农户金融需求影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-04 09:17

本文选题：农户 + 金融需求　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：社会主义“和谐社会”的构建离不开新农村的建设,离不开农村经济的发展。自2008年以来,我国农村经济发展显示了两个新的特点：一是党的十七届三中全会的召开,通过了《中共中央关于推进农村改革发展若干重大问题的决定》,全会《决定》着重关于推进农村改革发展的问题,国家加大了对农村的投资力度,实施了大量的支农、惠农政策,极大地刺激了农民生产的积极性；二是全球金融危机对我国经济的发展也造成了相当大的影响,实体经济受到强烈的冲击,沿海地区大量企业的破产倒闭导致了农民工返乡,并且还出现了农产品价格逐渐下调等问题。当今,“三农”问题始终是政府工作的重点和难点,但当前我国农村金融体系并不能适应农村经济的发展需要,现有的农村金融制度不能够满足农村经济主体的融资需求,农村地区金融的缺位成为农村经济发展的瓶颈。所以研究我国农村金融的发展,就具有重大的理论和现实意义。农户是农村的经济主体,随着农村经济的发展,农户产生了大量的金融需求。我国农村金融市场包括正规金融机构和非正规金融机构,邮储以前只存不贷,贷款业务起步比较晚,目前来看,农信社是农户向正规金融机构贷款的主力军,但由于农信社体制的弊端,导致其为农户提供的金融服务有限,不能很好的满足农户的金融需求,农户的融资行为受到严重抑制。因而,农户更偏好于民间借贷,为了满足生产、生活资金需求,农户更多的借助于农村内部自发产生的金融形式。农户借贷是农村金融的重点和难点,本文试图通过对农户借贷行为的研究,分析农户借贷行为特征进而对农户金融需求影响因素实证分析,从而提出符合我国实际的农村金融发展的政策建议。目前国内外学者对于农村金融的研究非常多,但均以规范分析为主,研究内容主要是从宏观层面探讨目前我国农村金融存在的问题和解决方案,而从微观层而,特别是从农户借贷需求的角度运用微观数据进行实证研究的则不多。因此,本文试图以农户借贷行为作为切入点,全面、准确地分析了农户的金融需求状况并揭示了其影响因素,对于改善农村金融体系具有一定的促进作用。本文以农户借贷行为为基本研究对象,结合农户借贷问卷调查数据,分析了农户特征及金融需求情况,并用Probit模型和Logit模型分别研究了农户金融需求的影响因素。分析表明：我国农户具有广泛的金融需求,虽然农信社是农户愿意向正规金融机构贷款的首选机构,但是从正规金融机构获得贷款的比例较低,农户更偏好于民间借贷。我国农村金融市场仍然存在着严重的信贷约束,供给型信贷约束与需求型信贷约束并存,而且农户受到需求型信贷约束明显比供给型信贷约束程度深。我国农户的基本条件限制了农户金融借贷资金的额度和期限,农户金融需求具有“短小”的特点,农信社开展的小额信贷将金在很大程度上帮助农民摆脱资金困境,有力地支持农村经济的发展。农户贷款的原因直接反映在其贷款用途上,贷款用途又能反映农户的资金需求强度,我国农户信贷资金用于消费的比重明显高于用于生产的比重,这和众多已有的研究结论是相吻合的。本文运用Stata软件对计量模型中家庭常住人口、学生人数、男性人数、外出务工人数、劳动力平均年龄、劳动力最高受教育程度、家庭经营的耕地面积、家庭收入、家庭收入来源、小额信贷、信用评级、正规金融机构业务网点和民间金融机构等变量进行了回归,对于Probit和Logit模型回归结果,对比统一得出对农户金融需求具有显著性影响的因素,其中男性人数、在校学生人数、耕地面积、农业收入来源、信用评级、民间金融等因素对农户金融需求具有正向的显著影响,而家庭总收入、非农行业、正规金融机构网点等对农户金融需求具有显著的负向影响,对于所作研究进行分析总结,同时根据分析结果和所得结论从国家政策、金融机构、农户自身三个层面提出相应的政策建议,从而促进和完善我国农村金融体系的发展,更进一步发挥农村金融体系在服务“三农”等方面的作用。本文共分六章,第一章是前言,主要介绍本文的选题背景、研究目的及意义、研究思路、研究方法、研究框架以及可能的创新点和不足之处,试图让读者对本文的研究有一个宏观的了解。第二章主要介绍了国内外学者对农村金融的研究动态,包括关于农户经济行为的一些理论、农户信贷需求相关方面的研究文献,这些文献的研究对本文的选题和研究思路有很大的启示,也对本人了解农村金融发展历史及现状有了宏观的认识。第三章主要是对农户特征与金融需求关系的描述性统计分析,通过对调研数据进行初步分析,可能影响农户金融需求的因素包括：家庭常住人口、在校学生、农户年龄、农户文化程度、农户从事的经济活动类型、农户收入水平以及收入来源。第四章主要是对农户金融需求特征进行分析,运用描述性统计方法分析了农户的金融需求情况。第五章是实证研究部分,本文把“金融需求”作为因变量,对于第三章和第四章分析的可能影响农户金融需求的因素作为控制变量,运用Stata软件对Probit模型和Logit模型分别回归,对比统一得出对农户金融需求具有显著性影响的因素,并对计量结果进行分析。第六章为结论和建议,总结了本文的研究结论,并针对全文的研究结论对现有农村金融的发展提出一些具体的政策建议,希望有所帮助。本文的主要观点是：我国所有有关农村金融的制度创新都应考虑农户自身特点及其行为特征,虽然我国农村金融体系处于不断的改革和发展中,但是依旧存在着许多问题,这就意味着对我国农户金融需求影响因素的研究具有重要的现实意义。在回顾前人相关文献的基础上,本文以农户行为作为出发点,运用统计性描述分析农户的特征及金融需求情况,通过实证研究分析影响农户金融需求的因素,并提出促进和完善我国农村金融发展的相关政策建议,从而更进一步发挥农村金融体系在服务“三农”等方面的作用。本文可能的创新之处包括以下几方面： 1.以实际调查数据为依据,在大样本下进行实证分析。本文所用数据来源于对2006年全国10个省20040个农户进行的农户金融需求调查。纵观众多研究农户借贷行为、农村金融体系的文献,仅有少数学者(如：李锐、李宁辉(2004)；金烨、李宏彬(2009)；钱水土、陆金(2008)；何广文(1999)等)以实际调查数据为依据进行实证分析,多数学者仅停留在理论分析或者采用宏观数据进行分析的层面。另外,虽然有学者也是采用农村金融的调查问卷进行分析研究,但是,无论从其调查地区的覆盖率还是样本数量来说都远远不及本文。 2.更加准确地描述农户的特征及融资行为。本文运用描述性统计分析了农户特征与金融需求的关系、融资渠道的选择、融资的数量和期限、借款用途等等。通过对各个变量详尽的分析更加准确地描述了农户的融资行为,让读者对农户融资特征有一个更加直观的印象。 3.运用Stata软件分别对Probit模型和Logit模型进行回归,对比统一得出对农户金融需求的显著性影响因素。
