中国信贷市场的配适性分析

发布时间：2018-02-23 21:22

本文关键词： 最大似然估计非均衡模型信贷市场　出处：《统计研究》2010年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了研究中国信贷市场供求配适性状况,以及造成中国信贷投放总量错配的主要因素,文章利用1997-2009年2季度中国信贷市场季度数据,采用最大似然方法估计信贷供求非均衡模型参数,实证结果表明:①信贷供给小于信贷需求为32个季度,信贷供给大于信贷需求为15个季度,其中1997-2001年以及2005-2007年存在严重的供小于求现象;而2002-2004年及2008年3季度以来存在信贷供大于求现象,其中2009年第1季度信贷超额供给占观察到的实际信贷量的比例为18.37%;②中国信贷市场上银行信贷能力是影响信贷供给的重要变量,银行信贷能力越高,社会上的贷款就越多,而2009年以来的信贷大幅投放已经超过了银行的实际信贷能力。
[Abstract]:In order to study the supply and demand fit of China's credit market and the main factors that cause the mismatch of the total amount of credit in China, the paper makes use of the quarterly data of China's credit market in the second quarter of 1997-2009. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the disequilibrium model parameters of credit supply and demand. The empirical results show that the credit supply is smaller than the credit demand for 32 quarters, and the credit supply is greater than the credit demand for 15 quarters. In the period 1997-2001 and 2005-2007, there was a serious shortage of supply and demand, while since 2002-2004 and the third quarter of 2008, there has been an oversupply of credit. In in the first quarter of 2009, the proportion of excess supply of credit to the actual amount of credit observed was 18.370.The credit capacity of banks in China's credit market is an important variable affecting the supply of credit. The higher the credit capacity of banks, the more loans they have in society. Since 2009, credit lending has outstripped the banks' actual credit capabilities.
【作者单位】：上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院;中国人民银行;
【分类号】：F832.4

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