真实储蓄测度理论与方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 11:49

本文选题：可持续发展 + 可持续发展测度　；参考：《东北财经大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：可持续发展的概念自诞生之日起就引发了学术界众多的质疑、争论,目前唯一能够达成共识的观点是：为了全人类共同的利益,必须力求实现可持续发展。为了达到这一目标,首要的工作就是对可持续发展现状进行全面、科学和客观的测度。目前各国的研究者从理论或现实的不同角度,提出了许多可持续发展测度方法,比较著名的就有绿色GDP、生态足迹方法等。世界银行开发的真实储蓄方法将国民财富与可持续发展联系到一起,认为财富、福利与可持续发展是紧密联系的,提醒民众和决策者意识到资源、环境等自然福利因素和教育的重要性。经作者对这一方法的系统研究发现：真实储蓄测度方法的理论基础以及测度技术虽然在目前存在各种缺陷,但这并不妨碍它作为一种合理的可持续发展测度方法为公众提供相应的信息。而且在对其进行批评研究的过程中,对可持续发展与可持续发展测度的探寻又加深了一步。因此作者更愿意把本文看作是一个楔子,一个起点,虽然研究主题是真实储蓄的测度理论与方法,但是真正的研究对象是对可持续发展路径和可持续发展测度的核心问题,这对当前的中国可持续发展研究更有参考价值。本文是对真实储蓄测度理论与方法进行系统性研究,全文共分为七章。第一章为序言,主要介绍文章的研究背景、意义及国内外研究现状。第二章与第三章是真实储蓄理论导论。这两部分是理解与研究真实储蓄的必要前提与基础。第二章是对可持续发展基本概念与理论的阐释。本章主要介绍的是可持续发展的基本概念,阐明经济学家是如何思考可持续性问题的,特别是经济学家如何通过建立模型来探索可持续性的条件、评价经济活动的方式是否满足可持续性目标以及为之提出政策建议,同时还将讨论生态学家对可持续性的思考。在第三章中作者将对国民财富核算的理论、方法以及最新的研究成果进行介绍与分析。当代的经济学家认为财富、福利与可持续发展是紧密联系的。当前的国民财富存量被认为是未来消费的现值,也是未来社会福利实现的基础。由此,可持续发展就是创造、保持和管理财富的过程。国民财富核算与真实储蓄测度,是分别针对财富存量与流量的评估,进而对一国可持续发展能力进行判断。第四章到第六章是本文的核心部分,将按照“理论研究——方法研究——实证研究”的路径,对真实储蓄进行深入系统研究。第四章为真实储蓄的理论思辨。真实储蓄可以被视为是新古典经济学的一个具体应用,是新古典经济学家在对市场、资源、社会福利综合考虑,探求可持续发展路径的成果。新古典经济学的三个经济法则——霍特林法则、Solow-Hartwick模型和弱可持续发展范式,如同三个支柱支撑着真实储蓄理论。但是任何一个有经济学常识的人都应该明确的知道,每一种经济模型都建立严格的经验假设的基础之上的,是对复杂现实的简化。本章将对真实储蓄理论的三个经济模型进行理论思辨,其中的分析将会更全面客观的认识真实储蓄测度提供依据,并指出由某些“假设”带来的先天性缺陷。第五章是真实储蓄的方法研究。测度方法很重要,它关系到从财富来测度可持续发展的尝试能否最终实现。真实储蓄测度方法从本质上来说还是一种绿色GDP的变形,它最重要的工作是在现有GDP的基础上对资源损耗与环境污染损失进行货币化评估。这也是真实储蓄测度最大的难点。因此,在对最后结果的经济解释和政策指导必须注意到评估工作的现实难度和真实储蓄测度理论本身的缺陷。本章将以中国的“真实储蓄”数据为例,对这一问题进行说明。第六章中运用前文中的研究成果,利用真实储蓄方法对2000-2009年间辽宁省可持续发展能力进行评价。在对最终结果的分析时,作者更重视与现实情况的结合以及在计算过程中呈现的经济与资源环境之间联系的特点。进一步的,对真实储蓄各个组成部分进行分析,寻找到财富增长的具体原因,更重要的是财富的增长带来了什么,是更多的社会福利还是更多的环境污染。最后结合研究结论,提出相应的政策建议。第七章是对全文研究进行总结,并对未来研究提出展望。
[Abstract]:The concept of sustainable development has caused many questions in the academic world since its birth. The only point of argument, at present, is that it is necessary to achieve sustainable development for the common interests of all mankind. In order to achieve this goal, the first work is to carry out a comprehensive, scientific and objective situation for the status of sustainable development. At present, researchers in various countries have put forward a lot of measures for sustainable development from different angles of theory or reality. The famous methods are green GDP and ecological footprint. The real savings method developed by the world bank links national wealth with sustainable development, and believes that wealth, welfare and sustainable development are closely linked. A systematic study of the natural welfare factors, such as resources and environment, and the importance of education. A systematic study of this method by the author has found that the theoretical basis of the real savings measure and the measurement technology, although there are various defects at present, do not obstruct it as a reasonable measure of sustainable development. The author is more willing to consider this article as a wedge and a starting point, although the research topic is the measurement theory and method of real storage, but the real research is done. The object is the core issue of sustainable development path and sustainable development measurement, which is more valuable for China's sustainable development research.
