斯主义货币理论，运用SVAR模型研究不同货币政策的数量效果和规律性及其在治理我国通货膨胀中所发挥的作用，以期为以后通货膨张的治理以及提高货币政策的有效性方面提供科学的参考依据，以便有效地控制和防范通货膨胀论文介绍了通货膨胀及货币政策的相关理论，分析了1980年以来通货膨胀的特点及原因，采用协整理论及结构向量自回归(SVAR)等工具建立符合我国实际情况的货币政策对通货膨胀有效性的模型，同时采用时间序列的稳定性检验方差分解以及脉冲响应分析等方法对我国1980年以来不同时间段的货币政策有效性进行实证分析，结论为：一年期贷款基准利率货币供应量名义汇率和通货膨胀率取对数后一阶差分平稳，并且存在长期协整关系；通过建立SVAR模型，从当期来看，通货膨胀都受自身冲击的影响较大，在第3季度达到峰值，，之后响应缓慢减小，从长期来看有趋于平稳的趋势说明无论是出现通货膨胀还是通货紧缩的外生冲击,都会导致通货膨胀或者通货紧缩的持续性；货币供应量的增加在短期和长期对通货膨胀率水平的上升均有一定的促进作用；利率的冲击对通货膨胀的影响，不能很快反映到物价水平上，大约到第四季度表现得较明显；汇率的冲击对通货膨胀率的影响具有一定的时滞效应，要到了第五季度之后才开始缓慢地抑制通货膨胀论文对治理通货膨胀中如何提高货币政策有效性提出了相关的建议，要推进利率市场化推进存款准备金率制度改革完善再贴现政策等
[Abstract]:Inflation is a complex and comprehensive economic phenomenon, it is an important indicator to measure the health and stability of macroeconomic, it can change the relative prices of various commodities. Impact on the macro economy in terms of consumption output and effective allocation of resources The effectiveness of monetary policy refers to whether, in a specific economic environment, the use of different monetary policy tools can achieve its predetermined regulatory objectives. Monetary policy is one of the important means to control inflation. The effect of monetary policy has stage characteristics based on post-Keynesian monetary theory on the basis of relevant studies at home and abroad. This paper applies SVAR model to study the quantitative effect and regularity of different monetary policies and their role in controlling inflation in China. The aim is to provide a scientific reference for the control of inflation and the improvement of the effectiveness of monetary policy, so as to effectively control and prevent inflation. This paper introduces the theory of inflation and monetary policy, and analyzes the characteristics and causes of inflation since 1980. Cointegration theory and structural vector autoregressive (SVARA) are used to establish a model of the effectiveness of monetary policy to inflation in accordance with the actual situation in China. At the same time, the time series stability test variance decomposition and impulse response analysis are used to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy in different periods since 1980. The conclusions are as follows: the nominal exchange rate and inflation rate of the one-year benchmark interest rate of money supply are stable and stable after logarithmic, and there is a long-term cointegration relationship; Through the establishment of SVAR model, from the current point of view, inflation is greatly affected by the impact of their own impact, in the third quarter reached a peak, and then the response slowly decreased. In the long run, there is a tendency to be stable, which shows that the exogenous impact of inflation or deflation will lead to inflation or the persistence of deflation. The increase of money supply can promote the inflation rate in both the short and long term. The impact of interest rate shocks on inflation cannot be quickly reflected in the price level, about 4th quarter performance is more obvious; The impact of exchange rate shocks on inflation has a certain delay effect, until after the 5th quarter began to slow down inflation This paper puts forward some relevant suggestions on how to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation. It is necessary to push forward the marketization of interest rate and the reform of reserve ratio system, and improve the rediscount policy, and so on.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F822.5

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