金融稳定视角下中东欧转轨国家资本账户自由化研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 04:26

本文选题：资本账户自由化 + 金融稳定　；参考：《辽宁大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：如果说在过去的时间里，经济全球化给人们留下什么印记的话，那么最清晰的印记莫过于资本账户自由化。这是因为资本账户自由化曾经承载过许多发展经济、增加国民财富的预期，记录了兑现预期的欢欣，也见证了失败的痛楚。基于此，世界各国的学者从不同角度、不同层面做着艰苦的探索：究竟是什么原因促使资本账户自由化促进金融稳定收获正向收益？是什么原因促使其影响金融稳定收获负向收益？人们曾把求索的目光聚焦在是操作失误所致？是承载环境不配合所致？还是政策原生性弊端和衍生性缺陷所致？总之，人类的睿智一直不停地追寻着这一问题的真谛。本论文的目的就在于通过中东欧转轨国家推行资本账户自由化的过程表现，通过定性定量的方法分析制约资本账户自由化的因素，在此基础上探寻导致正向收益和负向收益背后一般原因、特殊原因和深层次原因，进而试图找到可以趋利避害保持金融稳定的正确路径。最后，为我国在经济全球化过程中，推行资本账户自由化提出一点对策和建议。具体地说，本论文共包括八章内容，，主要设置如下：第一章，简要介绍了本论文研究的目的和意义，明确研究对象，梳理文献理论，指出了目前研究的不足，提出研究方法、研究内容，以及本论文的创新之处。第二章，提出了一个解释框架，并将其使用在转轨背景下，阐释资本账户自由化的制约因素，及资本账户自由化与金融稳定的关系。第三章，分析在政治约束条件与经济约束条件，及在在这两个条件的制约下，金融稳定状态在中东欧转轨国家的经济表现。第四章，着重介绍了与中东欧转轨国家实施资本账户自由化相配合的制度构建，以银行业制度构建、金融市场制度构建和汇率制度构建为例。第五章，阐述了中东欧转轨国家实施资本账户自由化的模式。指出实质性的问题在于，这些国家在资本市场的开放程度上呈现过度化。第六章，在前文研究的基础上，实证分析资本账户自由化的制约因素。第七章，着重展示了中东欧转轨国家实施资本账户自由化的正向收益和负向收益。突显出自由化在其中的主要推手作用。同时也彰显中东欧转轨国家借助资本账户自由化的机制作用，大量引入外资并主要以此支撑国民经济发展的不可持续性。特别是，在分析诸多原因之后，指出了浸入新自由主义经济发展模式主张的资本账户自由化政策自身原生性弊端以及由此产生的消极影响。反映出由正向收益转向负向收益的必然性。第八章，对全文进行进一步的总结，并以为借鉴，为我国推行资本账户自由化政策提出一些建议。本文获得的主要结论是： 1.定性分析发现政治约束条件、经济约束条件对资本账户自由化的推动作用，制度构建对资本账户自由化实施的保障作用。过度开放对资本账户自由化收益方向起到重要的作用。资本账户自由化本身原生性弊端限制了其效力的正常发挥，助推了金融不稳定。 2.在定性研究的基础上，通过建立面板数据的固定效应模型定量地确定了这些因素对资本账户自由化的具体影响方向。银行业发展与资本账户控制指数成负相关关系，金融市场发展和经济增长与资本账户控制指数成正相关关系。
[Abstract]:If in the past time, economic globalization to give people the impression of what mark, then the mark is the capital account liberalization. This is because the capital account liberalization has been carrying too many economic development, increase national wealth is expected to deliver the expected record of joy, also witnessed the pain of failure. Based on this, many scholars in the world from different angles, different levels of doing hard exploration: what prompted the capital account liberalization to promote financial stability gains positive returns? What is the reason to influence the financial stability gains negative returns? People have focus on the search operation is caused by bearing? The environment does not match the original policy caused? Or drawbacks and defects caused by derivative? In a word, the wisdom of mankind constantly pursue the true meaning of this problem.
The purpose of this thesis is through the process in transition countries of Eastern Europe promoting capital account liberalization, by means of qualitative and quantitative analysis of restricting factors of capital account liberalization, on this basis, explore the cause of positive earnings and negative returns general cause, special cause and deep-seated reasons, and then try to find the right path to avoid to maintain financial stability. Finally, for our country in the process of economic globalization, the implementation of capital account liberalization, put forward some countermeasures and suggestions. Specifically, this paper includes eight chapters, mainly arranged as follows:
The first chapter briefly introduces the purpose and significance of this thesis, a clear research object, combing the literature theory, pointed out the deficiency of current research, put forward the research methods, research content and innovation of this paper.
The second chapter puts forward a framework for interpretation, and use it in the background of transition, explains the restricting factors of capital account liberalization, capital account liberalization and relationship and financial stability.
The third chapter, on the analysis of political constraints and economic constraints, and constraints on these two conditions, the financial stability state of economic performance in the Eastern European countries in transition.
The fourth chapter focuses on the construction and implementation of central and Eastern European transition countries capital account liberalization is matched to the banking system, construction system, construction of financial market system and exchange rate system as an example.
The fifth chapter describes the implementation of capital account liberalization in transition countries of Eastern Europe. That is the real problem, these countries the degree of openness in the capital market is excessive.
The sixth chapter, on the basis of the above research, the empirical analysis of factors restricting capital account liberalization.
The seventh chapter mainly shows in the transition countries of Eastern Europe to implement capital account liberalization positive and negative income income. Highlights the liberalization in the main role in pushing hands of them. At the same time also manifest in the transition countries of Eastern Europe by the mechanism of capital account liberalization, unsustainable large foreign capital and mainly to support the development of the national economy especially, after the analysis of many reasons, pointed out that the capital account liberalization policy in the new liberalism economic development model of its original defects and the resulting negative impact. Reflected by positive returns to negative inevitable returns.
The eighth chapter further summary to the full text, and put forward some suggestions as reference, for the implementation of the capital account liberalization policy in China.
The main conclusions of this paper are:
1. qualitative analysis found that political constraints, economic constraints of the role of capital account liberalization, construction of the system of protection of capital account liberalization. Over opening an important role to the liberalization of capital account income direction. The capital account liberalization of the original defects limit its effectiveness in normal play, boost the financial instability.
2. based on qualitative research, through the establishment of quantitative panel data fixed effects model to determine the specific effects of these factors on the direction of capital account liberalization. The development of banking and capital account control index of a negative correlation between financial market development and economic growth and capital account control index is positively related.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F835.1

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