关于中国适度外汇储备规模的研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 22:37

本文选题：外汇储备 + 适度规模　；参考：《华南理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：外汇储备对于一个国家来说意义重大，，它作为对外贸易的主要支付手段、偿还外债的主要偿债手段、稳定外汇市场的主要工具以及对外投资的主要支付手段在一国的对外关系中起着至关重要的作用。因此，一个国家需要持有足够的外汇储备来满足上述要求，但是，如果外汇储备过多，则会形成外汇储备资源的浪费，会对国内的货币供应造成影响进而加重国内的通货膨胀水平，因此，确定一个适度的外汇储备水平至关重要。自1997年亚洲金融危机后，我国外汇储备总量开始增加，从1997年的139.89亿美元增长到2012年3月的33049.71亿美元，外汇储备总量位居世界第一。除此之外，外汇储备持有量增速在不断加快，从2001年起更是有加速趋势，年均增长率达到37%。我国外汇储备规模的迅速扩张己经使得我国外汇储备规模大大超过了适度外汇储备规模。针对这个问题，本文分别利用比例法、回归分析法、成本收益法对我国适度外汇储备规模进行了实证分析，并在充分的借鉴了国内外关于适度外汇储备规模理论的基础之上，结合中国近年来对外贸易、对外偿债、对外投资以及现行汇率政策的最新国情，对相关模型的参数、结构进行了相关的修改，以确定中国适度外汇储备规模，进而通过对比我国实际外汇储备规模水平，以确定我国外汇储备规模现状，最后在结合我国外汇储备规模的影响因素的基础之上，给出了外汇储备规模管理的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Foreign exchange reserves are of great significance to a country. As the main means of payment for foreign trade, foreign exchange reserves are the main means of paying off foreign debts.The main instruments of stabilizing the foreign exchange market and the main means of payment of foreign investment play a vital role in a country's foreign relations.Therefore, a country needs to hold sufficient foreign exchange reserves to meet the above requirements. However, if the foreign exchange reserves are excessive, it will result in a waste of foreign exchange reserves.It will have an impact on the domestic money supply and thus increase the level of domestic inflation, so it is essential to determine a moderate level of foreign exchange reserves.Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the total foreign exchange reserves of China began to increase, from 13.989 billion dollars in 1997 to 3.304971 trillion dollars in March 2012. The total amount of foreign exchange reserves ranks first in the world.In addition, the growth rate of foreign exchange reserve holdings has been accelerating since 2001, with an average annual growth rate of 37%.The rapid expansion of China's foreign exchange reserves has made the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves greatly exceed the moderate scale of foreign exchange reserves.In order to solve this problem, this paper uses proportional method, regression analysis method and cost-income method to analyze the scale of appropriate foreign exchange reserve in China, and based on the theory of appropriate foreign exchange reserve at home and abroad.According to the latest situation of China's foreign trade, foreign debt service, foreign investment and current exchange rate policy in recent years, the parameters and structure of the relevant models have been modified to determine the scale of China's moderate foreign exchange reserves.Then, by comparing the actual level of foreign exchange reserve in China, this paper determines the present situation of foreign exchange reserve scale of our country. Finally, on the basis of combining the influencing factors of foreign exchange reserve scale of our country, the paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on the scale management of foreign exchange reserve.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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