成因变迁、刘易斯拐点与通货膨胀

发布时间：2018-03-05 19:39

本文选题：通货膨胀　切入点：流动性过剩　出处：《南开大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：21世纪以来，我国先后发生了三轮通货膨胀，引起了社会各界的广泛关注，学术界对通货膨胀问题也进行了大量的研究，对于通货膨胀的认识也不断多元化，在传统货币主义和菲利普斯曲线分析的基础上衍生出了国际大宗价格输入、通胀预期和劳动成本上升等多种通货膨胀成因的分析。对通货膨胀成因的界定、通胀成因是否发生了变迁等问题是相关研究的核心关注点。2000年以来，中国经济最大的变化就是对外开放程度大幅提升，这不但带来了经济的持续快速增长，也带来了输入性通货膨胀问题，而且加快了城乡转移和刘易斯拐点的出现。而正是刘易斯拐点的出现使巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应在中国开始发挥效力，在名义汇率并未充分浮动的背景下，实际汇率的升值压力转化为通货膨胀压力，并使通货膨胀的结构性特征加剧，农产品价格的涨幅明显超越服务类和工业品价格，是推动整体通胀上升的主要动力。本论文以最近十年中国通货膨胀的成因及其变迁为研究对象，在对过往通货膨胀研究和通货膨胀理论的发展路径进行梳理的基础上，从中国经济对外开放度提升、带来刘易斯拐点出现并推动通胀上升的角度，进行了系统而全面的研究。为了突出通货膨胀成因的变迁和对以往研究的承上启下，本论文首先对过往通货膨胀成因的研究进行全面的归纳和总结，并对相关结论、研究方法、理论模型和实证数据等问题进行了详尽和缜密的梳理与比较。其次本论文将各种通货膨胀成因置于同一模型中进行综合性检验，以找出具有显著解释能力的变量。本文首先系统的计算了货币成因变量，在重新核算广义货币供给之后，又通过分析流动性需求计算流动性过剩系数。此后又选取了总需求、输入性通胀、劳动力成本和通胀预期等成因理论的代表性变量，并将它们置于扩展菲利普斯曲线模型中，采用分布滞后模型的方式进行回归分析。随后我们采用SVAR模型来分析变量间相互的动态联系，以验证菲利普斯模型的回归结果，并借助结构性脉冲响应和方差分解等分析方法，来揭示各种成因对通货膨胀的影响程度。综合两种实证检验的结果，2000年以来随着我国对外开放度的提升，通货膨胀的成因发生了变迁，以往的经济过热和货币超发对通胀的影响逐渐减弱，而国际工业品价格输入和农民工工资上涨成为对通胀有显著影响的成因，并且对通胀变化的解释比例更高。再次，本论文对农民工工资上涨推升通货膨胀这一成因进行了更加深入的研究。通过观察东亚国家的历史经验，作者认为对外开放程度的提升，带来城乡转移加速导致刘易斯拐点出现，并使巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效用逐渐生效是农民工工资推升通胀的理论基础和传导渠道。作者在日本学者Minami提出的5个判定准则的基础上，进行了修正和扩展，提出了本文判定中国经济何时跨越刘易斯第一拐点的5个准则。根据实证结果本论文认为中国经济在2004年左右越过了刘易斯第一拐点，但没有充分的证据说明中国经济接近或达到了刘易斯第二拐点。最后，本论文以巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应为理论基础，将二元经济理论引入Rogoff模型，将农业部门单独考虑，并去除了各部门工资相等的假定，创新性的以刘易斯第一拐点为界分别推导了劳动力过剩阶段和劳动力短缺阶段的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森模型。在名义汇率并未充分浮动的背景下我们忽略国外部门，即实际汇率的升值压力主要体现为本国的通胀压力。之后对两阶段模型分别进行验证，结果表明在1991-2003年的劳动力过剩阶段，巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应在我国并未完全体现，工业部门相对农业部门劳动生产率的提升对通货膨胀有一定的推动作用，但可贸易的工业部门相对不可贸易的服务业部门劳动生产率的提升对通胀没有影响。而在2005-2010年的劳动力短缺阶段，巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应开始发挥作用，农业劳动生产率、工业部门相对农业部门劳动生产率的提升都对通胀具有显著的推动作用。最后我们简单阐述了上述现象的传导机制，即一国走过刘易斯第一拐点之后，最重要的特征就是农业部门的工资水平开始由农业劳动生产率决定，，这与工业部门的工资决定机制趋于一致，这一转变带来了部门工资开始趋同，并带来劳动生产率较低的农业部门（不可贸易部门）产品价格相对于劳动生产率较高的工业部门（可贸易部门）产品价格提升，最终推动整体通货膨胀水平的上升。
[Abstract]:Since twenty-first Century, China has three rounds of inflation, has aroused widespread concern in the community, the academic circles have done a lot of research on the problem of inflation, the inflation also continue to diversify, based on the analysis of the traditional monetarist and Phillips curve are derived on the international commodity price input, analysis of inflation expectations and labor costs the rise and other causes of inflation. The definition of the causes of inflation, the inflation causes the change of the related research focus of.2000 years, Chinese change is the biggest economic openness increases, which not only brought a sustained and rapid economic growth, has also brought inflation problems, and to speed up the emergence of urban and rural transfer and Lewis turning point. And it is the inflection point Lewis Lhasa - Samuelson Pakistan The effect of taking full effect in Chinese, in the nominal exchange rate is not fully floating under the background of the real exchange rate appreciation pressure into inflation pressure, increasing structural characteristics and make the inflation, the prices of agricultural products rose significantly beyond the service and prices of industrial products, is the main driving force for overall inflation. In this paper, the origin and evolution China inflation for the last ten years as the research object, and analyzes on the development path of the past research on inflation and inflation theory, from China economic openness, bring Lewis inflection point and push inflation angle, conducts a systematic and comprehensive research.
In order to highlight the changes in the causes of inflation and continuity of previous research, this paper studies on the causes of inflation in the past to conduct a comprehensive summary of the relevant conclusions, research methods, theory models and empirical data for a detailed and careful analysis and comparison.
