转型期中国利率政策效果研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 02:17

  本文选题：利率政策效果　切入点：操作工具　出处：《南京大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：利率是货币经济中最受关注的一个经济变量。自亚当.斯密以来,经济学家就一直非常关注利率及利率政策在经济运行中的作用,魏克赛尔(1898)明确地提出了关于利率政策的"三个命题",凯恩斯将利率置于货币政策传导机制的核心地位,现代中央银行更是将利率政策作为重要的货币政策频频用于宏观经济运行调控。中国人民银行自成立以来就高度重视利率政策在调控宏观经济运行中的重要作用;1984年中国人民银行独立行使中央银行职能以来,更是多次变动调控利率以实现稳定宏观经济运行的政策目的。一国中央银行实施利率政策的效果,是国内外学者长期讨论的热点。关于利率政策效果,理论界尚未取得一致共识。这里,似乎产生了一个矛盾的现象:即利率政策存在理论上的纷争和实践中的重视。那么,转型期我国利率政策效果究竟表现如何?应该从哪些层面来全面把握利率政策效果?我国利率政策效果制约的关键性因素是什么?如何提升我国利率政策效果?我国利率政策未来会发生怎样的变化和转型?显然,系统深入研究利率政策效果,有利于丰富转型期我国利率政策的理论研究,为后续研究和相关研究提供有价值的理论参考。同时,也为我国中央银行利率政策实践提供理论依据,推动我国利率制度变迁和货币政策操作规程转型。立足货币政策操作工具角度,结合利率传导机制和利率制度变迁,本文从经济体系角度(经济主体行为层面、产业与区域层面)、货币操作规程角度以及货币政策分析角度来较为系统地探讨利率政策效果。为此,全文研究安排如下:第一章主要界定了利率政策的内涵与特征,并阐述了研究思路、创新点及研究不足。第二章围绕利率政策效果梳理了国内外有关研究文献。第三章阐述了转型期我国利率政策传导机制和利率制度变迁理论。第四章研究了利率政策对居民储蓄、居民消费、企业投资、银行信贷、企业进出口等经济主体行为的影响效果。第五章从产业和区域两个层面对比考察利率政策效果。第六章从操作目标、中间目标和最终目标三个层次对比考察了率政策效果。第七章采用沃什货币政策分析模型,从封闭经济条件和开放经济条件对比考察利率政策效果。第八章为结论与政策建议部分。本文试图从以上方面拓展现有研究,并得出以下主要结论:第一,认为利率政策具有货币政策、中介目标、传导机制、操作工具、制度安排等不同层面的内涵;指出利率政策效果可以从定义层面、操作规程层面、作用的经济层面、制度层面来进行分类;发现从货币政策操作工具角度来研究利率政策效果成为主流趋势。第二,本文通过1978-1995和1996-2011两个时间段来对比研究,发现利率政策制度变迁能够提升利率政策效果。同时,本文根据利率政策效果的产业和区域差异性,提出中央银行应当实施产业差别化和区域差别化的利率政策,以提高利率政策的针对性和有效性。第三,本文考察了转型期我国中央银行实际运用的三大工具对操作目标、中间目标以及政策目标影响的数量效果和时间效果,发现利率政策对中间目标、最终目标的影响效果好。第四,本文引入基于新凯恩斯主义框架的沃什货币政策分析模型,研究发现利率政策操作具有平滑性特征,在封闭经济条件更加关注通胀偏离,在开放经济条件下更加关注美联储基金利率波动。第五,本文研究发现,利率政策在我国当前货币政策操作规程中具有其他工具不可替代的重要作用,其操作具有紧盯美联储基金利率的特点。基于国际货币政策操作规程发展趋势,本文提出我国未来应当构建利率政策主导型的货币政策操作规程。货币政策操作规程转型,需要实施政府主导型的强制性利率政策制度变迁,尽快放松利率管制。届时,中央银行制定提出短期资金利率目标,以取代存款基准利率工具,并发挥该利率目标对整个经济运行的基准性和引导力。
[Abstract]:The interest rate is an economic variable most money economy concern. Since Adam Smith, economists have been very concerned about the effect of interest rate and interest rate policy in economic operation, Wicksell (1898) explicitly proposed about the interest rate policy of the "three propositions", Keynes will be the core of the interest rate in monetary policy the transmission mechanism of the modern central banks is the interest rate policy as an important monetary policy for macroeconomic regulation frequently. Since the establishment of the people's Bank of China attaches great importance to the important role in the regulation of interest rate policy in macro economy; since 1984 the people's Bank of China independently exercise the functions of the central bank, is the number of movements in interest rates to achieve control stable macroeconomic policies. A country's central bank interest rate policy implementation effect, is the focus of scholars at home and abroad. A long discussion about the interest rate The effects of policies, the theoretical circle has not yet reached a consensus. Here, seems to have had a paradox: the interest rate policy there are disputes in theoretical and practical importance. Then the effect of interest rate policy of China in transition period shown? Should hold the interest rate policy effect from what level to take what is the key? The factors that affect the effect of China's interest rate policy? How to improve the interest rate policy in China? China's interest rate policy change and transformation will be in the future? Obviously, systematic and thorough research on the effect of interest rate policy, to enrich the theoretical research in transition period of China's interest rate policy, to provide valuable theoretical reference for further research and related research at the same time, also provide a theoretical basis for the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of China, and promote the interest rate of China's institutional transition and monetary policy operation rules. Based on the transformation of monetary policy operation tool And with the transmission mechanism of interest rate and interest rate system changes, from the economic angle system (economic subject behavior level, industry level and regional perspective), it discusses systematically the