我国养老保险对国民储蓄挤出效应实证研究——代际核算体系模拟测算的视角

发布时间：2018-03-17 13:35

本文选题：国民储蓄　切入点：代际核算　出处：《财经研究》2010年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章根据中国特有的经济社会背景,运用Auerbach等(1991)提出的代际核算方法,设定符合中国国情的参数值,研究衡量中国现行的养老保险制度是否对国民储蓄存在挤出效应。核算结果表明:我国目前的养老保险体系使2007年我国私人消费从92168亿元上升至97059亿元,国民储蓄从122234亿元下降至117343亿元,国民储蓄率从48.99%下降为47.02%。因此中国现行的养老保险体系对国民储蓄存在挤出效应,但挤出效应并不大,而养老保险体系的构建对我国居民消费的提高却有很积极的促进作用,中国应该继续完善养老保险体系。
[Abstract]:According to the unique economic and social background of China and the intergenerational accounting method proposed by Auerbach et al. (1991), the paper sets the parameter values that are suitable for China's national conditions. The study measures whether the current pension insurance system in China has an crowding out effect on national savings. The accounting results show that the current pension insurance system in China increased private consumption from nine trillion two hundred and sixteen billion eight hundred million yuan to nine trillion seven hundred and five billion nine hundred million yuan in 2007. The national savings dropped from twelve trillion two hundred and twenty-three billion four hundred million yuan to eleven trillion seven hundred and thirty-four billion three hundred million yuan, and the national savings rate decreased from 48.99% to 47.02.Therefore, the current pension insurance system in China has an crowding out effect on national savings, but the crowding-out effect is not great. However, the construction of endowment insurance system has a positive effect on the improvement of resident consumption in China, and China should continue to improve the endowment insurance system.
【作者单位】：北京大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(70803002;负责人:蒋云峗) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(08JC790005;负责人:蒋云峗)
【分类号】：F842.6;F832.22;F224

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