非传统货币政策对宏观经济影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 14:09

本文选题：非传统货币政策 + 中央银行　；参考：《上海理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年9月雷曼兄弟倒闭，发端于美国的金融危机迅速席卷全球，世界经济至今还没有彻底走出危机的阴霾，政府宏观经济调节工具之一——货币政策，其有效性再次受到质疑。各国中央银行纷纷采取行动应对危机，随着金融危机影响加深，世界各主要中央银行除了采取以降低短期利率为主的传统货币政策外，还积极采取以扩张中央银行资产负债表为代表的非传统货币政策。本文主要从非传统货币政策的理论框架、政策实践、政策效果及影响的实证检验等方面进行系统分析。第一章绪论介绍论文的选题依据和研究目的、国内外文献综述及相关概念界定、现有研究中存在的问题、研究内容与方法及研究框架。第二章对非传统货币政策进行了理论分析，首先介绍了货币政策的相关理论，然后从非传统货币政策传导机制及特征等方面进行分析，依次从中央银行资产负债表角度、中央银行交易对象角度、非传统货币政策行为角度分析非传统货币政策对宏观经济的影响。第三章选取美联储、欧洲央行及中国人民银行为对象，进行非传统货币政策对宏观经济影响的对比分析。第四章是非传统货币政策对宏观经济影响的实证分析，首先介绍研究样本和数据来源，其次引入非传统货币政策对宏观经济影响的模型，最后以美国及中国相关宏观经济数据为基础进行实证分析。第五章是非传统货币政策对宏观经济影响的对策与建议。本文对非传统货币政策进行分析，并且利用美国的宏观经济数据实证检验了美联储的非传统货币政策效果及其对中国的影响，分析表明：一方面，美联储的非传统货币政策，主要是通过基础货币的增加而增加了货币供给量，政策刺激信贷扩张的效果比较微弱。货币供给量大量增加导致美元贬值、国际大宗商品价格大幅上涨。另一方面，美联储的非传统货币政策导致国际大宗商品价格大幅上涨，使中国面临着较大的输入型通胀压力。由于美国货币供给增加，，美元贬值，加剧了人民币过快升值的压力。
[Abstract]:The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the financial crisis that originated in the United States quickly swept the world, the world economy has not yet completely out of the haze of the crisis. The effectiveness of monetary policy, one of the macroeconomic adjustment tools of the government, has been questioned once again.Central banks around the world have taken action to deal with the crisis. With the deepening of the financial crisis, the world's major central banks, in addition to adopting traditional monetary policies focusing on lowering short-term interest rates,It also actively adopts the non-traditional monetary policy represented by the expansion of the balance sheet of the central bank.This paper makes a systematic analysis of the theoretical framework, the policy practice, the effect of the policy and the empirical test of the influence of the non-traditional monetary policy.The first chapter introduces the basis and purpose of the thesis, literature review and definition of relevant concepts, existing problems, research content and methods and research framework.The second chapter makes a theoretical analysis of the non-traditional monetary policy, first introduces the relevant theories of monetary policy, then analyzes the transmission mechanism and characteristics of the non-traditional monetary policy, and then analyzes the balance sheet of the central bank.The influence of unconventional monetary policy on macro-economy is analyzed from the point of view of the transaction object of central bank and the behavior of non-traditional monetary policy.The third chapter selects the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the people's Bank of China as the object, carries on the non-traditional monetary policy to the macroeconomic influence comparative analysis.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of the impact of unconventional monetary policy on macroeconomic. Firstly, it introduces the research samples and data sources, and then introduces the model of the impact of non-traditional monetary policy on macroeconomic.Finally, based on the relevant macroeconomic data of the United States and China, empirical analysis is carried out.The fifth chapter is the countermeasures and suggestions on the macro-economic impact of non-traditional monetary policy.This paper analyzes the unconventional monetary policy, and empirically tests the effect of the Federal Reserve's non-traditional monetary policy and its impact on China by using the macroeconomic data of the United States. The analysis shows that, on the one hand, the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy,The monetary supply is increased mainly through the increase of the base currency, and the effect of the policy to stimulate the credit expansion is weak.A large increase in currency supply led to a depreciation of the dollar and a sharp rise in international commodity prices.On the other hand, the Fed's unconventional monetary policy has led to a sharp rise in international commodity prices, putting China under greater imported inflationary pressure.As the US money supply increases, the dollar depreciates, exacerbating the pressure on the yuan to appreciate too quickly.
【学位授予单位】：上海理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F821.0;F113

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