effect of interest rate policy of monetary operation rules and monetary policy analysis. Therefore, this research is as follows: the first chapter mainly defines the connotation and characteristics of interest rate policy, and expounds the research ideas, innovation and shortage of the research. The second chapter focuses on the carding effect of interest rate policy related literature at home and abroad. The third chapter expounds the transition of China's interest rate policy and interest rate transmission mechanism of institutional change theory. The fourth chapter studies the interest rate policy on household savings, consumption, investment, bank credit and the effect of the behavior of economic subjects such as import and export enterprises. In the fifth chapter, from the perspective of industry and regional two level contrast effect of interest rate policy. The sixth chapter from the operation target, The intermediate target and the ultimate goal of the three levels by comparing the rate policy results. In the seventh chapter, using the Walsh model for monetary policy analysis, from the economic conditions and the open economy closed the comparative study of effect of interest rate policy. The eighth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations. This paper attempts to expand the existing research to the top surface, and the main conclusions are as follows: first, that the interest rate policy with monetary policy, intermediate target, transmission mechanism, operation tools, institutional arrangements and other different connotations; pointed out that the interest rate policy effect from the defined level, operation level, the role of the economic level, the system level classification; found from the angle of operation tool of monetary policy to study the effect of interest rate policy has become the mainstream the trend through 1978-1995. Second, 1996-2011 and two time of comparative study, found that the interest rate policy can raise the interest rate policy of institutional change Results. At the same time, according to the industry and the regional difference of the effect of interest rate policy, the central bank should put forward the implementation of industrial differences and regional interest rate policy, interest rate policy to improve the pertinence and validity. Third, this paper examines the practical use of the Central Bank of China in transition period of three of the operating target, the quantity effect and time effect of intermediate target and policy objectives, found that the interest rate policy on the intermediate target, influence the ultimate goal of the effect is good. Fourth, this paper introduces a new model analysis framework of Walsh Keynes's monetary policy based on the study found that the operation of the interest rate policy has a smooth characteristic, in the closed economy to pay more attention to the inflation deviation in the open the economic conditions to pay more attention to the Fed funds rate volatility. Fifth, this study found that the interest rate policy in China's current monetary policy operating procedures in out There is an important role can not be replaced by other tools, with its operating characteristics at the federal funds rate. The trend of development of international monetary policy based on the rules of operation, this paper proposes that China should build a future interest rate policy oriented monetary policy operation rules. The operation of monetary policy rules requires the implementation of mandatory transformation, the interest rate policy of institutional change dominated by the government as soon as possible, to deregulate interest rates. At that time, the central bank made the short-term funds rate target, to replace the benchmark deposit interest rate instruments, and play the benchmark interest rate to the whole economy and guiding force.

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0
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本文编号：1596142