人民币汇率变动对中国进出口贸易额的影响

发布时间：2018-04-26 06:46

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 国别　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国自加入WTO以来,人民币是否应大幅升值一直是国际社会争议的热点。国际经济学认为,本币升值会使一国出口商品的相对价格上升,进口商品的相对价格下降,这将削弱出口商品在国际市场上的竞争力,导致该国进口增加、出口减少。可见,在影响贸易收支的众多因素中,汇率起着举足轻重的作用。同时,作为国际间经济联系的纽带,汇率在国际贸易和国际金融中起到的价格转换作用,使其成为调节贸易收支的重要杠杆之一。1994年以来,人民币就开始稳步升值。截止2012年初,人民币名义和实际有效汇率累计升值幅度已分别超过37.4%和59.8%。然而迄今为止,我国对外贸易顺差扩大的势头仍未得到有效遏制。随着我国对外贸易顺差规模的迅猛扩大,主要贸易伙伴国对华贸易赤字不断增大,贸易摩擦也日渐严重。美国失业率上升,欧元债务危机日益加剧,国际经济形势的种种恶化,使得贸易伙伴国内的贸易保护主义抬头。在国内内需拉动不足、出口增长举步维艰、国外贸易保护势力不断抬头的多重背景下,我国与不同贸易伙伴国的进出口额由于人民币的持续升值将会产生何种变化。人民银行行长周小川日前表示将继续扩大人民币双向波动范围、进一步深化人民币汇率制度改革。那么汇率波动率的增大能否如同预期般改善我国的进出口贸易?08年席卷全球的金融危机对我国的进出口贸易产生了巨大影响,然而对于不同国家,此影响并不相同。现有的研究大多站在总量的角度讨论人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易额的影响,而忽略不同国别(地区)间的差异。本文在查阅大量文献的基础上,另辟蹊径,拟定从国别的角度,借助不完全传递理论,研究人民币不同币种双边汇率变动对不同国别进出口额间的数量关系。具体而言,提出如下4个问题： (1)人民币双边汇率的水平变动对不同国别的进出口贸易额的影响作用分析； (2)人民币双边汇率的波动不同,对不同国别的进出口贸易额的影响力度分析； (3)加入WTO对中国与不同国家的进出口的影响分析； (4)2008年美国次贷危机,对我国与不同贸易伙伴国进出口的影响效应分析。围绕上述问题,本文对人民币汇率的变动与我国不同的贸易伙伴国(地区)的进出口之间的关系进行了系统的研究,具体的安排和内容如下：第一章,导论。作为全文的导入和提出问题部分,主要对文章的选题背景,研究意义,研究定义以及研究思路进行介绍。第二章,文献综述。本章分为三个小节。第一节是文章的理论综述部分,分别介绍了弹性分析理论、吸收分析理论和不完全传递理论,其中,弹性分析理论又细分为购买力平价理论、马歇尔-勒纳条件和J曲线效应。第二节对国内外有关汇率变动对进出口影响的研究进行了回顾,包括J曲线效应和马歇尔-勒纳条件是否成立及汇率的不完全传递性上。第三节对现有文献行了述评。在J曲线效应和马歇尔-勒纳条件是否成立这一问题的研究上由于样本选择不同,计量方法选用的不同,结论差别较大。但是学者们在对汇率不完全传递的研究中发现,汇率在传递过程中基本是不完全的。第三章,不同贸易伙伴国之间的贸易特征。如果说第二章提出了汇率与进出口的关系需要分国别研究的话,那么这一章的目的就是要回答我国与不同贸易伙伴国(地区)之间究竟存在哪些差异。本章选取了我国前六大贸易伙伴国,分别就不同贸易国的进出口额、贸易结构和贸易额的增长速度等进行了对比分析。结果表明：经济发展水平、政治、历史文化等诸多因素,使得我国与不同国家间的对外贸易确实存在着巨大的差异。第四章,实证部分。第一节进行了模型的设定,最终选用了毕克戴克—罗宾逊—梅茨勒模型。第二节为数据的处理,选取的国家和地区具体为：巴西、印度、日本、韩国、马来西亚、俄罗斯、新加坡、美国和欧盟。这九个国家(地区)不仅有发达国家还有发展中国家,除了美国、日本传统的经济强国外,还有新兴经济体的代表巴西、印度、俄罗斯等金砖四国,可以说样本的选取具有一定程度的代表性。考虑到汇率的波动率可能会对我国的进出口产生影响,第三节给出了人民币双边汇率波动率的测算过程；第四节为模型的检验部分,检验结果表明：除波动率外,所有变量均为一阶单整,且变量间存在协整关系。第五节给出了模型的估计结果,并就有关结果给出了相关的经济学解释。第五章,结论部分。通过理论和实证研究,本文得出了结论主要是： 1)人民币汇率的水平变动会对我国的进出口额产生影响。其中,对出口的影响较为显著,并且不同国别间的弹性系数相同；而汇率的水平变动对不同国家的进口则存在着一定的差异； 2)汇率波动率对我国进口的影响不明显,但出口模型中,汇率波动率的系数较为显著,且为负值。这意味着汇率波动率的增大会减少我国的出口,这种现象可以用风险偏好理论解释：即对外贸易中,厂商是风险厌恶的,由于在货币支付前需要签订贸易合同,当汇率波动率增加时,对汇率的预测将更加困难,从而在一定程度上增加了交易成本,导致了交易者的出口减少； 3)加入WTO促进了我国的进出口,并且出口的增长幅度大于进口；但韩国、日本两国的弹性系数较印度、巴西等要小的多,这可能是因为我国同日韩两国的贸易优惠已经较为普遍,即便加入WTO对于双方进出口间的促进作用也极其有限； 4)次贷危机对我国与不同国别进出口的效应大都为负,并且出口模型中,对欧盟的影响最大,而对马来西亚、印度影响较小,且系数均不显著,这可能是因为上述国家的经济较为落后,与世界的经济往来不密切相关。本文的创新之处为：现有文献大多是站在总量的角度构建汇率和贸易之间的模型,而较少分国别(地区)讨论；我国对不同国家(地区),特别是发达国家和发展中国家的进出口结构差异较大,人民币汇率变动时,不同国家(地区)的进出口会受到不同的影响。现有站在总量角度的分析忽略了国别间的差异,而分国别建模就使得汇率变动对不同国家进出口额的影响得以量化,研究的针对性更强,结论更易令人信服。汇改后,汇率的波动性显著加强。因此本文在建模时还加入了汇率波动率这一变量。除此之外,本文还考虑了外生因素,加入了WTO和次贷金融危机两个变量。