[Abstract]:The construction of the socialist "harmonious society" can not be separated from the construction of the new countryside without the development of the rural economy. Since 2008, the development of our country's rural economy has shown two new characteristics: first, the party's the third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee convening, the central Committee of the Communist Party of China on several major issues of promoting the reform and development of rural villages, the plenary session < Decision > focuses on the problem of promoting rural reform and development. The state has increased its investment in rural areas, carried out a large number of supporting agriculture and benefiting farmers' policies, which greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers. Two, the global financial crisis has also caused considerable impact on the economic development of our country. The real economy has been strongly impacted by the real economy and coastal areas. The bankruptcy and bankruptcy of a large number of enterprises in the region have led to the return of migrant workers, and the prices of agricultural products have been reduced gradually. Nowadays, the problem of "three rural" is always the key and difficult point of government work. However, the current rural financial system can not meet the needs of the development of the rural economy, and the existing rural financial system can not meet the rural areas. The financing demand of the economic subject, the lack of financial in the rural areas has become the bottleneck of the rural economic development. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the development of rural finance in China.
Farmers are the economic main body of rural areas. With the development of rural economy, farmers have produced a large number of financial needs. The rural financial market in China includes regular financial institutions and informal financial institutions. The postal storage is not used before, and the loan business started relatively late. At present, the rural credit cooperatives are the main force of farmers' loans to the regular financial institutions, but the rural credit cooperatives are the main force of the loans to the regular financial institutions. The malpractice of the system of rural credit cooperatives leads to the limited financial services provided by the farmers, which can not meet the financial needs of the farmers well, and the financing behavior of the farmers is severely restrained. Therefore, the farmers prefer to borrow from the folk. In order to meet the demand of production and living funds, the farmers are more able to use the financial forms spontaneously produced within the rural areas. The loan of peasant households is the key and difficult point of rural finance. This paper tries to make an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the financial demand of farmers through the study of the behavior of farmers' borrowing and lending, so as to put forward the policy suggestions for the development of rural finance in accordance with the actual situation of our country.
