“广场协议”后日本货币政策操作分析与启示

发布时间：2018-03-08 00:18

本文选题：广场协议　切入点：货币政策　出处：《浙江大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：第二次世界大战后,日本经济在经历了短暂的恢复期之后,便一直保持了高速增长,到20世纪80年代初期,经济实力的不断上升和贸易顺差的迅速扩张使得日本一跃成为世界第二大贸易国和最大的贸易顺差国。同期美国贸易赤字和财政赤字急剧积累,并且首次从债权国转变为债务国,而日本则成为美国贸易逆差的最大来源国和最大债权国,导致美国国内担忧情绪和贸易保护主义的滋长。在此背景下,西方五国集团在纽约广场饭店召开了财长和中央银行行长会议,会上达成了经济调整的一系列政策,包括各国央行行长关于各国货币对美元有序升值的承诺,史称“广场协议”。“广场协议”后,各国对外汇市场进行了干预,其中尤其以日本政府对外汇市场的干预程度最大,短短三个月中日元升值了20%。到1987年底,日元兑美元升值幅度达到100%。日元升值幅度超出了日本的预期和承受范围,于是日本政府多次下调贴现率并将2.5%超低贴现率维持了27个月,以刺激经济,遏制日元升值。而事实上,日本GDP在1986年底已恢复增长,长时期的超宽松货币政策导致日本国内流动性过剩,在实体经济基本成熟的情况下,资金流入资本市场,带来了股价和房地产价格的暴涨,促成了泡沫经济的生成和膨胀。泡沫经济的急剧刺破又对日本经济造成巨大打击,使其陷入衰退泥潭,至今仍无法恢复当初的辉煌。当前的中国经济发展状况与80年代的日本有着极大的相似之处,经济高速发展和贸易顺差持续扩大这两大因素带来了本币升值的国内外压力,随之而来的是货币政策与汇率政策的矛盾。通过本文的分析发现日本货币政策操作的几次失误是导致泡沫经济产生的重要因素,同时也为我国货币政策操作带来了一系列的启示,其中最重要的是要维护货币政策的独立性。随着中国同其他国家经济交往的深入,享受国际分工和合作的成果的同时,与这些国家经济利益的冲突也必然增多。为实现自身利益目标,这些国家可能会对中国的国内政策施加压力,在这种情况下,我国不能让货币政策受制于外部压力或是国际协调,应坚定立场明确态度,坚决维护货币政策的独立性。
[Abstract]:After World War II, after a brief recovery period, Japan's economy kept growing at a high speed until the beginning of 1980s. The rising economic power and the rapid expansion of the trade surplus have made Japan the world's second largest trading nation and the world's largest trade surplus. During the same period, the United States' trade and fiscal deficits have accumulated sharply. And for the first time, from a creditor to a debtor, Japan became the largest source and creditor of the United States' trade deficit, leading to concerns in the United States and the growth of protectionism. At a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors at the Plaza Hotel in New York, the Group of five of the Western countries reached a series of policies for economic adjustment, including central bank governors' commitment to orderly appreciation of their currencies against the US dollar. History has called the "Plaza Agreement." after the "Plaza Agreement," various countries intervened in the foreign exchange market, especially the Japanese government's intervention in the foreign exchange market, with the yen rising by 20 percent in just three months. By end of 1987, The yen rose more than 100 yuan against the dollar. The appreciation of the yen exceeded Japan's expectations and range, so the Japanese government cut the discount rate several times and maintained the 2.5% ultra-low discount rate for 27 months to stimulate the economy. In fact, Japan's GDP resumed growth in end of 1986, with a long period of ultra-loose monetary policy leading to excess domestic liquidity and capital markets as the real economy matured. The boom in stock prices and real estate prices contributed to the creation and expansion of the bubble economy, which, in turn, hit the Japanese economy hard, plunging it into recession. The current situation of China's economic development is very similar to that of Japan in 80s. The rapid development of the economy and the continued expansion of the trade surplus have brought about domestic and foreign pressure on the appreciation of the local currency. The following is the contradiction between monetary policy and exchange rate policy. Through the analysis of this paper, it is found that several mistakes in the operation of Japanese monetary policy are the important factors leading to the bubble economy. At the same time, it has also brought a series of revelations to China's monetary policy operation, the most important of which is to safeguard the independence of monetary policy. With the deepening of economic exchanges between China and other countries, China enjoys the fruits of international division of labor and cooperation. Conflicts with the economic interests of these countries are also bound to increase. In order to achieve their own interests, these countries may exert pressure on China's domestic policies, in which case, China should not let monetary policy be subject to external pressure or international coordination, but should stand firm and stand clear and firmly safeguard the independence of monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F823.13;F822.0

【相似文献】