中小企业信用担保机构风险预警管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 08:14

本文选题：中小企业　切入点：信用担保机构　出处：《山东农业大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在当前世界经济中，中小企业（SmallMediu-size Enterprises,SMEs）的生存和发展是各国经济的重要组成部分。但是，中小企业先天不足，信用级别低，导致融资难成为制约其健康发展的瓶颈因素，这也是一大世界性的难题。中小企业信用担保（SmallMedium-size Enteprises Credit Guarantee，SMECG）作为一种制度安排，成为各国解决中小企业融资难，扶持中小企业发展的重要措施之一。但是，中小企业信用担保是公认的高风险行业，担保机构的风险管理水平是其生存和持续发展最重要的影响因素之一。2007年以来，在由美国“次贷”危机引发的全球性金融危机影响下，中小型企业的生存环境急剧恶化，为中小企业提供融资担保服务的担保机构也难独善其身，担保公司风险管理的任务更加艰巨。由于预警在风险管理中处于先导地位，因此，加强担保机构的风险预警管理，意义更加重大。本文从对中小企业信用担保和风险预警管理的相关理论的梳理入手，在对中小企业信用担保机构风险及风险预警的一般分析基础上，重点研究了模糊风险预警理论及基本框架，设计了中小企业信用担保公司的风险预警管理框架体系，将模糊风险预警引入到SMECGC风险管理进行探索和研究，不但对于丰富和拓宽风险预警管理的应用领域具有一定的理论价值，而且对促进SMECGC的可持续发展具有积极的现实意义。本文的主要内容有7章，从结构上看可分成四个部分：第一部分为第一章绪论。主要阐明选题的背景和意义，对国内、外信用担保及其风险理论文献进行梳理和评述，，介绍本文的研究内容、主要思路及研究方法。第二部分包括第二、三、四章。第二章中小企业信用担保机构风险预警管理的一般分析，主要介绍了中小企业信用担保机构的相关概念及其风险的一般分析，同时，介绍了风险预警的基本知识，为构建中小企业信用担保机构的风险预警体系提供基础。第三章，主要考察和评析了中小企业信用担保机构风险管理现状，通过样本调查分析方式对我国担保风险管理现状、问题及成因进行了深入剖析，为中小企业信用担保机构的风险预警指标筛选打下基础。第四章，运用模糊数学方法构建SMECGC的风险预警模型，主要是运用德尔菲法筛选指标体系，运用AHP层次分析法计算指标权重，最后运用模糊数学计算得出信用担保机构的最终风险程度指数。第三部分包括第五、六章，这是本文的实证部分。第五章，基于第四章构建的中小企业信用担保公司风险预警模型，对泰安市的一家担保机构进行了风险评估，最终得出其风险程度，在此基础上分析了该担保机构的潜在风险因素。第六章，主要分析信用担保机构的风险控制措施。第四部分是第七章，总结了本文的基本观点，指出了下一步的研究方向。本文的主要创新点在于，将风险预警的理论引入了中小企业信用担保机构，并从公司的角度分析中小企业信用担保机构的风险预警问题，同时在方法上主要采用了更为科学的模糊数学分析方法。
[Abstract]:In the current world economy, small and medium-sized enterprises (SmallMediu-size, Enterprises, SMEs) on the survival and development is an important part of national economy. However, the small and medium-sized enterprise credit level is low, congenitally deficient, leading to difficulties in financing has become the bottleneck restricting the healthy development, it is also a worldwide problem.
SmallMedium-size Enteprises Credit Guarantee (SMECG), as an institutional arrangement, has become one of the most important measures to solve the financing difficulties of SMEs and support the development of SMEs.
However, the small and medium-sized enterprise credit guarantee is a high risk industry recognized, the level of risk management mechanism is the guarantee for survival and sustainable development of the most important influencing factors of.2007 years, the impact of the global financial crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime crisis, the small and medium enterprises is the rapid deterioration of the living environment, guarantee institutions to provide financing guarantee service for small and medium-sized enterprises are difficult to own, Guarantee corporation risk management more arduous task. As a result of the warning in the leading position in the risk management, therefore, to strengthen the risk management of security agencies, even more significant.
This paper starts from the related theories of SME credit guarantee and risk management starts, the credit guarantee institutions for small and medium-sized enterprises based on risk analysis and risk early warning, focuses on the fuzzy risk early warning theory and the basic framework, design the framework of risk early warning management of small and medium-sized enterprises of Credit Guarantee Corporation, will be introduced to the fuzzy risk warning SMECGC risk management of exploration and research, not only to enrich and broaden the application field of risk management has certain theoretical value, but also has a positive significance to promote sustainable development of SMECGC.
The main contents of this paper are 7 chapters, which can be divided into four parts from the structure.
The first part is the introduction of the first chapter. It mainly expounds the background and significance of the topic selection, reviews and comments on the literature of domestic and foreign credit guarantee and its risk theory, and introduces the research contents, main ideas and research methods.
The second part includes the second, third, four chapters. The second chapter is the analysis of early warning management of the general SME credit guarantee agency risk, mainly introduced the general analysis, the related concepts of SME credit guarantee institutions and risk at the same time, introduced the basic knowledge of risk warning, risk early warning system provides the basis for the construction of small and medium-sized enterprise credit guarantee institutions third. Chapter mainly investigates and analyzes the SME credit guarantee institutions risk management status, through a sample survey analysis on China's security risk management status, problems and causes of in-depth analysis, to lay the foundation for screening the risk early-warning indicators of SME credit guarantee institutions. In the fourth chapter, using the fuzzy mathematics method to construct the risk early-warning model SMECGC, is the main screening index system by Delphy Fa, using the AHP analytic hierarchy process to calculate the index weight, the use of fuzzy numbers The final risk index of a credit guarantee institution is calculated.
The third part includes fifth, sixth chapters, which is the empirical part of this article. The fifth chapter, the fourth chapter constructs the SME Credit Guarantee Corporation risk early-warning model based on a guarantee agency in Tai'an city conducted risk assessment, finally get the degree of risk, based on the analysis of the potential risk factors of the guarantee institutions. In the sixth chapter, risk the main control measures of credit guarantee institutions.
The fourth part is the seventh chapter, summarizes the basic views of this article, and points out the research direction of the next step.
The main innovation of this paper is to introduce the theory of risk warning into the SME credit guarantee institutions, and analyze the risk early warning problem of SME credit guarantee institutions from the company's perspective. Meanwhile, a more scientific fuzzy mathematical analysis method is adopted.

【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F276.3;F832.4

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