央行加息对个人理财投资组合影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-02-03 08:44

本文关键词： 投资组合货币政策个人理财产品加息影响程度　出处：《沈阳大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：从2010年10月份开始至2011年7月份，面对通货膨胀的压力，央行进行了五次加息。加息使商业银行和其它金融机构对中央银行的借贷成本提高，进而迫使市场的利息也进行增加，对各个投资领域都会产生影响，个人理财也应该跟随加息的步调适当调整。本文通过从宏观货币政策对微观个人理财者影响的角度进行研究，分析央行加息对个人理财投资组合的影响，为投资者在加息情况下进行合理的资产配置提供决策依据，并有助于理财机构为客户在加息背景下设计个人理财产品，也有利于央行更好的掌握利率调控对居民理财的效应。通过研究个人理财的目标和影响因素，在理论分析加息对个人理财投资影响的基础上，发放调查问卷，对收集的数据进行实证分析。首先分析了加息对个人理财投资组合的收益、期限、总金额、结构和风险方面的影响，表明加息使大部分投资者的投资组合收益略有增长，期限倾向于中期，，投资总金额倾向于增加，股票风险增大，投资者在组合中倾向于减少股票投资，增加储蓄和银行理财产品；然后通过实证分析不同的投资组合、不同利率关注度的投资者、不同收入水平的投资者受加息的影响，证明了“储蓄+基金+银行理财产品”组合模式收益最好，利率关注程度越高的投资者收益增加的可能性越大，收入水平越高的投资者受加息影响越大；最后用模糊综合评价的方法分析了加息对个人理财投资组合的综合影响程度，得出央行加息对个人理财投资组合有一定影响的结论。通过理论和实证分析后，本文提出了个人理财投资组合如何应对央行加息的对策建议：投资者应该增加受益于加息的理财品种、配置对冲利率风险的投资组合、巧妙搭配理财期限并且要关注经济形势和货币政策。整个研究证明了央行加息会对个人理财投资组合产生影响，投资者应该关注加息并适时对自己的投资组合做出调整，合理进行资产配置。
[Abstract]:From October 2010 to July 2011, the central bank raised interest rates five times in the face of inflationary pressures, which increased the cost of lending to central banks by commercial banks and other financial institutions. In turn, the market interest rate will be forced to increase, which will have an impact on all sectors of investment. Personal finance should also follow the pace of interest rate rise appropriate adjustment. This paper from the perspective of macro-monetary policy on the impact of micro-personal financial managers to analyze the impact of central bank interest rate increase on the portfolio of personal finance. For investors in the case of a reasonable allocation of assets in the case of decision-making basis, and help financial institutions for customers in the context of interest rate increase in the design of personal financial products. It also helps the central bank better grasp the effect of interest rate regulation on financial management of residents. Through the study of personal financial objectives and influencing factors, on the basis of theoretical analysis of the impact of interest rate increase on personal financial investment, a questionnaire was issued. Empirical analysis of the collected data. Firstly, this paper analyzes the impact of interest rate increase on the return, duration, total amount, structure and risk of personal financial investment portfolio. It shows that the interest rate increases the portfolio income of most investors slightly, the term tends to the medium term, the total amount of investment tends to increase, the stock risk increases, and the investors tend to reduce the stock investment in the portfolio. Increasing savings and banking products; Then through empirical analysis of different portfolios, different interest rates of attention of investors, different income levels of investors affected by interest rate increases. It proves that the portfolio model of "savings fund bank wealth management product" has the best return, the higher the interest rate is, the more likely it is to increase the return of investors, and the higher the income level is, the greater the impact of interest rate increase will be on the investors with higher income level. Finally, the paper analyzes the comprehensive influence of raising interest rate on personal financial investment portfolio by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and draws the conclusion that the central bank interest rate increase has certain influence on personal financial management investment portfolio. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward the personal financial portfolio how to deal with the central bank interest rate rise countermeasures: investors should increase the benefit of interest rate increase in financial products. Allocation of a portfolio to hedge interest rate risk, a clever match of financial management periods and attention to the economic situation and monetary policy. The whole study has proved that central bank interest rate increases have an impact on personal financial portfolios. Investors should focus on raising interest rates and timely adjustment of their portfolios, rational asset allocation.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.48

【参考文献】