我国汇率波动与核心通货膨胀关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 01:09

本文选题：核心通货膨胀　切入点：名义有效汇率　出处：《河北大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文首先对我国2001年1月至2011年7月期间CPI及其各分类指数进行描述性统计分析，再采用H-P滤波方法对我国CPI进行短期波动和长期趋势分解，，并将其分解的长期趋势作为我国核心通货膨胀。最后在考虑汇率对通货膨胀传导途径的基础上，选取名义有效汇率和外汇储备变量，采用向量误差修正（VEC）模型测量我国汇率波动对核心通货膨胀的短期和长期的影响程度及方向，对其进行脉冲效应分析，从而较准确的衡量二者之间的关系。目前我国面临国际上欧洲债务危机、国内严峻的通货膨胀和人民币不断升值的多重压力，本文围绕预防和降低通胀预期、逐步推进人民币汇率市场化进程、加快利率市场化进程和加强外汇储备的风险管理四个方面，对如何稳定人民币币值提出一些相关建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the descriptive statistical analysis of CPI and its classification indices from January 2001 to July 2011 in China is carried out, and then the short term fluctuation and long term trend decomposition of CPI in China are carried out by H-P filtering method. Finally, on the basis of considering the transmission of exchange rate to inflation, the nominal effective exchange rate and foreign exchange reserve variables are selected. The vector error correction (VEC) model is used to measure the short and long term influence degree and direction of the exchange rate fluctuation on core inflation in China. The pulse effect is analyzed and the relationship between them is measured more accurately. At present, our country is facing the international debt crisis in Europe, the domestic severe inflation and the multiple pressures of RMB appreciation. This paper focuses on the prevention and reduction of inflation expectations, and gradually advances the marketization process of RMB exchange rate. Accelerating the process of interest rate marketization and strengthening the risk management of foreign exchange reserves, this paper puts forward some relevant suggestions on how to stabilize the value of RMB currency.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F822.5

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