[Abstract]:Since China's accession to the WTO, it has been a hot issue in the international community to see whether the RMB should be appreciating greatly. International economics believes that the appreciation of the local currency will increase the relative price of the export commodities of a country and the relative price of the imported goods, which will weaken the competitiveness of the export commodities in the international market, and lead to the increase of the country's imports and the decrease of its exports. It is obvious that exchange rate plays an important role in many factors affecting trade balance. At the same time, as the link of international economic ties, exchange rate plays the role of price conversion in international trade and international finance, making it an important lever to adjust the trade balance. Since.1994 years, the RMB has begun to appreciate steadily. Up to 2012. At the beginning of the year, the cumulative appreciation of the nominal and real effective exchange rates of the RMB has exceeded 37.4% and 59.8%., respectively, but so far, the expansion of China's foreign trade surplus has not been effectively curbed.
With the rapid expansion of the scale of China's foreign trade surplus, the trade deficit of the major trading partners is increasing and the trade frictions are getting worse. The unemployment rate in the United States is rising, the debt crisis of the euro is increasing, the international economic situation is deteriorating, and the trade protectionism of the trade partners is rising. Under the multiple background of the rise of foreign trade protection forces, what changes will be produced by China and different trade partner countries due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB? Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the people's Bank, will continue to expand the two-way fluctuation range of the RMB and further deepen the RMB exchange rate system. Reform. Then, can the increase of exchange rate fluctuate as expected to improve China's import and export trade? The financial crisis that swept the globe in 08 years has a great impact on China's import and export trade. However, this effect is not the same for different countries. On the basis of consulting a large number of documents, this paper, on the basis of consulting a large number of documents, draws up a new way to draw up a new way to study the quantitative relationship between the import and export volume of different countries in different currencies from the perspective of country and the theory of incomplete transfer. In particular, the following 4 questions are put forward. :
(1) the influence of the horizontal exchange rate of RMB on the import and export volume of different countries;
(2) the influence of the fluctuation of RMB bilateral exchange rate on the import and export volume of different countries;
(3) the impact of China's accession to the WTO on China's imports and exports with different countries;
(4) the impact of the US subprime crisis in 2008 on the import and export of China and different trading partners.
