上市公司盈利水平与现金股利支付水平的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-17 04:35

本文关键词： 盈利水平现金股利支付水平上市公司　出处：《北京交通大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：股利政策作为公司财务决策之一,一直是理论界与实务界关注的焦点。由于股利政策与股东的自身利益紧密相关,股东非常关注公司的股利政策,尤其是现金股利,更是关系到股东回报的实质性问题。一直以来社会公众认为上市公司盈利但不分红,为此证监会还发布新政强调要重视分红,本文就是针对这一现象运用实际数据,试图找出我国上市公司盈利性与现金股利支付水平的关系,判断高盈利低分红的现象是否是普遍现象,也可以印证证监会新政的合理性。此外,如果盈利性与分红有一定额关系,投资者也可以根据直观的业绩指标来预测企业的现金股利,指导自身的理性投资。本文的主体部分主要包括两个,一部分是理论分析,一部分是实证分析。在理论分析部分,整理归纳了国内外股利政策理论、我国现有股利政策以及影响股利政策分配的因素,其中就盈利性因素进行了展开说明。之后分析了我国上市公司现在的分红水平,与国外成熟资本市场分别就分红占比、分红比率和股息率横向对比,找出国内外分红特征以及差距,分析原因。最后根据证监会2011年木的分红新政,分析新政发布原因,观察上市公司的响应情况,未来股利支付水平的发展趋势。在实证研究部分,首先选取样本空间、对样本特征进行分析,提出假设条件,设定变量并对变量特征进行分析：然后建立模型,对模型进行分年度回归分析,分析回归结果并进行有关指标的显著性检验。最后得到的结论是分配现金股利的上市公司的业绩总体上要优于未分配现金股利的上市公司,业绩好的分配股利可能性更大,但这并不表明不分现金股利、的公司业绩一定不好。在具体分析业绩对股利的影响关系时,发现现金股利支付水平与盈利水平的关系并不呈完全的正相关关系,除了每股收益、净资产收益率、流动比率与每股现金股利明显正相关外,其余指标并不能表明业绩越好,分配股利越多,这可能是由于仍存在影响股市健康发展的不利现象,有部分公司连续数年不分股利,也有部分公司由于融资等需要超能力分配股利,可能导致了现金股利与盈利性的关系并不稳定。影响现金股利支付的还有盈利性以外的因素,比如股权结构,未来融资需要等。由实证结果我们可以看到,其实我国上市公司的分红总体上与盈利水平相关联,并不是之前人们一直认为的公司有大量的盈利但不分红,证监会的分红新政也就是在强化一下公司的分红机制,并没有对分红有强制性的要求。投资者仍可以通过业绩指标来判断企业现金支付水平
[Abstract]:Abstract: as one of the corporate financial decisions, dividend policy has always been the focus of attention in the theoretical and practical circles. As dividend policy is closely related to shareholders' own interests, shareholders pay close attention to the company's dividend policy, especially the cash dividend. It has always been considered by the public that listed companies are profitable but not dividends. For this reason, the Securities Regulatory Commission has also issued a new policy to emphasize the importance of dividends. This article is aimed at this phenomenon by using actual data. This paper tries to find out the relationship between profitability and cash dividend payment level of listed companies in China, and to judge whether the phenomenon of high profit and low dividend is a common phenomenon, which can also confirm the rationality of the new policy of CSRC. In addition, If there is a fixed relationship between profitability and dividends, investors can also predict the cash dividend of an enterprise according to intuitive performance indicators and guide their rational investment. The main body of this paper consists of two parts, one is theoretical analysis, the other is empirical analysis. The present dividend policy and the factors affecting the distribution of dividend policy in China, including the profit-making factor, are explained, and then the current dividend level of listed companies in our country is analyzed, which is compared with the foreign mature capital market. Comparing dividend ratio with dividend rate horizontally, find out the characteristics and gap between domestic and foreign dividend distribution, analyze the reasons. Finally, according to the new policy of the Securities Regulatory Commission on 2011, analyze the reasons for the release of the new policy, observe the response of listed companies. In the part of empirical research, firstly, the sample space is selected to analyze the sample characteristics, the hypothesis conditions are put forward, the variables are set up and the characteristics of the variables are analyzed, and then the model is established. Annual regression analysis was carried out to analyze the regression results and to test the significance of relevant indicators. Finally, the conclusion is that the performance of listed companies that distribute cash dividends is generally better than that of listed companies with undistributed cash dividends, and those with good performance are more likely to distribute dividends, but this does not mean that they are not divided into cash dividends. When analyzing the effect of performance on dividend, we find that the relationship between cash dividend payment level and profit level is not completely positive, except earnings per share, net asset return, Except that the current ratio is positively correlated with the cash dividend per share, the remaining indicators do not indicate that the better the performance, the more dividends are distributed. This may be due to the fact that there is still an adverse phenomenon affecting the healthy development of the stock market, and some companies do not divide dividends for several years in a row. Some companies may have unstable relationship between cash dividends and profitability because of the need to allocate dividends in excess of their ability to allocate dividends, such as financing. There are also factors other than profitability, such as equity structure, that affect the payment of cash dividends. From the empirical results, we can see that, in fact, the dividends of listed companies in our country are generally related to the level of profits. It is not the fact that people always thought that companies had a lot of profits but no dividends. The new bonus policy of CSRC is also strengthening the company's dividend mechanism, and there is no mandatory requirement for dividends. Investors can still judge the level of cash payment by performance indicators
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

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