中国货币经济波动分析:基于垄断竞争动态一般均衡模型的估计

发布时间：2018-02-12 14:10

本文关键词： 经济波动经济冲击价格粘性　出处：《世界经济》2010年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于具有微观基础的垄断竞争动态一般均衡模型的计量估计,分析了中国货币经济波动中几种重要的经济变量的相互作用机制,在此基础上我们重点研究了中国货币经济波动中的货币冲击、需求偏好冲击和生产率冲击对经济波动的短期和长期影响。对于经济波动影响,短期来看,反映需求冲击的偏好冲击波动对实际产出波动影响很大,反映供给冲击的生产率冲击波动则对通货膨胀波动影响很大,而实际货币余额冲击波动对实际产出波动和通货膨胀波动影响不大;长期来看,需求偏好冲击和生产率波动持久性小因而对经济波动持久影响不大。由于样本期内估计的实际货币余额冲击是持久且扩散的,长期来看实际货币余额冲击的波动造成了很大的实际产出和通货膨胀的波动。
[Abstract]:Based on the econometric estimation of the dynamic general equilibrium model of monopoly competition, this paper analyzes the interaction mechanism of several important economic variables in the fluctuation of China's monetary economy. On this basis, we focus on the short-term and long-term effects of monetary shocks, demand preference shocks and productivity shocks on economic fluctuations in China. The fluctuation of preference shock, which reflects the demand shock, has a great influence on the fluctuation of actual output, while the fluctuation of productivity shock, which reflects the shock of supply, has a great influence on the fluctuation of inflation. The fluctuations in real currency balance shocks have little impact on fluctuations in real output and inflation; in the long run, Demand preference shocks and low persistence of productivity fluctuations have little lasting impact on economic volatility. Because the estimated real currency balance shocks in the sample period are persistent and diffuse, In the long run, fluctuations in real currency balance shocks have caused large fluctuations in real output and inflation.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学经济学院;南京大学商学院;
【基金】：南京财经大学科研基金项目资助(项目编号:A0704)
【分类号】：F822

【参考文献】