美国次贷危机后中国的货币政策及效果研究：2007～2011年

发布时间：2018-04-27 15:14

本文选题：次贷危机 + 货币供给量　；参考：《内蒙古大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：2007年到2011年间,中国国内经济先后经历了由美国次贷危机引发的紧缩性危机,到经济短暂触底后的迅速反弹,再到经济复苏后高企的通货膨胀压力。短时间内加剧的经济波动给国内货币政策的选择与实施带来了前所未有的挑战。在没有形成完全利率市场化的情况下,货币供给量的调整自然成为了我国主要的货币政策调控手段。货币政策的有效性是进行货币政策调控的前提与基础,只有在货币政策是有效的情况下,利用货币政策工具对货币政策目标实施影响,才能最终影响实际产出等宏观经济变量,进而达到对宏观经济进行调控的目的。货币政策有效性问题的研究涉及两个主要理论：货币中性与非中性理论和货币内生性与外生性理论。只有在货币是非中性的情况下,货币政策才会对实体经济变量产生影响,进而影响实际产出的变化,这才进一步涉及政策效果问题。否则,货币政策是无效的,不影响实际产出。而货币是内生还是外生的,直接影响货币政策实施及作用方式,当货币存在内生性时,将给货币政策的制定与实施带来一定难度。为研究上述时期内,中国货币政策及作用效果,本文选取了货币供给量、产出和物价水平等主要宏观经济数据,运用变量自回归(VAR)模型和相关计量分析模型及方法,对货币供给量与产出、物价水平间的相互关系进行了实证分析。在此基础上,对本轮货币政策的实际有效性进行了研究与判断,并得出了相关结论,即这一时期内,中国国内货币是非中性的,并且有一定的内生性特征,货币政策总体是有效的,但实际作用效果有限,中间传递过程中存在阻碍和明显的时滞性。这一结论对进一步研究紧缩性危机背景下,中国货币政策有效性问题具有一定的意义。
[Abstract]:Between 2007 and 2011, China's domestic economy experienced a tightening crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, a rapid rebound after a brief bottoming out, and high inflationary pressures after an economic recovery. The aggravation of economic fluctuation in a short period of time brings unprecedented challenges to the choice and implementation of domestic monetary policy. In the absence of a complete marketization of interest rates, the adjustment of money supply has naturally become the main means of monetary policy regulation in China. The effectiveness of monetary policy is the premise and foundation of monetary policy regulation and control. Only when monetary policy is effective, can macroeconomic variables such as actual output be influenced by monetary policy tools. To achieve the goal of macroeconomic regulation and control. The study on the validity of monetary policy involves two main theories: the theory of monetary neutrality and non-neutrality and the theory of monetary endogenicity and externality. Only when the currency is not neutral, the monetary policy will have an impact on the real economic variables, and then affect the change of the actual output, which further involves the effect of the policy. Otherwise, monetary policy is ineffective and does not affect actual output. When money is endogenous or exogenous, it will directly affect the implementation of monetary policy and its mode of action. When money exists endogenously, it will bring some difficulties to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy. In order to study the monetary policy and its effect in the period mentioned above, this paper selects the main macroeconomic data, such as the quantity of money supply, output and price level, and applies the variable autoregressive (VAR) model and the relevant econometric analysis model and method. The relationship between money supply, output and price level is analyzed empirically. On this basis, the actual effectiveness of this round of monetary policy is studied and judged, and the relevant conclusions are drawn, that is, the domestic currency in China is non-neutral in this period and has some endogenous characteristics. Monetary policy is effective on the whole, but the effect of monetary policy is limited, and there is hindrance and obvious delay in the process of intermediate transmission. This conclusion is of significance to further study the effectiveness of China's monetary policy in the context of the contractionary crisis.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F224

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