Around the above problems, this paper systematically studies the relationship between the change of RMB exchange rate and the import and export of different trade partner countries (regions) in China. The specific arrangements and contents are as follows:
The first chapter is introduction. As the introduction and question part of the full text, it mainly introduces the background, significance, definition and research ideas of the article.
The second chapter is a literature review. This chapter is divided into three sections. The first section is the theoretical summary of the article. It introduces elastic analysis theory, absorption analysis theory and incomplete transfer theory, in which elastic analysis theory is subdivided into purchasing power parity theory, Marshall Lerner piece and J curve effect. The second section is related to exchange rate change at home and abroad. The research on the influence of dynamic on import and export is reviewed, including whether the J curve effect and Marshall Lerner condition are established and the exchange rate is incomplete transfer. The third section reviews the existing literature. In the study of whether the J curve effect and the Marshall Lena condition are established, the selection of the sample is different and the measurement method is not selected. The conclusion is that the exchange rate is not complete in the transmission process.
The third chapter, the trade characteristics between different trade partners. If the second chapter puts forward the relationship between exchange rate and import and export, the purpose of this chapter is to answer the differences between China and the different trading partners (regions). This chapter selected the top six trade partners of our country, respectively. The import and export volume of different trading countries, the trade structure and the growth rate of trade volume have been compared and analyzed. The results show that the economic development level, politics, historical culture and many other factors make the foreign trade between China and different countries really have huge differences.
The fourth chapter, empirical part. The first section set up the model, finally selected the bike Deckard Robinson Metzler model. The second section is the data processing, the selected countries and regions are the Brazil, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Russia, the new slope, the United States and the European Union. These nine countries (regions) not only have developed countries. In addition to the developing countries, in addition to the United States, the Japanese traditional economy is strong, and the emerging economies represent Brazil, India, Russia and other BRIC countries, it can be said that the selection of the samples has a certain degree of representativeness. Considering the exchange rate volatility may have an impact on the import and export of our country, the third section gives the RMB bilateral exchange. The calculation process of rate volatility; the fourth section is the test part of the model. The test results show that all variables are one order single whole except the volatility, and there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. The fifth section gives the estimated results of the model, and gives the relevant economic explanation for the related results.
The fifth chapter is the conclusion. Through theoretical and empirical research, the paper concludes that:
1) the change of the exchange rate of RMB will affect the import and export volume of our country. Among them, the influence on the export is more significant and the elastic coefficient is the same in different countries; and the change of the exchange rate has certain differences on the import of different countries.
2) the influence of exchange rate volatility on China's import is not obvious, but in the export model, the coefficient of exchange rate volatility is more significant and negative. This means that the increase of exchange rate volatility will reduce our country's export. This phenomenon can be explained by the risk preference theory: in foreign trade, the manufacturer is a risk aversion, due to the payment before the payment of money. It is necessary to sign a trade contract. When the rate of exchange rate increases, it will be more difficult to predict the exchange rate, thus increasing the transaction cost to a certain extent, resulting in the reduction of traders' exports.
3) joining WTO promotes China's import and export, and the increase of export is greater than that of import, but the elasticity coefficient of Korea and Japan is much smaller than that of India and Brazil. This may be because the trade preferences of China and Japan and South Korea are more common, even if WTO has a very limited role in promoting the import and export of both sides.
4) the subprime mortgage crisis has most negative effects on the import and export of China and different countries, and the export model has the greatest impact on the European Union, while the impact on Malaysia, India is small and the coefficient is not significant. This may be because the economies of the above countries are relatively backward and not closely related to the economic exchanges in the world.
The innovation of this paper is that most of the existing literature is to build a model between exchange rate and trade from the point of view of the total amount, but less on the discussion of the country (region); the import and export structure of different countries (regions), especially the developed countries and the developing countries is different, the exchange rate of RMB exchange rate, the import and export of different countries (regions) The analysis of the current station in the total point of view neglects the difference between countries, and the modeling of the country can make the exchange rate change to quantify the influence of the import and export of different countries, the research is more pertinent and the conclusion is more convincing. After the remittance, the wave mobility of the exchange rate is greatly strengthened. Therefore, this paper also joins the model in the modeling. In addition to the exchange rate volatility, this article also takes account of exogenous factors, and adds two variables, WTO and subprime mortgage financial crisis.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F752.6

【参考文献】