This paper is a systematic study of the theory and method of real savings measurement. The full text is divided into seven chapters.
The first chapter is the preface, which mainly introduces the research background, significance and research status at home and abroad.
The second and third chapters are an introduction to the theory of real savings. These two parts are necessary prerequisites and foundations for understanding and studying real savings.
The second chapter is an explanation of the basic concepts and theories of sustainable development. This chapter mainly introduces the basic concepts of sustainable development, clarifies how economists think about sustainability, especially how economists explore the conditions of sustainability by establishing models and evaluate the sustainability of economic activities. Objectives and policy recommendations, while ecologists will also consider sustainability.
In the third chapter, the author will introduce and analyze the theory, method and the latest research results of national wealth accounting. Contemporary economists believe that wealth, welfare and sustainable development are closely linked. The current stock of national wealth is considered as the present value of future consumption and the basis for the realization of future social welfare. Sustainable development is the process of creating, maintaining and managing wealth. The measure of national wealth accounting and real savings is to assess the stock and flow of wealth, and then to judge the capacity of a country's sustainable development.
The fourth chapter to the sixth chapter is the core part of this article. It will make a thorough and systematic study of real savings in accordance with the path of "theoretical research - Method Research - Empirical Study".
The fourth chapter is the theoretical speculation of real savings. Real savings can be regarded as a specific application of neoclassical economics. It is the result of the new classical economists taking the market, resources, social welfare into consideration and exploring the path of sustainable development. The three economic principles of neoclassical economics, Hotelling's law, Solow-Hartwick model And the weak sustainable development paradigm, as three pillars support the real savings theory. But anyone with economic common sense should know clearly that every economic model is based on strict empirical assumptions and is a simplification of complex realities. This chapter will rationale the three economic models of real savings theory. The analysis will provide a basis for a more comprehensive and objective understanding of the real savings measure, and point out the congenital defects caused by certain assumptions.
The fifth chapter is the study of the method of real savings. The measurement method is very important. It is related to the ultimate realization of the attempt to measure the sustainable development from wealth. The real savings measure is essentially a green GDP deformation, and its most important work is on the loss of resources and environmental pollution on the basis of the existing GDP. It is also the most difficult point to measure the real savings. Therefore, in the economic interpretation and policy guidance of the final results, it is necessary to pay attention to the practical difficulty of the assessment and the defects of the real savings measure theory itself. This chapter will take the Chinese "real savings" data as an example to explain the problem.
The sixth chapter uses the research results in the previous article to evaluate the sustainable development capacity of Liaoning Province in the past 2000-2009 years by using the real savings method. In the analysis of the final results, the author pays more attention to the combination of the actual situation and the characteristics of the relationship between the economic and resource environment in the process of calculation. Each component is analyzed in order to find out the specific reasons for the growth of wealth. What is more important is what the growth of wealth brings, more social welfare or more environmental pollution. Finally, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward in combination with the conclusions of the research.
The seventh chapter is the summary of the full text research and prospects for future research.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F830.48

【参考文献】