外向直接投资与中国外贸演化：机理与实证

发布时间：2018-04-28 05:01

本文选题：外向直接投资 + 贸易规模效应　；参考：《浙江大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：中国对外贸易以往三十多年的快速发展并由贸易小国迅速变为贸易大国的跳跃式扩张,得益于一系列按照时间序列展开与叠加的因素。早期几乎完全仰仗有限的体制改革和限于特区的引进外资,后来是整个沿海地区的对外开放,再后来是“入世”与履行“入世”承诺的全方位对外开放,最后则是企业“走出去”与外向直接投资(ODI)。这些因素相继成为围绕中国外贸扩张研究的热点论题。最近的热点论题之一,无疑是0DI对于外贸发展的效应。ODI与外贸扩张原本是国际经济学的一个老论题,但已有研究存在两个明显的偏向：一个是有关理论几乎完全基于发达工业化国家以往的现实提出,鲜有基于新兴市场经济体的理论。另一个是大多围绕着ODI与贸易的互补抑或替代关系展开,而忽略了此类效应作用的机理以及别的贸易效应,尤其是贸易结构效应与贸易条件效应。本文主旨,就在于从新兴市场经济体ODI所具有的特点出发,以中国现实数据为依据,分析ODI在中国贸易规模、贸易结构与贸易条件动态演化中的系列效应。机理分析方面,本文从资本流动与母国贸易的关系切入,通过对Mundell模型从小国模型到大国模型的扩展,刻画了资本流动对母国贸易条件变化的作用机理。考虑到ODI流动中企业决策的核心地位,故从跨国公司利润最大化目标的假定出发,构建了反映ODI母国贸易效应的理论模型,分析了ODI对母国贸易替代效应或互补效应的作用机理。在此基础上引出三个实证命题,分别围绕ODI-贸易数量动态变化、ODI-贸易结构动态变化以及ODI-贸易条件动态变化展开。实证检验以机理分析为基础,以中国ODI扩展现实为线索及依据,构建了一个实证检验模型,引入UNCTAD和WTO数据分别对中国ODI的贸易规模效应、贸易结构效应和贸易条件效应进行了实证检验。其中,围绕第一个命题的实证检验证明,中国ODI存量与流量都对外贸规模产生了明显的影响,且存量对外贸规模的影响大于流量。具体而言,从1982年到2010年,ODI的贸易规模效应最为明显,ODI存量促进了货物贸易和服务贸易进出口规模的全面扩张；但从2005至2010年中国ODI的地区分布看,ODI对货物出口的影响存在着一定差异,符合“中国式”ODI的理论判断。围绕第二个实证命题的检验证明,当ODI-贸易规模效应发生,进而会产生ODI-贸易结构效应,但是ODI-贸易结构效应存在着一定的时滞。具体地说,通过时间序列检验的ODI母国贸易结构效应不如贸易规模效应显著；但通过对2006至2010年七个细分行业的ODI和贸易的面板数据分析表明,无论ODI存量还是ODI流量都对这些行业的贸易结构产生了影响。围绕第三个实证命题的检验证明,ODI会产生一定的贸易条件效应,但ODI不是决定贸易条件变化的最主要因素。通过时间序列对ODI的贸易条件效应进行检验表明,ODI产生了一定的贸易条件效应,ODI存量一定程度上有助于中国贸易条件改善,而ODI流量却加速了贸易条件的恶化,但是影响贸易条件效应变化的最主要因素仍然是国际与国内市场的需求变化。上述结论的理论意义,首先在于对ODI-贸易效应论题研究视野的拓展与命题本身的深化。从作为新兴市场经济体而具有的“中国式ODI”特征切入,将论题由单纯的贸易规模效应拓展至结构效应和贸易条件效应,同时对以往研究所关注的规模效应进行了综合视野的动态化拓展。实证检验按照命题要求探索了新的方法。研究的现实政策启示在于,政府旨在鼓励企业“走出去”与对外投资的政策目标,不仅应考虑其单纯的境外市场与境外资源开拓效应带来的贸易规模效应,而且更重要的应考虑其贸易结构效应和贸易条件效应,后两种贸易效应包涵了更多的贸易福利内涵。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of China's foreign trade over the past thirty years has been rapidly transformed from a small trade country to a big trading country. It has benefited from a series of factors that are unfolded and superimposed on a series of time series. Early on the limited system reform and the introduction of foreign capital limited to the special Economic Zone, it was later the opening of the whole coastal area. It is the full opening of "entering WTO" and fulfilling the promise of "entering WTO", and the last is the enterprise "going out" and outward direct investment (ODI). These factors have become a hot topic around the research of China's foreign trade expansion. One of the most recent hot topics is that the effect of 0DI on foreign trade development and foreign trade expansion is the original country. There is an old topic in the economics of InterWorld, but there are two obvious deviations in the study. One is that the theory is almost entirely based on the previous realities of the developed industrialized countries, and there are few theories based on emerging market economies. The other is mostly centered on the complementary or alternative relationship between ODI and trade, and neglects such effects. The mechanism and other trade effects, especially the trade structure effect and the trade condition effect. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the series effects of ODI in China's trade scale, trade structure and the dynamic evolution of trade conditions on the basis of the characteristics of ODI in emerging market economies.
