论利率与通货膨胀

发布时间：2018-03-23 05:13

本文选题：利率　切入点：通货膨胀　出处：《中共中央党校》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前权威的经济学教科书中,利率与存款准备金率、公开市场操作一并被作为货币政策的三大工具。同时,控制通货膨胀又是宏观经济政策的主要目标之一。因而长久以来,学术界有一种占主导地位的看法是中央银行可以通过提高“利率”对通货膨胀进行调控。本文研究认为,“利率”并不能作为央行的政策工具,央行也不能通过提高“利率”达到控制通货膨胀的目的。任何学术研究都是在前人研究的基础上起步的,因此为了展开对这个观点的论述,本文首先对有关利率与通胀的决定与形成机制、利率与通胀变动关系的研究文献进行了综述,并对有代表性的理论观点进行了评论。通过这些述评,作者认为费雪的人性不耐决定说与弗里德曼的货币供应量决定说最具说服力。故这两个学说成为了本论文重要的理论基础。在对中外相关文献分析之后,本文对利率的决定原因和形成机制做了深入的研究。作者对人性不耐的经济学涵义进行了进一步的分析,并对个人及社会整体不耐在利率形成中的作用做了描述。本文提出了贷方与借方剩余的概念,指出自然利率最终要使贷方剩余与借方剩余趋于相等。在明确了利率的根本决定因素之后,作者对费雪的收入与资本价值理论进行了补充,将资产提供的用于消费和积累的收入统一起来,总称为“广义收入流”。这样就把个人获得的收入与资产提供的收入统一了起来。随后,作者将人性不耐划分成了“消费不耐”与“投资不耐”,并分析了影响投资不耐的因素。笔者还提出了资产折现值吻合度模型,利用该模型说明了两种不耐对利率的决定作用。这样就增强了人性不耐决定说对现实问题的解释力。关于通货膨胀的成因和形成机制,本文讨论了货币供求与通货膨胀的关系,阐述了货币供应量增长加速后实际货币需求量与货币流通速度变化的机制,以及货币供应量增长率超过生产率增长的情况下一般价格水平的变化过程,从而明确了通货膨胀的成因在于货币的过量供应。作者还对货币政策时滞效应理论进行了扩充。阐明了研究货币政策时滞效应对分析通胀原因的作用,提出了“难免发生顺逆的差额”、“投资收益的不确定”、“现金与其他形式资产转换时的交易成本”、“货物流通中可变的交易成本”和“企业对收入增长原因的判断”等共同造成了货币供应增长加速后货币流通速度下降。同时,本文分析了闲置专门生产品重新投入生产增加可交易产品总量的可能性,从而补充了货币供应增长加速后产量变化的“缓冲机制”。在明确了利率与通胀各自的决定原因和形成机制之后,本文对利率变动与通货膨胀关系做了深入研究。在确定利率与通胀决定原因和形成机制不一致的基础上,推导出由市场调节的实际利率变动与货币供应变动没有必然联系。作者不仅从不耐角度解释了通胀时期实际低利率或负利率的原因,而且从利率变化对资金循环的影响,央行提高利率后商业银行的应对措施,提高利率对基础货币供应的影响,提高利率对货币乘数的影响等四个方面论证了人为提高利率反而不利于控制货币供应。通过对近十六年来利率与货币供应量增长率统计数据的分析,证明了不论是存贷款基准利率还是市场基准利率(以七日拆借利率代替)的变动均不能起到控制货币供应量的作用。这样就证明了利率变动不能起到调控通货膨胀的作用。本文还研究了提高利率影响生产加剧通胀的可能性。作者修正并完善了哈耶克的生产过程理论。在生产过程理论与吻合度模型相结合的基础上,对比分析了在由市场自发调节利率与脱离不耐提高利率两种条件下,生产过程结构变化趋势的差异。通过研究发现,脱离不耐提高利率将使产品总有效供给量相比利率由市场自发调节时降低。并且,在货币供应量持续过快增的条件下,这种负面影响可以被放大从而使通货膨胀更为严重。最后,本文总结了有代表性的国家和地区在治理通胀与利率调整方面的实践经验,并以此印证了前面章节所提出的观点。纵观全文,笔者主要在以下几个方面进行了创新：明确了利率与通胀的决定机制不相同；证明了市场自发调节时实际利率与货币供应没有必然联系；调高利率不能抑制或减少货币供应,得出了调高利率不能抑制通货膨胀的结论；从不耐角度对通胀时期实际低利率或负利率的讨论；对费雪的人性不耐决定说的修正与补充；对弗里德曼货币政策时滞效应理论的补充；对哈耶克生产过程理论的修正与补充；将生产过程理论与吻合度模型相结合讨论人为提高利率对生产的负面影响等。本论文的研究方法主要为：规范与实证分析、个体与总量分析、定性与定量分析、动态与静态分析等。在研究过程中,作者提出了一些概念,希望这些概念在今后能够应用于相关领域的研究中。这些概念包括：借方剩余、贷方剩余、广义收入流、投资不耐、资产折现值吻合度等。
[Abstract]:At present, the authority of the economics textbooks, the interest rate and deposit reserve ratio, open market operations can be used as the three tools of monetary policy. At the same time, the control of inflation is one of the main objectives of macroeconomic policy. So for a long time, the academic circles have a dominant position is the view of the central bank can raise interest rates. "The inflation under control. This paper argues that the" interest rate "and not as the central bank's policy tools, the central bank can not by increasing the" interest rate "achieve the purpose of controlling inflation.
Any academic research is started on the basis of previous studies, in order to start the discussion, this paper first on the interest rate and inflation decision and formation mechanism research literatures the relationship between interest rate and inflation, and the representative theories are reviewed. Through the review of the the author thinks, Fisher's impatient human nature decided that the money supply and the decision of Freedman said the most persuasive. Therefore, these two theories has become an important theoretical basis for this thesis.
After the analysis of related literature, this paper determines the cause and mechanism of the interest rate to do in-depth study. The economics meaning of intolerance of humanity were further analyzed, and the individual and the society as a whole is not high in the interest rate formation effect is described. This paper puts forward the concept of lenders and borrowers remaining finally, pointed out that the natural rate of interest to the lender and borrower surplus surplus tend to be equal.
After defining the fundamental determinants of the interest rate, income and capital value theory of Fisher's were added, will provide the assets for consumption and accumulation of unified income, collectively referred to as the "general income stream". So the personal income obtained with assets to provide income to unity. Then, the author will human nature is divided into "consumer resistance intolerance" and "investment intolerance", and analyzes the influencing factors of investment intolerance. The author also puts forward the liquidity value fit model, the model shows that two is not resistant to a decisive role in the interest rate. So it can enhance the human resistance of said decision the practical problems of the explanatory power.
