基于神经网络的上市公司财务危机综合预警模型研究
发布时间:2018-04-03 17:43
本文选题:财务危机 切入点:神经网络 出处:《河北大学》2012年硕士论文
【摘要】:当代社会和市场是瞬息万变的。企业、投资人所面对的风险也是前所未有的,特别是信息化技术的推广,更使得我们有些措手不及。标准普尔公司(StandardPoor's)于2011年08月06日突然宣布将美国的主权信用评级从“AAA”级下调至“AA+”级,这一消息在全球范围内引起了恐慌,各国股市都较大幅度的下挫,投资者纷纷逃离股市,全球经济增速放慢。我们可以看到对一个国家的财务情况预测会对世界经济造成多大的影响,那么从企业出发,我们也需要建立这样一个预测体系,不光为企业管理者提供了管理企业的信息和对企业评价标准,也为健全投资市场,保障投资者利益起到了重要的作用。从我国情况来看,随着市场经济体系的建立和我国股市的发展,企业财务危机问题也日益突出,上市公司因为财务问题而出现ST或退市的例子屡见不鲜,,这里面的原因是多样的,但不可否认的一点是财务危机是其最终的体现,也是其极力想避免的现象。根据哲学上质变和量变的规律,财务危机也是由浅入深的,这是一个发展的过程,如果我们尽早的预测到财务危机会出现,并采取一系列的措施加以控制,那么我们就会最大限度的避免财务危机的出现。 正是基于这种情况,本文以国内外研究为基础,从我国企业的实际情况出发,结合最新的神经网络技术来对财务危机进行预测,并多方面考虑,建立起一套以数据定量分析为基础;以神经网络为途径;以企业战略、公司治理、内部控制为目标的综合预警及分析体系,进而对企业财务危机加以更好的预测、分析及控制,最终有助于企业稳定的发展和企业目标的实现,也为社会创造出了更大的效益。
[Abstract]:Contemporary society and market are changing rapidly.Enterprises, investors are also facing unprecedented risks, especially the promotion of information technology, but also make us some unprepared.Standard Poors & Poor's suddenly announced on Aug. 06, 2011, that it would downgrade the US sovereign credit rating from "AAA" to "AA", a news that caused panic around the world, with stock markets across the world falling sharply.Investors fled stocks and the global economy slowed down.We can see how much impact a country's financial forecast will have on the world economy. From the perspective of enterprises, we also need to establish such a forecasting system.It not only provides management information and evaluation criteria for enterprise managers, but also plays an important role in improving the investment market and protecting the interests of investors.From the point of view of our country, with the establishment of market economy system and the development of stock market in our country, the financial crisis of enterprises is becoming more and more prominent. There are common examples of St or delisting of listed companies because of financial problems.The reasons for this are diverse, but it is undeniable that the financial crisis is its ultimate manifestation and a phenomenon it tries to avoid.According to the law of philosophical qualitative change and quantitative change, financial crisis is also from a shallow to deep, this is a development process, if we predict the financial crisis as soon as possible, and take a series of measures to control it.Then we will avoid financial crisis to the maximum extent possible.Based on this situation, this paper based on the domestic and foreign research, from the actual situation of enterprises in China, combined with the latest neural network technology to predict the financial crisis, and consider many aspects.Set up a set of comprehensive early warning and analysis system based on quantitative analysis of data, neural network, enterprise strategy, corporate governance and internal control, and then make better prediction, analysis and control of enterprise financial crisis.Finally, it helps the steady development of the enterprise and the realization of the enterprise goal, and also creates more benefits for the society.
【学位授予单位】:河北大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2012
【分类号】:F275;F832.51;F224
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