Secondly, this thesis will conduct a variety of causes of inflation in the same model of comprehensive inspection, in order to find out the most explanatory variables. This paper calculated the monetary variable after accounting of broad money supply, and through the analysis of demand for liquidity excess liquidity. Then the calculation of the coefficient of total demand, input the representative theory of inflation, labor costs and inflation expectations of the variables, and placed them under the extended Phillips curve model, using the distributed lag model by way of regression analysis. Then we use SVAR model to analyze the dynamic relationship between variables, the regression results show the Phillips model, and the structural impulse response and variance decomposition analysis method, to reveal the influence of various causes of inflation. The comprehensive results of two kinds of empirical test, 2000 Since China's opening up to enhance the degree of change, the causes of inflation, the economic overheating and super currency impact on inflation gradually weakened, while the international commodity prices and rising wages of migrant workers become the origin of the input has a significant impact on inflation, and inflation changes explain the higher proportion.
Again, this paper makes further research on the migrant workers wage inflation. This causes by observing the historical experience of East Asian countries, the author believes that the opening degree of upgrading, urban and rural bring to accelerate the transfer of leading Lewis inflection point, and the Barra SA - Samuelson utility effect gradually is the theoretical foundation and transmission channels to push the wages of migrant workers the rise of inflation. 5 the criteria proposed by Japanese scholars author Minami, revised and extended, this paper determines 5 criteria China when the economy across the Lewis first inflection point. According to the empirical results, this paper believes that the economic China Lewis first crossed the inflection point in 2004, but there is no evidence that China economy close to or reached the Lewis second inflection point.
Finally, the Israeli Palestinian Lhasa - Samuelson effect as the theoretical basis, will be two yuan in economic theory into the Rogoff model, the agricultural sector will be considered separately, and remove the assumption that the sector wages equal, innovative to Lewis the first inflection point is bounded derived labor excess phase and labor shortage stage Pakistan Lhasa Samuelson model in the nominal exchange rate is not fully floating under the background that we ignore the foreign sector, the real exchange rate appreciation pressure is mainly reflected in domestic inflation pressure. After the two stage model were verified, results show that in excess of 1991-2003 years of labor stage, Pakistan Lhasa - Samuelson effect is not fully reflected in China's industrial sector, relative improvement the Department of agriculture labor productivity has a positive impact on inflation, but the trade industrial sector can not trade in service industry Department of labor productivity improvement has no effect on inflation. In the 2005-2010 years of labor shortages, Lhasa Pakistan - Samuelson effect began to play a role in agricultural labor productivity, industrial sector relative to the agricultural sector labor productivity has significant effect on pushing inflation. Finally we briefly discusses the transmission mechanism of the above phenomenon, namely in the past Lewis first after the inflection point, the most important feature is the agricultural sector wages started decided by agricultural labor productivity, and the industrial sector wage decision mechanism consistent, this change brings sector wages are beginning to converge, and bring the low labor productivity of the agricultural sector (non tradable sectors) relative to the price of labor higher productivity of the industrial sector (trade sector) product price increase, and ultimately promote the increase in the overall level of inflation.

【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F224

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