分省投资与信贷关系中的“门槛效应”:审视投资增长的新视角

发布时间：2018-04-13 17:40

本文选题：信贷配置 + 投资　；参考：《金融研究》2010年05期

【摘要】：中国经济增长模式的高投资特征与高储蓄、高密度的信贷支持密切相关,对分省信贷资源分布及其动态配置状态如何影响各省投资的内在机理进行研究十分必要。本文从理论层面揭示了信贷和投资存在均衡形式转换的特征事实,然后通过应用分省数据的面板门槛计量模型发现,中国分省的信贷和投资变量之间存在所谓的"门槛效应",即门槛值将信贷变量分成不同的区制,在不同的区制内投资和信贷的关系呈现出不同的模式;信贷与投资的关联机制受政府对信贷资源配置状态的干预影响显著;在地方政府用来支持经济发展的手段中,财政投入和信贷干预性的配置呈现出相互替代的特征。这间接说明当前信贷资源配置的失衡问题,应当加快信贷配置和投资领域市场化改革。
[Abstract]:The characteristics of high investment in China's economic growth model are closely related to high savings and high density credit support. It is necessary to study how the distribution of credit resources and the dynamic allocation of credit resources by province affect the internal mechanism of provincial investment.This paper reveals the characteristic facts of equilibrium transformation between credit and investment theoretically, and then finds out by using the panel threshold econometric model of provincial data.There is a so-called "threshold effect" between the credit and investment variables in different provinces in China, that is, the threshold value divides the credit variables into different regional systems, and the relationship between investment and credit in different regional systems presents different patterns.The related mechanism of credit and investment is significantly affected by the government intervention in the allocation of credit resources, and in the means used by local governments to support economic development, the allocation of financial input and credit interventionism shows the characteristics of mutual substitution.This indirectly shows that the current imbalance of credit resources allocation should speed up the marketization reform in the field of credit allocation and investment.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院;中国银监会政策法规部;天津财经大学金融系;
【分类号】：F832.48

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