香港离岸人民币市场发展对境内货币政策的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 22:30

本文选题：香港离岸人民币市场 + 货币政策　；参考：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：2007年爆发的金融危机,使我国意识到在国际货币储备上过分依赖美元的危险,另外,随着改革开放以来中国经济的不断发展,对外贸易的不断深化,使得人民币的国际认可度不断增强,进而促使我国提出人民币国际化的战略发展目标,考虑到我国资本项目尚未完全开放以及国内金融体系不够完善的情况下,离岸人民币市场的发展对于人民币国际化具有重大意义,香港离岸人民币市场作为最大的离岸人民币市场,自成立之初就发展迅猛,但是随着离岸人民币大规模的跨境流通和离岸人民币市场的快速发展,加之目前我国境内利率、汇率市场化程度不高,境内外人民币价格存在一定差异的情况下,随着香港人民币离岸市场的扩大而引起的套利资金的大规模流动,可能会对境内的货币供应量、利率、汇率水平产生一定程度的冲击,从而对境内货币政策的制定与执行效果产生影响。因此,快速发展完善香港人民币离岸金融中心的同时,深入研究如何应对离岸人民币及其跨境流通对境内货币政策的影响,具有非常重要的理论和实践意义。本文从理论与实证两个方面对香港离岸人民币市场的发展对境内货币政策的影响进行分析,理论方面分析了香港离岸人民币可能通过跨境流通渠道会对境内货币供应量产生的影响;离、在岸市场的利率影响关系以及离、在岸市场的汇率的影响关系。实证方面,运用Granger因果检验、VAR模型以及脉冲响应分析,对理论分析中的三个影响关系进行检验。理论与实证分析结果显示,香港离岸人民币市场的发展对境内货币政策的影响存在,但是目前来看并不显著。因此,目前仍应继续鼓励香港离岸人民币市场的发展,比如不断完善香港离岸人民币市场现阶段存在的问题以及加强人民币回流机制的管理等措施,同时也应继续推进境内市场改革。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis that broke out in 2007 has made our country aware of the danger of over-reliance on US dollars in international monetary reserves. In addition, with the continuous development of China's economy since the reform and opening up, foreign trade has been deepening. This makes the international recognition of the RMB continuously increase, and further urges our country to put forward the strategic development goal of RMB internationalization, considering that the capital account of our country has not yet been fully opened and the domestic financial system is not perfect enough. The development of offshore RMB market is of great significance to the internationalization of RMB. As the largest offshore RMB market in Hong Kong, the offshore RMB market has been developing rapidly since its inception. However, with the large-scale cross-border circulation of offshore renminbi and the rapid development of the offshore renminbi market, coupled with the current domestic interest rate, the degree of exchange rate marketization is not high, and there are certain differences in domestic and foreign RMB prices. With the expansion of the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong, the large-scale flow of profit-taking funds may have a certain impact on the domestic money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate level. Thus the domestic monetary policy formulation and implementation effect has an impact. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to deal with the impact of offshore RMB and its cross-border circulation on domestic monetary policy while developing and perfecting the offshore RMB offshore financial center in Hong Kong. This paper analyzes the impact of the development of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong on domestic monetary policy from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In theory, the paper analyzes the influence of offshore RMB in Hong Kong on the domestic money supply through cross-border circulation channels, the influence of interest rate on the onshore market and the influence of the exchange rate on the off-shore market. In the empirical aspect, the Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are used to test the three influence relationships in the theoretical analysis. The theoretical and empirical results show that the development of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong has a significant impact on domestic monetary policy, but it is not significant at present. Therefore, at present, we should continue to encourage the development of the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong. For example, we should constantly improve the problems existing in the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong at this stage and strengthen the management of the RMB return mechanism. At the same time, we should also continue to promote domestic market reform.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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