人民币汇率变动对就业的效应分析

发布时间：2018-03-01 05:18

本文关键词： 汇率调整就业结构制度选择 VAR模型　出处：《中国海洋大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国市场机制的不断完善，金融体系的不断创新发展，汇率调整变动对市场经济结构的影响越来越显著。而就业结构调整优化是经济持续增长的推动力，我国就业结构中存在的突出问题就是产业中自主创新能力不足，资源能源消耗偏高，服务业虽发展迅速但明显落后。要加快就业结构的优化又面临着诸多挑战，如结构优化成本上升，与就业压力的矛盾加大，开放带来的调整空间缩小等。因而单纯就业结构的调整十分困难，但在新的经济形势下，人民币汇率的快速升值使就业结构加快了调整的步伐，推动产业的优化和升级。本文研究以汇率变动对就业结构的影响为主线，共分为六个部分。第一部分说明了本研究的目的和意义，以及所采用的方法；第二部分主要说明了建国以来我国所采用的汇率制度，将这种选择分为计划经济、转轨经济、市场经济和目前的转型经济四个时期，并分别说明这四个时期汇率选择对就业的影响；第三部分主要论述了汇率调整对就业结构的理论综述，从微观、中观、宏观三个角度对国内外的研究进行了整理分析。在微观方面主要从利益最大化和消费者效用最大化两方面出发，中观方面主要从行业角度和传导渠道来说明汇率调整对就业的影响，而对汇率制度的选择、外部冲击等划归为宏观角度。在分析了国内外对该领域的研究后，由于日本和韩国经济发展路径与我国的相似性，本文特别研究了两国汇率制度的调整对其本国就业的影响，希望在此基础上为我国带来一定的借鉴经验；第五部分是实证部分，首先对各种研究方法进行了比较分析，论证各种实证方法的优缺点，选择了VAR向量自回归模型，其次对模型进行理论假设，，公式描述等，建立计量模型，最后就是对数据选取，进行描述性和相关性分析，并给与变量一个外部冲击，进行脉冲反映，以此来说明外部汇率变动对就业总量的变化量，得出最后结论；最后一部分是对全文的总结，以及对我国就业前景的展望。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of the market mechanism and the continuous innovation and development of the financial system, the effect of the exchange rate adjustment on the market economic structure is becoming more and more significant, and the adjustment and optimization of the employment structure is the driving force of the sustained economic growth. The outstanding problems in the employment structure of our country are insufficient independent innovation ability in industry, high consumption of resources and energy, rapid development of service industry but obvious backwardness. There are many challenges to accelerate the optimization of employment structure. For example, the cost of structural optimization is rising, the contradiction with employment pressure is increasing, and the adjustment space brought about by opening up is reduced. Therefore, it is very difficult to adjust the structure of employment alone, but in the new economic situation, The rapid appreciation of RMB exchange rate accelerates the adjustment of employment structure and promotes the optimization and upgrading of industry. This paper focuses on the influence of exchange rate changes on the employment structure, which is divided into six parts. The first part explains the purpose and significance of this study and the methods adopted. The second part mainly explains the exchange rate system adopted by our country since the founding of the people's Republic of China. It divides this choice into four periods: planned economy, transitional economy, market economy and current transition economy. The third part mainly discusses the theory of exchange rate adjustment on employment structure, from the micro, meso, This paper analyzes the domestic and foreign research from three macroscopic angles. In the micro aspect, it mainly starts from the two aspects of maximizing the benefit and maximizing the utility of the consumer. From the angle of industry and transmission channel, the influence of exchange rate adjustment on employment is explained, while the choice of exchange rate system and external shock are classified as macro angle. After analyzing the domestic and foreign research in this field, Because of the similarity between Japan and South Korea's economic development path and China's, this paper especially studies the influence of the adjustment of exchange rate regime on the employment of Japan and South Korea, hoping to bring some experience to our country on this basis; part 5th is the empirical part. Firstly, this paper compares and analyzes various research methods, demonstrates the advantages and disadvantages of various empirical methods, selects the VAR vector autoregressive model, and then establishes the econometric model by theoretical hypothesis and formula description, and finally selects the data. Descriptive and correlation analysis, and give variables an external shock, pulse reflection, to explain the external exchange rate changes on the total amount of employment changes, the final conclusion; the last part is a summary of the full text, And the prospect of employment in China.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F249.21;F224

【相似文献】