欧洲主权债务危机对中欧（元区）贸易的影响

发布时间：2018-02-25 00:30

本文关键词： 欧洲主权债务危机中欧贸易服装贸易机械贸易　出处：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：欧元区是我国对外贸易的重要伙伴国,中欧(元区)贸易对我国经济发展至关重要。然而自2009年12月爆发的欧洲主权债务危机使得欧元区各国经济衰退、失业率上升,中欧贸易摩擦不断加剧,中欧贸易面临较大的挑战。本文通过分析中国与欧元区贸易产品结构,选取了服装及衣着附件和通用工业机械设备及零件行业,采用2009年第四季度至2011年第四季度的相关数据,对欧洲主权债务危机对中国与欧元区贸易的影响进行了实证研究。研究表明：第一,欧元区各国经济增长放缓是影响中欧(元区)贸易的最主要的因素,欧元区各国国内生产总值每下降1个百分点,将引起中国对欧元区机械设备的出口总额下降3.8个百分点,进口总额下降6.08个百分点,而引起的中国对欧元区服装出口总额的下降幅度为2.85个百分点。第二,相对于收入渠道,欧洲主权债务危机通过汇率渠道对中欧(元区)贸易的影响较小,人民币对欧元汇率每降低1%,在短期内将会增加以欧元计价的我国对欧元区各国的服装出口贸易额的1.01%,而其对中欧(元区)机械设备贸易的影响不显著。第三,欧元区各国股票价格指数的变动对中国与欧元区各国出口贸易产生显著影响,实证结果表明欧元区各国股票指数每降低1%,将会引起我国对欧(元区)服装出口贸易总额下降0.34%；我国对欧(元区)机械设备出口贸易总额下降0.49%。
[Abstract]:The euro zone is an important partner of China's foreign trade, and trade between China and Europe is vital to China's economic development. However, since the European sovereign debt crisis broke out in December 2009, the European sovereign debt crisis has led to a recession and an increase in unemployment across the euro zone. Trade frictions between China and the EU are intensifying, and China-EU trade is facing greater challenges. Based on the analysis of the product structure of trade between China and the euro area, this paper selects clothing and clothing accessories, general industrial machinery and equipment and parts industry, and adopts the relevant data from in the fourth quarter of 2009 to in the fourth quarter of 2011. An empirical study on the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on the trade between China and the euro zone has been carried out. The results show that:. First, the slowdown in economic growth in the euro zone countries is the most important factor affecting trade between China and the EU (yuan region). For every 1 percentage point of decline in the gross domestic product of the countries in the euro zone, It will cause China's total exports of machinery and equipment to the euro zone to fall by 3.8 percentage points and imports by 6.08 percentage points, while China's total exports of clothing to the euro zone will fall by 2.85 percentage points. Second, compared to the income channel, the European sovereign debt crisis has a relatively small impact on trade between China and Europe through the exchange rate channel. A drop of one yuan against the euro rate in the short term will increase the volume of China's clothing export trade in euros to the euro zone countries, and its impact on the trade in machinery and equipment between China and Europe is not significant. Third, the changes in the stock price indices of the euro zone countries have had a significant impact on China's export trade with the euro zone countries. The empirical results show that the decrease of the stock index of each country in the euro zone will cause the total amount of China's clothing export to Europe (Yuan) to drop by 0.34, and the total export of machinery and equipment to Europe by 0.49.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F815;F825

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