汇率波动对天津市进出口贸易的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 13:18

本文选题：汇率波动　切入点：进出口贸易　出处：《天津财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：汇率通过影响一国的进出口贸易等活动,对一国经济产生多方面影响。我国实行有管理的浮动汇率制度以来,人民币对主要世界货币的汇率都出现了很大的波动,尤其是对美元的长期升值态势引起了人们对于汇率波动对进出口贸易影响问题的极度关注。入世以来,中国已成为了世界上的第一和第二大出口、进口国,引人注目的原材料限制出口案和消费品进口热潮无不隐含着进出口贸易中的结构性问题。区分生产资料和最终消费品角度的汇率波动对进出口贸易影响的路径探索提供给了我们贴近现实热点问题的一种研究思路,对于解开这些隐含着的结构性问题很有帮助,也有助于了解汇率波动在不同贸易形式中起到的作用。实际有效汇率考虑到了国与国之间的贸易往来比重和通货膨胀引起的价格调整。在人民币对美元强势升值和CPI全民关注的背景下考察实际有效汇率变动对于进出口的影响能够更真切地观察到汇率波动对于进出口行业结构的调整情况。天津市拥有北方最大的综合性港口,进出口贸易发达。2011年进出口总额更是突破千亿美元,贸易结构也发生了很大变化。研究实际有效汇率波动对天津进出口贸易的影响具有深刻的现实意义。本文采取定性与定量相结合的方法,先探究了汇率波动影响进出口的途径。之后对汇率波动对天津市进出口贸易的影响进行了总量分析和分不同贸易形式的分类分析。得出的结论是,创新因素可以改变汇率波动对于进出口贸易影响的性质,可看做是汇率传导的调剂阀。实际有效汇率波动对天津市进出口贸易有比较明显的影响。1985年至今,实际有效汇率在各时段对于进出口贸易有不同的影响。总体上,实际有效汇率每变动1%,天津市的进出口总额将会同向变动约0.52%。而汇率波动的幅度增加1%,天津市的进出口总额的波动幅度就会增加约3.12%。另外,汇率波动对于天津市一般贸易形式进出口的影响最大,对来料加工贸易的影响最小。最后,文章还提出了重视研发,增强创新能力；优化贸易结构；发展培植本市进出口企业；开辟国外市场等建议。
[Abstract]:The exchange rate affects a country's economy in many ways by influencing the import and export trade of a country. Since China has implemented a managed floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate of the RMB against the major world currencies has fluctuated greatly. In particular, the trend of long-term appreciation against the US dollar has aroused people's extreme concern about the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on import and export trade. Since China entered the WTO, China has become the world's first and second largest exporter and importer. The structural problems in import and export trade are implied in the conspicuous export restriction cases of raw materials and the import boom of consumer goods. A path to distinguish the impact of Exchange rate fluctuations on Import and Export Trade from the Angle of means of production and final Consumer goods. So it provides us with a kind of research thinking that is close to the hot issues in reality. To help solve these implicit structural problems, It also helps to understand the role of exchange rate fluctuations in different forms of trade. The real effective exchange rate takes into account the proportion of trade between countries and price adjustments caused by inflation. Under the background of CPI, we can observe the effect of the real effective exchange rate change on the import and export more truthfully to the adjustment of the structure of the import and export industry by the exchange rate fluctuation. Tianjin has the largest comprehensive port in the north, with developed import and export trade. In 2011, the total import and export volume exceeded 100 billion US dollars. Great changes have taken place in the structure of trade, and it is of great practical significance to study the effect of the fluctuation of actual effective exchange rate on Tianjin's import and export trade. In this paper, qualitative and quantitative methods are adopted. This paper first explores the ways that exchange rate fluctuation affects import and export. Then, it analyzes the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on Tianjin's import and export trade and classifies it into different trade forms. The conclusion is that the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on Tianjin's import and export trade is as follows:. The innovative factors can change the nature of exchange rate fluctuation on import and export trade, and can be regarded as the adjustment valve of exchange rate conduction. The real effective exchange rate fluctuation has obvious influence on Tianjin import and export trade. From 1985 to present, The real effective exchange rate has different effects on import and export trade in different periods of time. For each change in the real effective exchange rate, the total volume of imports and exports of Tianjin will change in the same direction about 0.52.And the range of exchange rate fluctuations will increase by 1, and the fluctuation of the total volume of imports and exports of Tianjin will increase by about 3.12 percent. In addition, Exchange rate fluctuations have the greatest impact on the import and export of Tianjin's general form of trade, and the least on the processing trade of raw materials. Finally, the article also puts forward to pay attention to R & D, enhance the ability of innovation, optimize the trade structure, develop and cultivate the import and export enterprises in this city. Suggestions for opening up foreign markets.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6;F224

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