中国国际资本流动的货币效应

发布时间：2018-04-25 03:18

本文选题：国际资本流动 + 货币效应　；参考：《经济评论》2013年02期

【摘要】：本文根据中国的实际情况对BGT模型进行了修正,并利用OLS方法和2SLS方法及中国2000-2011年间的月度数据进行实证检验。检验结果表明:虽然中国国际资本流动对中央银行净国内资产变动的抵消系数高达-0.743,但中央银行反向的冲销操作同样十分有效,冲销系数高达-1.022。这不仅使得国际资本流动对我国基础货币和货币供给的影响极其有限,甚至引起了货币乘数和物价水平的反向变化。事实上,净国外资产变动一个单位只能使基础货币和货币供给分别增加0.018个单位和0.098个单位,却会使货币乘数和通货膨胀分别下降4.095和1.098个单位。这说明近年来中国国际资本流动的货币效应都十分微弱,货币政策效应却很强。
[Abstract]:This paper modifies the BGT model according to the actual situation in China, and makes an empirical test by using the OLS method, 2SLS method and monthly data from 2000 to 2011 in China. The test results show that although the offset coefficient of China's international capital flows to the central bank's net domestic assets movements is as high as -0.743, the reverse sterilisation operation of the central bank is also very effective, with a sterilisation coefficient of -1.022. This not only makes the influence of international capital flow on China's basic money and money supply extremely limited, but also causes the reverse change of monetary multiplier and price level. In fact, changes in net foreign assets per unit can only increase the base money supply by 0.018 units and money supply by 0.098 units, but reduce the monetary multiplier and inflation by 4.095 units and 1.098 units, respectively. This shows that the monetary effect of China's international capital flow is very weak in recent years, but the monetary policy effect is very strong.
【作者单位】：江苏大学财经学院;武汉大学经济与管理学院金融系;
【基金】：国家教育部基金项目“经济开放度、货币政策有效性和货币政策国际协调——基于新开放宏观经济学视角的研究”(编号:10YJA790066) 广东省社科规划项目“转轨时期我国金融脆弱性特殊生成机理研究”(编号:GD10CLJ02) 江苏大学校基金资助项目“经济一体化、宏观经济政策有效性和国际协调”(编号:11JD178) 江苏大学博士后流动站的科研资助
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0;F224

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