基于人民币汇率的中美贸易分析

发布时间：2018-01-31 08:55

本文关键词： 中美贸易汇率国际收支摩擦　出处：《延边大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自从1994年以来,中国的经常账户一直保持长期顺差。中国的外汇储备从1994年的516.2亿美元激增到2011年的3.181万亿美元。巨大的贸易顺差和外汇储备,必然给人民币带来升值压力。2005年7月21号中国货币当局宣布：废除原有的自1994年开始实施的盯住美元的单一货币政策,实施更加富有弹性的货币政策,根据市场供求关系,参考一揽子货币,对人民币汇率进行调节。从此,人民币开始了崎岖漫长的升值之路。但是,这次人民币的升值程度,远没有达到美、日等西方国家想要的程度。对人民币升值问题的讨论并没有画上句号,人民币进一步升值的压力与预期仍然存在。本文的写作就是在这样的大背景下开始的。那么人民币升值的呼声为何如此之高?人民币汇率与贸易余额的相关性有多大?人民币该不该升值?该升多少?等等这些问题都说明：研究和分析人民币汇率对我国对外贸易的影响具有重大意义。本文分为6章：第一章绪论介绍本文的写作背景、目的、研究意义及方法；第二章介绍了本文涉及到的基本理论,主要包括贸易理论、国际收支理论、购买力平价的汇率决定理论；第三章介绍了中美贸易的状况；第四章分析了造成中美贸易失衡的主要原因；第五章研究了人民币汇率与中美贸易的相关性；第六章就如何解决汇率争端,改善中美贸易关系提出对策建议。在写作方法上,本文以国际贸易理论、国际收支理论、购买力平价的汇率决定理论为基础。通过实证分析指出影响国际贸易的诸多因素；并通过对日本的经验的回顾,通过对比,研究人民币汇率与对外贸易的相关性。在此基础上,给出一些政策建议。本文的写作其意义在于：研究国际上人民币升值的呼声为何如此之高；人民币该不该升值,该如何升；人民币汇率与贸易余额的相关性又有多大。我们的结论是：人民币汇率不是造成中美贸易失衡的主要原因。概括起来,美国指责人民币汇率的真实动机应该有四个：第一,转移国内经济增长乏力的压力；第二,为美国国内党派政治斗争服务；第三,扼制中国经济发展；第四,在国际金融领域保持美国的巨无霸地位。在2005年到2008年期间人民币的升值幅度超过30%,而在此期间,美国对中国的贸易赤字不降反升。从2010年到2012年,人民币的升值程度超过一成,其他国家同中国的贸易赤字都减小了,而唯独美国同中国的贸易赤字继续扩大。中美贸易问题已经不仅仅是一个经济问题,已经上升到了一个更高的层面。所以,我们不能仅仅从经济方面来找答案,要从政治、经济、文化等各个方面综合起来找答案。中美贸易失衡,可能的主要原因有两个第一是,美国自身的经济结构出了问题；第二是,美国的对华贸易政策——对于中国的出口商品美国采取了歧视性和限制性的贸易政策。关于中美贸易不均衡的问题,我们可以从这两个方面寻找原因。
[Abstract]:Since 1994. China's current-account surplus has been running for a long time. China's foreign exchange reserves surged from $51.62 billion in 1994 to $three tillion one hundred and eighty-one billion in 2011. On July 21st 2005, China's monetary authorities announced that the single currency policy, which had been pegged to the US dollar since 1994, would be abolished. To implement a more flexible monetary policy, according to the market supply and demand relationship, referring to a package of currencies to adjust the RMB exchange rate. From then on, the RMB began a long and rugged road of appreciation. But. This time the appreciation of the RMB is far from what the United States, Japan and other Western countries want. The discussion on the appreciation of the RMB has not ended. The pressure and expectation of further appreciation of RMB still exist. So why are the calls for appreciation so high? How much is the correlation between RMB exchange rate and trade balance? Should the RMB appreciate? How much should l? And so on these problems all explain: it is of great significance to study and analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's foreign trade. This paper is divided into six chapters: the first chapter introduces the background, purpose, research significance and methods of this paper. The second chapter introduces the basic theories involved in this paper, including trade theory, balance of payments theory, purchasing power parity exchange rate determination theory; The third chapter introduces the status of Sino-US trade; Chapter 4th analyzes the main causes of Sino-US trade imbalance; Chapter 5th studies the correlation between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade. Chapter 6th puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on how to resolve exchange rate disputes and improve Sino-US trade relations. Based on the theory of international trade, the theory of international balance of payments and the theory of exchange rate determination of purchasing power parity, this paper points out many factors that affect international trade through empirical analysis. And through the review of Japan's experience, through comparison, the study of the correlation between RMB exchange rate and foreign trade. On this basis. Some policy suggestions are given. The significance of this paper lies in: why the voice of the international appreciation of the RMB is so high; Whether the RMB should appreciate or not, how to rise; How much is the correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the balance of trade? Our conclusion is that the RMB exchange rate is not the main cause of Sino-US trade imbalance. To sum up, there should be four real motives for the US to blame the RMB exchange rate: first. Shifting the pressure of weak domestic economic growth; Second, to serve the political struggle of political parties in the United States; Third, to curb China's economic development; In 4th, the United States maintained its status as a giant in international finance. Between 2005 and 2008, the yuan appreciated by more than 30 percent, while during that period the yuan appreciated more than 30 percent. The U.S. trade deficit with China has risen instead of falling. From 2010 to 2012, the yuan appreciated by more than 10%, and other countries' trade deficits with China have fallen. But the trade deficit between the United States and China continues to widen. The Sino-US trade problem is not just an economic problem, it has risen to a higher level. So, we can't just look for answers from the economic side. The main possible reasons for the trade imbalance between China and the United States are two main reasons: first, there are problems with the economic structure of the United States itself; Second, the United States' trade policy with China-the United States has adopted discriminatory and restrictive trade policies on Chinese exports. We can find out the reasons from these two aspects about the trade imbalance between China and the United States.
【学位授予单位】：延边大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7;F224

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