In the aspect of mechanism analysis, this paper starts from the relationship between capital flow and home country trade. Through the expansion of the Mundell model from the small country model to the big country model, this paper portrays the mechanism of the action of capital flow to the change of the country's trade conditions. Considering the core position of the enterprise's decision-making in the ODI flow, it is assumed that the profit maximization target of the multinational corporation is assumed. The theoretical model that reflects the trade effect of ODI home country is constructed, and the mechanism of ODI's effect on the trade substitution effect or complementary effect of the country's trade is analyzed. On this basis, three positional propositions are derived, which revolve around the dynamic changes in the quantity of ODI- trade, the dynamic changes of the ODI- trade structure and the dynamic changes of the ODI- trade conditions.
The empirical test is based on the mechanism analysis, and based on the Chinese ODI expansion reality as the clue and basis, a empirical test model is constructed. The empirical test of the trade scale effect, trade structure effect and trade condition effect of China ODI is tested by introducing UNCTAD and WTO data respectively. The empirical test of the first proposition proves that China ODI Both stock and flow have a significant impact on the scale of foreign trade, and the impact of stock on the scale of foreign trade is greater than that of the flow. From 1982 to 2010, ODI has the most obvious trade scale effect, and the ODI stock promoted the overall expansion of the import and export of goods trade and service trade, but the regional distribution of ODI in China from 2005 to 2010. Look, there is a certain difference in the effect of ODI on the export of goods, which is in line with the theoretical judgment of "Chinese style" ODI. The test of second positional propositions proves that when the scale effect of ODI- trade occurs, then the ODI- trade structure effect will be produced, but there is a certain time lag in the ODI- trade structure effect. The trade structure effect of the ODI country is not as significant as the trade scale effect. But the analysis of the panel data of the ODI and trade of the seven segments of the 2006 to 2010 shows that both the ODI stock and the ODI flow have an impact on the trade structure of these industries. The test of the third positional propositions proves that ODI will produce a certain trade bar. Part effect, but ODI is not the most important factor in determining the change of trade conditions. Through the test of the trade condition effect of ODI through time series, it shows that ODI has a certain trade condition effect, and the ODI stock is helpful to the improvement of China's trade conditions to some extent, while the ODI flow has accelerated the deterioration of the trade conditions, but it affects the trade conditions. The most important factor of the change is still the demand change in the international and domestic markets.
The theoretical significance of the above conclusions lies in the expansion of the research field of the ODI- trade effect thesis and the deepening of the proposition itself. From the characteristics of "Chinese type ODI" as a new market economy, it extends the topic from the simple trade scale effect to the structure effect and the trade condition effect. At the same time, it pays attention to the previous research. The practical policy enlightenment of the study is that the government aims to encourage the policy goals of "going out" and foreign investment by the government, which should not only consider the scale effect of its pure overseas market and the exploitation effect of overseas resources. More importantly, trade structure effect and trade condition effect should be considered. The latter two trade effects contain more trade benefits connotation.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752;F224

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