我国货币政策对湖南省房地产价格的传导影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 03:22

本文选题：货币政策的传导　切入点：房地产价格　出处：《中南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：二十一世纪以来,随着我国经济的发展,我国的房地产业也迅速发展起来。房地产业的发展在一定程度上带动了我国经济的发展,但是房价过快增长也带来了一系列负面影响。国家多次采取宏观调控措施对房地产价格进行调控,但效果不佳。因此,基于这样的背景,研究了货币政策对湖南省房地产价格的传导影响。以期通过研究,了解货币政策对湖南省房地产价格传导的通畅性,为改进房地产市场货币政策传导提出合理、有效的建议。本论文主要研究货币政策对湖南省房地产价格的传导影响。通过定性分析与定量分析相结合,研究了货币政策对湖南省房地产市场传导的通畅性。在定性分析上,首先,通过对相关文献的研究,对货币政策如何向房地产价格传导进行了理论分析。通过研究总结发现,货币政策对房地产价格的传导可以分为两个环节：一是货币政策对房地产价格的传导,二是房地产价格对实体经济的传导。在第一个环节中,货币政策主要通过利率、信贷以及资产组合三个渠道影响房地产价格；在第二个环节中,房地产价格通过影响投资和消费来影响实体经济的发展。房地产价格通过财富效应、家庭负债表效应、挤占效应影响消费；通过直接投资效应、托宾Q效应、资产负债表效应影响投资。货币政策通过这两个环节的传导,来实现其政策目标。在定量分析上,主要采用了货币政策的季度数据和湖南省的季度数据进行分析,分析主要包括两部分：一是货币政策对湖南省房地产价格传导的实证分析。通过构建向量自回归模型分析了利率、金融机构贷款余额对湖南省房地产价格的影响。通过对模型进行Johansen协整检验、平稳性检验、Granger因果关系检验,利用脉冲响应函数以及方差分解进行进一步分析,研究了货币政策与湖南省房地产价格之间的长期关系以及前者短期波动对后者的影响。二是湖南省房地产价格对湖南省实体经济的实证分析。通过定量分析,得出了以下结论： (1)从长期来看,湖南省房地产价格跟利率、金融机构贷款余额以呈同方向变动,金融机构贷款余额对湖南房房地产价格的影响显著,而利率对湖南省房地产价格的影响不显著。 (2)在短期内,湖南省房地产价格跟利率呈同方向变动,跟金融机构贷款余额呈反方向变动。但两者对湖南省价格的影响都不显著。 (3)在长期内,湖南省房地产价格对与湖南省GDP、消费以及投资均呈正相关关系,其中湖南省房地产价格对湖南省GDP和投资影响显著,而对消费影响不显著。 (4)在短期内,湖南房价跟湖南省GDP、投资呈同方向变动,与消费呈反方向变动。湖南省房地产价格对湖南GDP、消费和投资的影响都不显著。通过定量分析发现,房地产价格对宏观经济具有较明显的影响,而货币政策对湖南省房地产价格的传导还不够通畅。就其原因,主要有两个方面：一是货币政策的本身还不够完善,二是货币政策的传导存在一定的区域差异性。由此,本文从推进市场化利率,运用多重调控工具,下放部分调控权,关注房地产价格四个方面出发,提出改进房地产市场货币政策传导的建议。
[Abstract]:Since the twenty - first century , with the development of our country ' s economy , the real estate industry of our country has developed rapidly . The development of real estate industry has brought about a series of negative impacts on the real estate price .

This paper mainly studies the influence of monetary policy on real estate price in Hunan Province . Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis , this paper studies the smoothness of monetary policy on real estate market in Hunan Province .

On the qualitative analysis , firstly , through the research of the relevant literatures , the paper analyzes how the monetary policy transmits to the real estate price . Through the research , it is found that the transmission of the monetary policy on the real estate price can be divided into two parts : one is the conduction of the monetary policy on the real estate price , the second is the conduction of the real estate price to the real economy . In the first link , the monetary policy mainly affects the real estate price through three channels of interest rate , credit and asset combination ;
In the second part , real estate prices influence the development of real economy by influencing investment and consumption . The real estate prices influence consumption through wealth effect , balance sheet effect and crowding effect ;
Through the direct investment effect , the Tobin Q effect , the balance sheet effect affects investment . The monetary policy is conducted through the two links to achieve its policy objectives .

In the quantitative analysis , the quarterly data of monetary policy and quarterly data of Hunan Province are mainly used to analyze and analyze the impact of monetary policy on the real estate price in Hunan Province . By using the model , we analyze the effect of interest rate and financial institution loan balance on real estate price in Hunan Province . By analyzing the model , we study the long - term relationship between the monetary policy and real estate price in Hunan Province and the influence of the former short - term fluctuation on the latter .

( 1 ) In the long run , the real estate price and interest rate of Hunan Province , the loan balance of financial institution are changed in the same direction , and the loan balance of financial institution is significant to the real estate price of Hunan . However , the interest rate is not significant to the real estate price of Hunan Province .

( 2 ) In the short term , the real estate price of Hunan Province changed in the same direction with the interest rate , and the loan balance of the financial institution changed in the opposite direction , but both had no significant effect on the price of Hunan Province .

( 3 ) In the long run , the real estate price of Hunan is positively correlated with the GDP , consumption and investment in Hunan Province .

( 4 ) In the short term , Hunan ' s housing price changes in the same direction with GDP and investment in Hunan Province . The real estate prices in Hunan are not significant to the GDP , consumption and investment of Hunan Province .

The quantitative analysis finds that the real estate price has more obvious influence on the macro economy , and the monetary policy is not good enough for the real estate price of Hunan Province . For its reasons , there are two main aspects : firstly , the monetary policy is not perfect itself , the second is the regional difference of the conduction of monetary policy .

【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23

【参考文献】