货币政策对北京市商品房价格影响的研究

发布时间：2018-02-10 07:35

本文关键词： 货币政策商品房价格存款准备金率货币需求　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产业是我国当前经济发展的支柱产业，货币政策对房地产市场的调控是一个长期的不断发展变化的过程，在这个动态的过程中，其对整个房地产的各个方面都将产生不同程度的影响，尤其对房价的影响表现比较突出，也就是说货币政策通过各种调控手段实现的最终目标就是保持经济增长，稳定房价。因此货币政策对商品房价格产生的影响，具有非常重要的研究价值。近十年随着我国房地产投资过热，针对房地产贷款增长过快及商品房价格不断攀升等现实情况，央行采取不断提高存款准备率、实行差额准备金率等一系列从紧的货币调控政策。目前，商品房成交量得到一定抑制，价格涨幅虽有所回落，但仍处于高位运行态势。尽管政府出台了各种不同的货币政策以及针对房地产市场的各种调控政策，但并没有达到预期的调控效果，可见我国目前紧要的任务之一是有效调控商品房价格。如何提高货币政策对房价调控的效果？本文由五个章节组成。第一章首先介绍了选题的背景，指出货币政策对房价调控的效果。接下来依次介绍了论文的研究目的、意义、研究思路和研究方法，对国内外相关研究文献进行评述；第二章针对货币政策主要概念和相关理论、货币政策的调控路径及货币政策影响房地产价格的调控机理等方面进行了详细阐述；第三章对近十年北京市房地产开发投资、开发建设及商品房销售价格现状进行统计分析；第四章通过近十年我国货币政策导向、关键指标计划值与实际执行情况的对比分析，描述了我国不同时期货币政策变化对北京市商品房量价变化的影响效果，运用统计分析方法论证北京市房地产市场量价水平变化与货币政策的周期性变化的相互关系。通过构建多元线性回归方程模型，实证分析了存款准备金率和贷款利率对房屋销售价格指数和房屋销售面积的影响效果。第五章通过以上定性、定量分析，，得出结论：货币政策对北京市商品房量价的影响具有滞后性；采用货币政策的贷款利率调控商品房销量和价格，效果比较显著；反之，采用存款准备金率调控，则效果并不显著。综合以上分析，在货币政策调控房地产市场的过程中，注重政策的系统性、针对性和统一性，建立预警系统，动态调控房地产市场，以提高货币政策对房地产市场的调控效果。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of our country's current economic development. The regulation of monetary policy on the real estate market is a long-term process of continuous development and change. In this dynamic process, It will have different effects on all aspects of real estate, especially on housing prices. That is to say, the ultimate goal of monetary policy through various means of regulation and control is to maintain economic growth. Therefore, the impact of monetary policy on the prices of commercial housing is of great value. In the past decade, with the overheating of real estate investment in China, the real estate loans have increased too fast and the prices of commercial housing have been rising. The central bank has adopted a series of tight monetary control policies, such as continuously increasing the deposit reserve rate and implementing a series of tight monetary control policies such as the difference reserve ratio. At present, the transaction volume of commercial housing has been restrained to a certain extent, but the price increase has slowed down. Although the government has introduced various monetary policies and various regulation policies aimed at the real estate market, it has not achieved the desired regulatory effect. It can be seen that Ren Wuzhi is one of the most important issues in China at present. How to improve the effect of monetary policy on housing price control? This paper is composed of five chapters. The first chapter introduces the background of the topic, and points out the effect of monetary policy on housing price regulation. Then, it introduces the research purpose, significance, research ideas and research methods. The related research literatures at home and abroad are reviewed. In the second chapter, the main concepts and related theories of monetary policy, the control path of monetary policy and the mechanism of monetary policy affecting real estate prices are elaborated in detail. The third chapter makes a statistical analysis on the current situation of real estate development investment, development and construction and the sale price of commercial housing in Beijing in the past ten years. Chapter 4th, through the comparative analysis of the monetary policy orientation, the plan value of the key indicators and the actual implementation, describes the effect of the monetary policy change on the price change of commercial housing in Beijing in different periods. The relationship between the change of volume and price level of Beijing real estate market and the periodic change of monetary policy is demonstrated by means of statistical analysis, and the multivariate linear regression equation model is constructed. The effect of deposit reserve ratio and loan interest rate on housing sales price index and housing sales area is analyzed empirically. Chapter 5th, through the above qualitative and quantitative analysis, draws a conclusion that the influence of monetary policy on the volume and price of commercial housing in Beijing is lagging; the effect of adopting the loan interest rate of monetary policy to regulate the sales volume and price of commercial housing is remarkable; conversely, Use deposit reserve ratio control, the effect is not significant. Synthesizing the above analysis, in the process of monetary policy regulating the real estate market, we should pay attention to the systematization, pertinence and unity of the policy, establish an early warning system, and dynamically regulate the real estate market. In order to improve the monetary policy on the real estate market regulation and control effect.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F293.3;F822.0

【参考文献】