中国货币政策的福利损失及中介目标的选择——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析

发布时间：2018-03-24 21:32

本文选题：货币政策　切入点：福利损失　出处：《财经研究》2010年02期

【摘要】：文章运用新凯恩斯框架下的DSGE模型对中国货币政策的福利损失进行分析,研究表明:(1)名义利率对通货膨胀的反应越是敏感,则福利损失越小,因此,货币当局应该充分利用利率政策稳定价格水平;(2)名义利率对产出的反应越是敏感,则福利损失越大,因此,货币当局不宜运用利率政策影响经济增长速度;(3)利率平滑对福利的影响不大,货币当局的利率政策应该直接针对通货膨胀,而不应该追求利率本身的稳定;(4)在一定条件下,不同的利率政策规则造成的福利损失差别不大,货币当局可以从便利的角度出发,根据上期的通货膨胀率和产出水平来设定当期的名义利率;(5)与利率变动相比,货币供应量的变动造成福利损失更大,因此,货币政策的中介目标应该逐步由货币供应量转向利率。
[Abstract]:This paper uses the DSGE model under the new Keynesian framework to analyze the welfare loss of China's monetary policy. The study shows that the more sensitive the nominal interest rate to inflation, the smaller the welfare loss. Monetary authorities should make full use of interest rate policies to stabilize price levels.) the more sensitive nominal interest rates are to output, the greater the loss of welfare. Monetary authorities should not use interest rate policy to influence economic growth. (the interest rate smoothing has little effect on welfare. The monetary authority's interest rate policy should be directed at inflation, rather than pursuing the stability of the interest rate itself.) under certain conditions, There is little difference in welfare losses caused by different interest rate policy rules. Monetary authorities can, from a convenient point of view, set the current nominal interest rate for the current period according to the inflation rate and the output level of the previous period. The change of money supply causes greater welfare losses, so the intermediate target of monetary policy should be gradually shifted from money supply to interest rate.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：上海财经大学“211”第三期建设项目资助
【分类号】：F224;F822.0

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