人民币升值对我国贸易条件影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 16:47

本文选题：人民币名义汇率　切入点：价格贸易条件　出处：《湖南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：在国际贸易中，贸易条件和汇率是两个很重要的经济指标。价格贸易条件是用本币或外币衡量的进出口商品的比价，可以衡量一国出口商品的国际竞争力，也可以反映一国在参与国际贸易中实际资源的流入或流出及国民福利的变化，其优劣直接涉及各国切身的贸易利益。汇率是一国货币同外国货币交换的比价，汇率的改变会导致贸易商品价格的改变。所以研究人民币汇率波动对我们分类贸易条件的作用，有利于我国出口企业在人民币升值的大背景下，积极采取应对措施，提高我国出口商品的国际竞争力，同时为我国实施正确的贸易政策和推进人民币汇率体制改革创造条件。本文首先总结了国际经济学中的汇率和贸易条件的基础理论，分析了经典的马歇尔勒纳条件和名义汇率对贸易条件影响的传导机制。然后结合收集的数据统计分析了我国汇率制度的变迁、人民币兑美元名义汇率的波动和我国各类贸易条件的变动状况，论述了人民币汇率变化对我国各类贸易条件的影响路径和影响结果。接着选取分析变量，建立实证分析模型分析人民币汇率水平的变化对我国各类贸易条件的影响，经过检验后，采用脉冲响应函数和方差分解来度量汇率和各类贸易条件传递效应大小，比较变量间影响效应的差异。根据结果发现，在不同的人民币升值区间，各个变量对贸易条件的影响方向会发生变化，，它们对贸易条件的影响大小排序也会变化。具体来说，人民币升值在时间上与我国各类贸易条件的变化存在格兰杰因果关系，人民币升值会造成我国价格贸易条件与收入贸易条件波动，但是长期而言将会趋于均衡，同时人民币升值对我国早期（1994-2005年）工业制成品单要素贸易条件产生负影响，而对后期（2005-2012年）的工业制成品产生正影响。从时间维度而言，汇率是我国1997-2005年间工业制成品单要素贸易条件改善的主要因素。
[Abstract]:In international trade, terms of trade and exchange rates are two very important economic indicators.Price terms of trade are the prices of imports and exports measured in local currency or foreign currency. They can measure the international competitiveness of a country's export commodities, and can also reflect the inflow or outflow of real resources and changes in the welfare of the people in a country's participation in international trade.Its advantages and disadvantages are directly related to the immediate trade interests of all countries.Exchange rate is the exchange rate between a country's currency and foreign currency. The change of exchange rate will lead to the change of commodity price.Therefore, to study the effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on our classified terms of trade is beneficial for our export enterprises to take active measures to improve the international competitiveness of our export commodities under the background of RMB appreciation.At the same time, it creates conditions for China to carry out correct trade policy and promote the reform of RMB exchange rate system.This paper first summarizes the basic theories of exchange rate and terms of trade in international economics, and analyzes the transmission mechanism of the classical Marshall Lerner condition and nominal exchange rate on the terms of trade.Then it analyzes the changes of exchange rate system, the fluctuation of RMB / US dollar nominal exchange rate and the changes of various terms of trade in China, based on the collected data.This paper discusses the influence path and result of RMB exchange rate change on China's various terms of trade.Then select the analysis variables, establish an empirical analysis model to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's various terms of trade, after testing,Pulse response function and variance decomposition are used to measure the transfer effect between exchange rate and various trade conditions, and to compare the differences between variables.According to the results, the influence direction of each variable on the terms of trade will change, and the order of their influence on the terms of trade will also change in the different range of RMB appreciation.Specifically, there is a Granger causality between RMB appreciation and the changes in China's various terms of trade over time. RMB appreciation will cause fluctuations in China's price terms of trade and income terms of trade, but in the long run it will tend to be balanced.At the same time, the appreciation of RMB has a negative effect on the terms of trade of single elements of manufactured goods in China from 1994 to 2005, and a positive impact on manufactured goods in the later period from 2005 to 2012.From the time dimension, the exchange rate is the main factor to improve the terms of trade of China's manufactured goods from 1997 to 2005.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752

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