人民币汇率改革:折衷的方案

发布时间：2018-02-12 03:14

本文关键词： 人民币汇率改革宏观经济稳定经济可持续增长　出处：《国际经济评论》2010年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章从宏观经济稳定和经济可持续增长两个角度评价了当前人民币事实上重新回归钉住美元汇率制度的优点和缺陷;评价了小幅渐进升值、各种形式的钉住一揽子货币、用要素价格改革和通胀替代人民币升值、一次性大幅升值等人民币汇率改革替代方案的优点和缺陷;提出了最能兼顾长短期利益的人民币汇率的折衷改革方案。折衷方案的内容包括:第一,人民币兑美元双边汇率一次性升值10%;第二,一次性升值后的人民币汇率保持年波动率上下3%的自由浮动区间。折衷的含义体现在两个方面:第一,人民币更加贴近均衡合理的汇率水平,且会步入一个因市场预期不同而自发调整的"状态依存型"汇率形成机制,有利于遏制人民币升值预期和投资资本冲击;第二,汇率调整造成的对宏观经济的冲击将被控制在可接受的范围之内。
[Abstract]:This paper evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of the current RMB exchange rate regime from the point of view of macroeconomic stability and sustainable economic growth, and evaluates the small gradual appreciation and various forms of pegging basket of currencies. The advantages and disadvantages of the alternative schemes of RMB exchange rate reform, such as factor price reform and inflation instead of RMB appreciation, and one-off large appreciation; This paper puts forward a compromise reform scheme of RMB exchange rate which can best take into account the long-term and short-term interests. The compromise includes: first, the one-off appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar bilateral exchange rate; and second, the one-off appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar. The one-off appreciation of the RMB exchange rate maintains a free floating band of up or down 3% annual volatility. The meaning of the compromise is reflected in two aspects: first, the RMB is closer to a balanced and reasonable exchange rate. Moreover, it will step into a "state-dependent" exchange rate formation mechanism, which will be adjusted spontaneously according to different market expectations, which is conducive to containing the expectation of RMB appreciation and the impact of investment capital; second, The macroeconomic impact of exchange-rate adjustments will be contained within acceptable limits.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】