人民币汇率变动对甘肃省进出口贸易影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 23:15

本文选题：人民币汇率　切入点：汇率波动　出处：《北京交通大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：汇率作为一国货币同另一国货币的兑换比率,是实现一国经济内部和外部均衡的重要工具,也是调节国际经济竞争关系最直接、最有效的手段。1973年布雷顿森林体系解体以后,浮动汇率制度下汇率波动性增加,国际贸易增长速度明显放缓,汇率波动对国际贸易量的影响成为经济研究热点之一。 1994年1月1日人民币汇率实现并轨之后,我国实行了以市场供求为基础的、单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制度。2005年7月21日,我国开始实施以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。相比于2005年前面几年保持的汇率水平,人民币汇率的浮动弹性逐渐扩大,汇率波动性增加。另一方面对于甘肃来说,外贸在经济发展中的地位显得日益突出。近两年来是我国汇率变动最频繁的时期,那么,汇率波动增大会对甘肃省外贸的快速发展产生什么样的影响?在这样的背景下,政府应该采取什么样的政策措施?基于以上问题,研究汇率变动对甘肃省进出口贸易的影响具有重要的现实意义和价值。本文在人民币汇率波动不断增加的背景下,分析了人民币汇率对甘肃省进出口贸易的影响。本文分为五个部分,第一部分为绪论。第二部分介绍人民币汇率与进出口贸易的相关概念,并综述汇率变动对外贸影响的主要理论,同时分析了汇率变动对进出口贸易影响的一般规律及其影响因素。第三部分介绍了人民币汇率变动历程,及相应阶段甘肃省进出口贸易的变动情况。第四部分运用计量分析方法,对汇率变动对甘肃省进出口贸易的影响展开实证研究,并得出结论。第五部分提出相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:The exchange rate as a currency with another currency exchange rate, is to realize the internal and external equilibrium of economy is an important tool of regulating the international economic competition the most direct relationship, after the disintegration of the most effective means of.1973 years of the Bretton Woods system, floating exchange rate system the exchange rate volatility increases, the growth rate of international trade is slowing down and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the volume of international trade has become one of the focus of economic research.
After the RMB exchange rate in January 1, 1994 to achieve the merger, China has implemented a market-based, single, managed floating exchange rate system.2005 in July 21st, China began to implement the basis of market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, a managed floating exchange rate system. Compared to 2005 in front of a few years to maintain the exchange rate level, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate gradually expanded, the exchange rate volatility increases. On the other hand, for Gansu, the status of foreign trade in economic development has become increasingly prominent. In recent years China's exchange rate changes is the most frequent period, so the increase of the exchange rate fluctuations will produce what kind of impact on the rapid development of foreign trade in Gansu province? In this context, the government should take what kind of policy measures? Based on the above issues, study the impact of exchange rate movements on the import and export trade of Gansu province has important Practical significance and value.
In this paper, the continuous increase in the RMB exchange rate volatility in the background, analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate on import and export trade of Gansu province. This paper is divided into five parts, the first part is introduction. The second part introduces the related concepts of the RMB exchange rate and import and export trade, exchange rate changes and reviews the main theories of foreign trade influence, and analyzes the changes in general rules and influence factors of the exchange rate impact on the import and export trade. The third part introduces the process of the change of RMB exchange rate, and the corresponding stage of import and export trade of Gansu province changes. The fourth part using the econometric analysis method, an empirical study of the influence of exchange rate on import and export trade of Gansu Province, and puts forward the countermeasures to draw a conclusion. The fifth part suggestions.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6

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