基于合作视角的我国主权财富基金对外投资战略研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 22:09

本文选题：主权财富基金 + 对外投资　；参考：《昆明理工大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：主权财富基金(Sovereign Wealth Fund, SWFs)作为重要的投资载体,是国际金融市场一类有影响力的投资者,受到了国内外学者的广泛关注。主权财富基金与私人财富相对应,是一国政府通过特定税收与预算分配、可再生自然资源收入和国际收支盈余等方式积累形成,由政府控制与支配,一般以外币形式持有的公共财富。作为我国SWFs的主要来源,截至2011年底,我国外汇储备已达近3.2万亿美元,为推行外汇资产多元化,防止单一美元资产的缩水,我国已将超额的外汇储备转化为国家主权财富基金进行管理。次贷危机发生以来,外汇储备国际分散化和资产多元化逐渐加快,但在花旗、黑石以及其它金融机构的投资亏损影响着SWFs的投资信心和投资成效。然而,SWFs是代表国家意志、具有主权性的投资主体,一方面有追求保值、增值的商业投资目的,另一方面又需要服务于国家战略意志,服务于国家中长期战略。正是由于SWFs的政府背景使得许多发达国家对它表现出了较高的警惕性,主要出于两方面的担忧。其一担忧SWFs服务于政治目的,如军事战略产业,其二担忧作为潜在的大股东干预全球市场。结果使得SWFs的投资领域和途径大大受到限制。为此,如何绕开东道国各种壁垒、降低东道国的警惕性成为迫切需要解决的重要问题。本文认为SWFs对外战略投资不仅要考虑已方利益,还要考虑东道国利益。不仅从理论层面对SWFs投资战略进行分析,而且要考虑到理论的实用性和可执行性,要建立完备的投资机制促进战略的实施。本文认为SWFs对外投资不仅应与国家经济发展战略结合起来,多层次、多渠道、多路径支持国内产业发展,尤其支持国内经济关键节点、关键行业和关键区域的发展,同时,要与投资东道国构建一种和谐共容机制,即建立合作机制实现让渡一部分投资价值予东道国或为东道国带来正的经济外部性,进而实现投资双方共赢。围绕以上问题,论文首先结合国家经济发展战略,从全球价值链、战略性新兴产业、区域经济发展布局等角度剖析国家主权财富基金(SWFs)在微观、中观和宏观三个层面的对外投资选择,并给出了相应的实现机制；其次,详细分析了提高和谐共容性应着重考虑的因素,并给出了与国外成熟的SWFs、跨国公司、东道国政府三种不同投资主体的合作模式,结合合作博弈给出利益分配方案,构建基于动态合作博弈的资产配置模型：第三,基于空间计量模型对SWFs进行对外投资与合作需要考虑的宏观影响要素进行识别,将证券市场指数作为投资对象,验证了投资者在资产配置决策中考虑空间相关性的重要性,建立了各地区股票指数与经济增长、通货膨胀、货币供应量、利率水平、汇率、国际储备、贸易总额之间的空间计量经济模型,从全球视角对影响股票价格指数的宏观影响因素进行实证分析；第四,从中观和微观两个层次给出了投资组合选择,从行业和企业两个层面选择入股国内企业进行积极投资,运用DEA模型对入股企业进行效率评价；最后,给出论文的结论、不足和展望。本文的主要创新之处体现在以下几个方面：(1)提出SWFs对外投资不仅应与国家经济发展战略结合起来,而且要与投资东道国构建一种和谐共容机制；(2)识别和分析除投资收益外的更多共容性增长的经济和社会要素(国内产业需求、对外让渡价值、社会责任和道德约束)等；(3)结合合作联盟思想给出我国SWFs对外投资与合作战略的模式,在兼顾我国SWFs投资收益的同时合理分配和让渡投资价值,搭建透明的合作机制；(4)鉴于我国SWFs不可能具备在各个区域、行业具有专业化的对外投资能力和经验,建立多主体目标优化模型筛选和评估国内企业作为SWFs的投资载体,进而降低SWFs对外投资风险。本研究不仅具有重要的理论意义——丰富和完善SWFs海外投资理论及在全球范围内优化资源配置,而且对提高我国SWFs与东道国的和谐共容性,拓宽海外投资渠道,建立专业化、市场化和多元化的运作机制具有实践指导意义,并从实体经济战略发展的层次支持国内企业对外投资,进而实现国内经济发展。
[Abstract]:Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWFs), as an important investment carrier, is a kind of influential investor in the international financial market. It has received wide attention from scholars both at home and abroad. The sovereign wealth fund is corresponding to private wealth. It is a government that can regenerate the income of natural resources and international income through a specific tax and budget allocation. As the main source of SWFs in China, as of the end of 2011, China's foreign exchange reserves have reached nearly 3 trillion and 200 billion dollars. In order to diversify foreign exchange assets and prevent the shrinking of single dollar assets, our country has transformed the excess foreign exchange reserves into the foreign exchange reserves. The national sovereign wealth fund has been managed. Since the subprime crisis, the international decentralization of foreign exchange reserves and the diversification of assets have gradually accelerated, but the investment losses in Citigroup, Blackstone and other financial institutions affect the investment confidence and investment effectiveness of SWFs.