And the formation mechanism of inflation, this paper discusses the relationship between money supply and inflation, expounds the actual amount of money supply growth accelerated after the currency demand and currency speed change mechanism, and the money supply growth rate than the general price level change process of productivity growth situation, in order to make clear the causes of inflation is that the excess supply of money.
The monetary policy lag effect theory is extended. The delay of the monetary policy effect on the analysis of the reasons of inflation effect, put forward "inevitably occurred along the counter balance", "uncertain" investment income, cash and other forms of asset conversion when the transaction cost, transaction cost variable goods in circulation "and" enterprise income growth judging the cause of "the common cause of the money supply growth accelerated after the monetary velocity decline. At the same time, this paper analyzes the special products idle back into production can increase the possibility of the total trading products, to supplement money supply growth accelerated after the change of output" buffer ".
After making the decision because of interest rates and inflation and their formation mechanism, this paper makes a thorough study on the relationship between interest rates and inflation. In determining interest rates and inflation determine the cause and foundation of mechanism is not consistent, adjusted by the market actual interest rate and money supply changes are not necessarily linked. The author not only never derived resistance explanations for the actual inflation low or negative interest rates, and interest rate changes on the impact of capital circulation, measures the central bank to raise interest rates of commercial banks, improve the impact of interest rates on the basis of the money supply, improve the four aspects of interest rate impact on monetary multiplier that artificially raise interest rates but not conducive to the control of money supply. Through the analysis of the interest rate and money supply growth rate of statistical data in recent sixteen years, whether it is proved that the benchmark deposit and lending rates are still The change of market benchmark interest rate (instead of seven day lending rate) does not play a role in controlling the money supply. This proves that interest rate change can not play a role in regulating inflation.
This paper also studies the effects of inflation and higher interest rates of production possibilities. The authors revise and improve the production process of Hayek's theory. Based on the production process theory and fit model combined, compared and analyzed in the regulated by the market interest rate and not from Naiti interest rates under the two conditions, differences in structure evolution of production trends the study found that out of intolerance to raise interest rates will make the total effective supply of products decreased compared to the amount of the interest rate regulated by the market. And the continued rapid increase in the money supply, the negative effect can be amplified so that inflation is more serious.
Finally, this paper summarizes the practical experience of some typical countries and regions in controlling inflation and interest rate adjustment, and confirms the views put forward in the preceding chapters.
Throughout the paper, the main innovations are as follows: a clear decision mechanism of the interest rate and inflation is not the same; that the spontaneous adjustment of the market real interest rates and money supply are not necessarily linked; higher interest rates can inhibit or reduce the money supply, the higher interest rates to curb inflation cannot be concluded; never discuss resistance angle the actual inflation low or negative interest rates; the Fisher humanity intolerance amendments decided; supplement to the time lag effect of monetary policy on the theory of Freedman; revised and added Hayek production process theory; production process theory and fit model combining discuss the negative influence of human to raise interest rates on production etc..
The major research methods of this dissertation: normative and empirical analysis, analysis of individual and total, qualitative and quantitative analysis, static and dynamic analysis. In the research process, the author puts forward some concepts, hoping these concepts can be applied to future research in related fields. These concepts include: the borrower surplus, surplus credits the general flow of income, investment, intolerance, asset discounted value fit.

【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F822.5

【引证文献】