进一步推进人民币自由兑换的研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 15:12

本文选题：经常项目　切入点：资本项目　出处：《华东师范大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球经济、金融一体化进程的加快,中国对外开放程度越来越高,实现人民币完全自由兑换,即资本项目下的自由兑换己成为中国市场经济发展的必然趋势。自人民币经常项目开放以来,并没有对我国经济的稳定增长造成不利影响,近年来我国的国际贸易量逐年增加,贸易结构不断改善,经济增长强劲。随后我国实施了QFII制度,加入世界贸易组织以及人民币汇率改革,我们不难发现人民币资本项目开放的脚步明显加快,实现人民币资本项目下的可自由兑换的呼声己越来越高,同时客观条件上也日趋成熟。本文总共分为六章。第一章导论部分,介绍了论文的写作背景、目的、意义。第二章概述货币自由兑换理论,并通过对发达国家和发展中国家货币自由兑换的国际实践的分析,总结了不同类型国家的开放经验。第三章介绍了我国自汇改以来人民币自由兑换进程的政策推进,分析人民币自由兑换政策的有效性,论述了我国经常项目和资本项目政策推进的成就和不足。第四章分析人民币自由兑换的国内风险和外部隐患,并参照KLR模型,建立人民币自由兑换过程中的货币危机预警体系。第五章介绍人民币自由兑换必要性和条件分析,并提出了加强人民币自由兑换政策推进的建议。取消目前尚存在的资本自由流动的限制,实现人民币在资本项目下的自由兑换,对我国经济发展和外汇体制改革具有重要的意义。但是资本开放是一把“双刃剑”,在带来收益的同时,同时面临的风险也将会增大,严重的还可能在整个金融体系引发巨大动荡。面对这把“双刃剑”,只有制定更为稳妥的政策,积极创造实现资本项目的前提条件和确立合理开放步骤,才能规避改革进程中出现的风险。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the process of global economy and financial integration, the degree of China's opening to the outside world is becoming higher and higher. The realization of full convertibility of RMB, that is, free convertibility under the capital account, has become an inevitable trend in the development of China's market economy.Since the opening of the RMB current account, there has been no adverse impact on the steady growth of China's economy. In recent years, the volume of international trade in China has increased year by year, the trade structure has been continuously improved, and the economic growth has been strong.Subsequently, China implemented the QFII system, joined the World Trade Organization and the RMB exchange rate reform. It is not difficult to find that the pace of opening up the RMB capital account has been obviously accelerated, and the voice of realizing free convertibility under the RMB capital account has become increasingly high.At the same time, the objective conditions are also maturing day by day.This paper is divided into six chapters.The first chapter introduces the background, purpose and significance of the thesis.The second chapter summarizes the theory of currency convertibility and summarizes the open experience of different types of countries through the analysis of the international practice of currency convertibility in developed and developing countries.The third chapter introduces the policy advancement of RMB convertibility process since China's exchange rate reform, analyzes the effectiveness of RMB convertibility policy, and discusses the achievements and shortcomings of China's current account and capital account policies.Chapter four analyzes the domestic risk and external hidden danger of RMB convertibility, and establishes the currency crisis warning system in the process of RMB free convertibility by referring to KLR model.Chapter five introduces the necessity and condition of RMB convertibility, and puts forward some suggestions on how to promote the policy of RMB convertibility.It is of great significance for China's economic development and the reform of foreign exchange system to remove the existing restrictions on the free flow of capital and to realize the free convertibility of RMB under capital account.But capital opening is a "double-edged sword", which brings benefits and risks, which could lead to great turbulence in the whole financial system.In the face of this "double-edged sword", only by formulating more stable policies, actively creating the preconditions for the realization of capital accounts and establishing reasonable steps of opening up can the risks in the reform process be avoided.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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