SWFs, however, represents the will of the country and has a sovereign investment subject. On the one hand, it has the purpose of pursuing the value preserving and value-added business. On the other hand, it needs to serve the state's strategic will and serve the medium and long term strategy of the country. It is because of the government background of the SWFs that many countries have shown high vigilance to it, mainly Two concerns. One is worried that SWFs serves the political purpose, such as the military strategic industry, and the second worries as potential large shareholders to intervene in the global market. As a result, the investment fields and ways of SWFs are greatly restricted. Therefore, how to bypass the various barriers of the host country and reduce the vigilance of the host country is an urgent need to be solved. Problem.
This paper holds that SWFs's foreign strategic investment should not only consider the interests of the host country, but also consider the interests of the host country. It not only analyzes the SWFs investment strategy from the theoretical level, but also takes into account the practicability and executability of the theory, and establishes a complete investment mechanism to promote the implementation of the strategy. This article holds that the foreign investment in SWFs should not only be with the national economy. The development strategy is combined, multi-level, multi-channel and multi path to support the development of domestic industry, especially supporting the development of key domestic economic nodes, key industries and key areas. At the same time, it is necessary to build a Harmonious Co accommodation mechanism with the investment host country, that is to establish a cooperative mechanism to realize the transfer of a part of the investment value to the host country or the host country. Positive economic externalities, so as to achieve win-win cooperation between investors.
According to the above problems, the paper first analyzes the three aspects of the national sovereign wealth fund (SWFs) in the micro, medium and macro aspects of foreign investment choice from the perspective of the global value chain, strategic emerging industries, and the distribution of regional economic development. The factors that should be taken into consideration, and give the cooperation mode with three different investment subjects of foreign mature SWFs, MNCs and host government, and combine the cooperative game to give the benefit allocation scheme and build the asset allocation model based on the dynamic cooperative game: Third, the foreign investment and cooperation based on the spatial econometric model. To identify the macro factors that need to be considered and take the stock market index as an investment object to verify the importance of the investor to consider the spatial correlation in the asset allocation decision, and establish the space between the stock index and economic growth, the inflation, the money supply, the rate of interest, the exchange rate, the international reserve and the total trade. The econometric model is an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic factors affecting the stock price index from a global perspective. Fourth, the portfolio selection is given from the middle and micro levels of two levels, from two levels of industry and enterprises to choose the domestic enterprises to invest actively, and the DEA model is used to evaluate the efficiency of the stock enterprises. After that, the conclusion of the paper is given, and the shortage and prospect are given.
The main innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) it is suggested that the SWFs foreign investment should not only be combined with the national economic development strategy, but also to build a Harmonious Co accommodation mechanism with the investment host country; (2) to identify and analyze the economic and social elements of more common growth except the income of investment (domestic industry demand, External transfer value, social responsibility and moral restraint etc.; (3) combining the thought of cooperative alliance to give the mode of China's SWFs foreign investment and cooperation strategy, to allocate and transfer the value of investment reasonably while taking into account the SWFs investment income of our country, and to build a transparent cooperation mechanism. (4) in view of the possibility that our country SWFs is unlikely to have in the various regions, the industry is specialized. The foreign investment ability and experience of the industry, the establishment of multi-agent objective optimization model screening and evaluation of domestic enterprises as the SWFs investment carrier, and then reduce the risk of SWFs investment.
This study not only has important theoretical significance - to enrich and improve the SWFs overseas investment theory and to optimize the allocation of resources globally, but also to improve the harmonious compatibility between China's SWFs and the host country, to broaden the overseas investment channels, to establish a specialized, market-oriented and diversified operation mechanism, and to carry out the practical guidance from the entity classics. The level of economic strategy development supports the foreign investment of domestic enterprises, and then achieves the domestic economic development.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.48;F224

【参考文献】