卢布与人民币汇率对俄中贸易的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 03:29

本文选题：IMF　切入点：回归分析　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：进入新世纪，区域经济的重要性和必要性同全球经济一体化以相同的趋势同步发展。俄中作为亚欧大陆上两相邻的大国，在双边政治关系和地区间经贸往来，都有着非常密切的往来。相比较两国间的政治合作，两国贸易水平还有进一步提升的空间。如今两国经济在快速发展的新环境下，加强俄中贸易合作水平十分重要也十分必要。人民币的汇率变化经历了上世纪八十年代大幅贬值、九十年代逐步升值、本世纪初实际贬值和浮动汇率制度下逐步升值的变化。俄罗斯卢布汇率政策。也经历了从计划到市场再到政府干预的变化。汇率的变化对贸易水平有着深远的影响，研究俄中两国汇率变化对两国贸易的作用有着重要的现实意义。本文在学习国内外有关研究成果的基础上，对俄中两国汇率现状和贸易水平做了全面的分析，并运用回归分析方法，分析汇率和其他影响因子对贸易的影响作用水平。为了进一步改善俄中贸易现状，俄中两国应重新定位两国的贸易合作关系，在俄中边境建立保税区和经济技术合作区，进一步优化俄中贸易的商品结构，，在目前两国最具合作潜力的能源贸易上深化合作，并提供良好的政策、金融支持使得两国投资便利化。
[Abstract]:In the new century, the importance and necessity of regional economy have developed in the same direction as global economic integration. As two neighboring powers in the Eurasian continent, Russia and China are engaged in bilateral political relations and inter-regional economic and trade exchanges. There is still room for further improvement in the level of trade between the two countries compared with the political cooperation between the two countries. Today, the two countries' economies are in a new environment of rapid development. It is very important and necessary to strengthen the level of Russian-Chinese trade cooperation. The exchange rate of the RMB experienced a sharp depreciation in -20s and gradually appreciated in 90s. The real depreciation at the beginning of this century and the gradual appreciation under the floating exchange rate regime. The Russian rouble exchange rate policy... Has also experienced changes from planning to the market to government intervention. The changes in the exchange rate have a profound impact on the level of trade. It is of great practical significance to study the effect of the exchange rate changes between Russia and China on the trade between the two countries. On the basis of studying the relevant research results at home and abroad, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the current situation and trade level of the exchange rate between Russia and China, and applies the regression analysis method. In order to further improve the current situation of Russia-China trade, Russia and China should reposition their trade cooperation relations and establish bonded zones and economic and technological cooperation zones along the Russian-Chinese border. Further optimize the commodity structure of Russian-Chinese trade, deepen cooperation in the energy trade, which has the most potential cooperation between the two countries, and provide good policies, financial support to facilitate investment between the two countries.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F835.12;F755.12;F752.7

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