基于修正的Agarwal模型对我国外汇储备适度规模研究

发布时间：2018-04-10 00:01

本文选题：外汇储备　切入点：Agarwal模型　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为一国国际经济体系的重要部分，外汇储备也是一国国际货币体系的核心部分，是一国经济实力的重要标志之一，衡量一国综合实力的重要指标之一。外汇储备一直是各国政府工作中的重点，也是政府部门和学术界重点研究对象。因为外汇储备是否充足直接影响我国的国际信誉及金融安全。但是，我国外汇储备规模自外汇体制改革后一直保持高增长的态势，到2011年底达到31811.48亿美元。外汇储备是把双刃剑，规模过小无法保证经济安全，规模过大会阻碍经济发展，抑制经济增长。所以，保持外汇储备适度规模关系一个国家的经济安全。文章对成本收益法原始的Agarwal模型进行修正，利用修正的Agarwal模型对我国2000-2011年间的外汇储备进行实证分析，计算出我国近十二年的外汇储备适度规模，结合实际比较分析后得出结论：我国外汇储备在2003年前处于不足状态，但是逐渐在缩小与适度规模之间的差值，向适度规模靠近；从2004年开始处于严重过剩状态，且这种过剩程度不断在攀升，从2007年开始过剩程度已经远远超过了100%，并且预计这种严重过剩状态会持续下去。文章从政府和民间角度对我国外汇储备规模管理进行了分析，提出了几点建议：1、要加强监控资本的流入尤其是短期资本，，增加欧元和日元等资产在外汇储备中的比重，完善我国外汇储备的币种结构，确保多元化；2、完善人民币汇率形成机制改革和优化外汇管理机制，完善统计系统，防止“热钱”流入；3、积极拓宽外汇储备的投资渠道，减少外汇储备存储的机会成本；4、完善我国金融法律体系，优化对外直接投资，尽快制定专门的《外汇储备管理法》，建立更加有效的安全预警机制；5、适度放松资本管制，平衡外汇流入，实现藏汇于民。随着经济发展，民间用汇需求增加。国家应制定相关法律政策，适当放宽持有与使用外汇的政策限制，鼓励民间持有外汇，逐步满足民间用汇需求，也能减轻外汇储备超长增长的负担。
[Abstract]:As an important part of a country's international economic system, foreign exchange reserves are also the core part of an international monetary system, one of the important symbols of a country's economic strength and one of the important indicators to measure a country's comprehensive strength.Foreign exchange reserve has been the focus of government work, and also the key research object of government and academia.Because whether the foreign exchange reserve is sufficient or not directly affects our country's international prestige and the financial security.However, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves has maintained a high growth trend since the reform of the foreign exchange system, reaching $3.181148 trillion by the end of 2011.Foreign exchange reserve is a double-edged sword, too small to ensure economic security, too large to hinder economic development, inhibit economic growth.Therefore, maintaining the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves is related to the economic security of a country.In this paper, the original Agarwal model of cost-income approach is revised, and the empirical analysis of China's foreign exchange reserves from 2000 to 2011 is carried out by using the modified Agarwal model, and the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves in recent 12 years is calculated.The conclusion is that China's foreign exchange reserves were in a state of insufficiency before 2003, but the difference between reducing and moderate scale gradually approached to a moderate scale, and since 2004, China's foreign exchange reserves have been in a serious surplus state.And the glut is rising, well over 100 since 2007, and is expected to continue.This paper analyzes the scale management of China's foreign exchange reserves from the angle of government and private sector, and puts forward several suggestions: to strengthen the monitoring of capital inflows, especially short-term capital, and to increase the proportion of assets such as euro and yen in foreign exchange reserves.To improve the currency structure of China's foreign exchange reserves, to ensure diversification, to perfect the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, to reform and optimize the foreign exchange management mechanism, to perfect the statistical system, to prevent "hot money" from flowing into China, and to actively broaden the investment channels for foreign exchange reserves.To reduce the opportunity cost of storing foreign exchange reserves; to improve our financial legal system; to optimize foreign direct investment; to formulate a special Foreign Exchange Reserve Management Law as soon as possible; to establish a more effective security early warning mechanism; and to relax capital controls moderately.Balance the inflow of foreign exchange and realize the transfer of foreign exchange to the people.With economic development, private exchange demand increased.The state should formulate relevant legal policies, appropriately relax the policy restrictions on the holding and use of foreign exchange, encourage the private sector to hold foreign exchange, gradually meet the demand for private exchange exchange, and reduce the burden of excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

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