企业互保融资的顺周期效应

发布时间：2018-02-28 11:25

本文关键词： 互保顺周期门限模型风险警示　出处：《上海金融》2013年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：经验表明,作为解决小微企业融资过程中缺乏抵押品问题的有效方式,信用担保贷款(互保)融资存在明显的顺周期效应,即在经济上行周期,互保主要发挥风险消释的正面作用;当经济下行至一定程度时,互保主要发挥风险传染的负面作用,这与引发金融危机的次贷类金融衍生品有较大的相似性。本文通过建立门限回归模型,对企业互保融资顺周期效应的存在性予以了证实;从GDP增长率、工业用电率增长率、消费增长率三方面提出了互保正面、负面作用相互转换的门限值;同时利用门限值分析建立了用于衡量实际经济发展情况的风险预警体系。最后提出了针对性较强的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Experience has shown that as an effective way to solve the problem of lack of collateral in the financing process of small and micro enterprises, credit guaranteed loan (mutual insurance) financing has obvious procyclical effect, that is, in the upward cycle of economy, Mutual insurance mainly plays a positive role in risk elimination and interpretation. When the economy is down to a certain extent, mutual insurance mainly plays a negative role in risk contagion. This is similar to the sub-prime financial derivatives that caused the financial crisis. The existence of procyclical effect of mutual insurance financing is confirmed by establishing threshold regression model, which is based on the GDP growth rate, industrial power rate growth rate, industrial power consumption rate growth rate, industrial power consumption growth rate, industrial electricity consumption growth rate, and industrial power consumption growth rate. In the three aspects of consumption growth rate, the threshold value of positive and negative effects is put forward, and the risk early warning system to measure the actual economic development is established by using threshold value analysis. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行台州市中心支行;
【分类号】：F830.5

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