热钱流动的效应及其监管研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 04:18

本文选题：热钱流动　切入点：人民币升值预期　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国经济发展势头强劲，人民币升值预期增加，大量的热钱被其吸引，通过各种渠道进入我国进行套利，严重影响了我国的经济增长。自从2007年美国次贷危机爆发之后，美国为了应对危机对国内经济的影响，先后几次实行了量化宽松政策，加大了货币的供给，这又使得国际上热钱数量大大增加，而次贷危机后，以我国为代表的新兴市场国家经济复苏迅速，市场前景一片大好，这些热钱大量涌入以我国为代表的新兴市场国家，这其中又以流入我国的为最。 2009年底，迪拜主权债务危机爆发，这使得之前存在于中东地区的热钱大量外逃，转而进入新兴市场国家，由于我国经济发展迅速，这些热钱被大量吸引进入我国。随着欧洲主权债务危机的持续恶化，国际金融市场大幅动荡，到2011年下半年，我国人民币汇率变化趋势和预期也开始分化，自9月底开始，人民币汇率结束了持续两年多的单边升值预期，在海外无本金交割远期外汇市场上，人民币汇率首次出现了贬值的预期，出于避险动机，我国海外人民币遭到抛售，，市场流动性压力大增，我国的外汇占款也出现了连续3个月的负增长，这些迹象都表明热钱在逃离我国，我国热钱流动的波动性增加。本文就是在这种背景下研究进入我国变化莫测的热钱所造成的影响。热钱大量充斥在我国的房地产，股票市场上，造成了经济的不稳定，严重影响着我国经济的发展，而热钱流动方向的逆转更是引发金融危机的导火线，对热钱进行有效监管是我国现阶段必须面对和解决的难题。因此，本文通过对热钱流动的来源、渠道、规模和流入我国原因进行的分析，掌握了热钱进出我国的基本情况；然后对热钱如何影响我国经济金融体系进行了详细研究；最后通过对热钱流动利益相关三方的利益博弈分析，得出了我国应对热钱流动的思路，就我国应如何监管热钱提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economic development momentum is strong, RMB appreciation is expected to increase, a large number of hot money is attracted, through various channels to arbitrage into our country, seriously affected the economic growth of our country. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, in order to cope with the impact of the crisis on the domestic economy, the United States has successively implemented quantitative easing policies and increased the supply of money, which has greatly increased the amount of hot money in the international community. After the subprime mortgage crisis, the emerging market countries, represented by our country, are recovering rapidly, and the market prospect is very good. These hot money poured into the emerging market countries represented by our country, among which, the one that flows into our country is the most. At the end of 2009, Dubai's sovereign debt crisis broke out, prompting hot money that had previously existed in the Middle East to flee to emerging markets, which had been lured into the country by the country's rapid economic growth. With the continuous deterioration of the European sovereign debt crisis and the sharp turbulence in the international financial market, by the second half of 2011, the trend and expectations of the RMB exchange rate in China have also begun to diverge, beginning at the end of September. The RMB exchange rate ended the expectation of unilateral appreciation that lasted for more than two years. In the overseas non-deliverable forward foreign exchange market, the RMB exchange rate was expected to depreciate for the first time. Out of risk aversion, China's overseas RMB was sold off. The liquidity pressure in the market has increased greatly, and the foreign exchange in China has increased for three months in a row. These indications indicate that hot money is escaping from China, and the volatility of hot money flows in China is increasing. It is against this background that this paper studies the impact of the unpredictable hot money that has entered our country. Hot money is flooded in the real estate and stock market of our country, causing economic instability and seriously affecting the development of our country's economy. The reversal of hot money flow is the trigger of the financial crisis. The effective supervision of hot money is a difficult problem that our country must face and solve at the present stage. Therefore, through the analysis of the source, channel, scale and reason of hot money flowing into our country, this paper grasps the basic situation of hot money in and out of our country, and then makes a detailed study on how hot money affects our country's economic and financial system. Finally, through the benefit game analysis of the interest related to the hot money flow, the thinking of how to deal with the hot money flow in our country is obtained, and the policy suggestions on how to supervise the hot money in our country are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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