At present, scholars at home and abroad have a lot of research on rural finance, but they are mainly based on normative analysis. The main research content is to discuss the existing problems and solutions of rural finance in China from the macro level. This paper attempts to take the behavior of farmers' lending as a breakthrough point, comprehensively and accurately analyzes the financial demand of farmers and reveals its influencing factors, which has a certain role in improving the rural financial system.
This paper, taking the behavior of farmers' borrowing and lending as the basic research object, combined with the survey data of farmers' borrowing and lending, analyzed the characteristics of farmers and the financial demand, and studied the influence factors of farmers' financial demand with Probit model and Logit model respectively. The loan of regular financial institutions is the first choice, but the proportion of loans obtained from the regular financial institutions is low, and the farmers prefer the private lending. There are still serious credit constraints in the rural financial market in China. The supply type credit constraints coexist with the demand type credit constraints, and the farmers' demand based credit constraints are obviously more than the supply type credit. The basic conditions of the loans are limited. The basic conditions of the farmers in our country restrict the amount and duration of the financial lending funds of the farmers. The farmers' financial demand has the characteristics of "short". The micro credit carried out by the rural credit cooperatives will help farmers to get rid of the financial difficulties to a great extent and strongly support the development of the rural economy. The reasons for the farmers' loans are directly reflected. In the use of the loan, the use of the loan can reflect the intensity of the farmers' capital demand, and the proportion of the credit funds used in the consumption is obviously higher than that used in the production. This is in agreement with many existing research conclusions. This paper uses the Stata software to make the household permanent population, the number of students, the number of men, and the outgoing affairs in the measurement model. The number of workers, the average age of the labor force, the highest education level of the labor force, the area of the cultivated land, the family income, the source of family income, the micro credit, the credit rating, the business outlets of the regular financial institutions and the non-governmental financial institutions were regressive. For the regression results of the Probit and the Logit models, the farmers' finance was compared and unified. The factors such as the number of men, the number of students in school, the area of cultivated land, the source of agricultural income, the credit rating and the folk finance have a positive and significant influence on the financial demand of farmers, while the total family income, non-agricultural industry and the formal financial network network have a significant negative impact on the financial demand of farmers. On the basis of the analysis and summary of the research, according to the results of the analysis and the conclusions from the three aspects of the national policy, financial institutions and farmers themselves, the corresponding policy proposals are put forward to promote and improve the development of the rural financial system in China, and further play the role of the rural financial system in serving "three rural" and so on.
This article is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the preface. It mainly introduces the background of the topic, the purpose and significance of the research, the research ideas, the research methods, the research framework and the possible innovation points and shortcomings, trying to make the readers have a macro understanding of this study.
The second chapter mainly introduces the research trends of the domestic and foreign scholars on rural finance, including some theories about farmers' economic behavior, and the literature on the related aspects of farmers' credit demand. The research of these literature has great inspiration to the topic and research ideas of this article, and also has a macro understanding of the history and status of rural financial development. Understanding.
The third chapter is mainly a descriptive statistical analysis of the relationship between farmers' characteristics and financial needs. Through the preliminary analysis of the survey data, the factors that may affect the farmers' financial demand include the family resident population, the school students, the farmers' age, the peasant household's cultural degree, the type of economic activities that the farmers engage in, the income level and the income of the farmers. Source.
The fourth chapter mainly analyzes the characteristics of farmers' financial demand, and applies descriptive statistics to analyze the financial needs of farmers.
The fifth chapter is an empirical study. This paper takes "financial demand" as a dependent variable, as a control variable for the factors that may affect farmers' financial demand in the third and fourth chapters, and uses Stata software to return to the Probit model and the Logit model respectively, and compares the factors that have significant influence on the financial demand of farmers. And the measurement results are analyzed.
The sixth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion, summarizes the conclusions of this study, and puts forward some specific policy suggestions for the development of rural finance in the full text, hoping to help.
The main point of this paper is that all the institutional innovations related to rural finance in China should take into account the characteristics of farmers themselves and their behavior characteristics. Although the rural financial system in China is in constant reform and development, there are still many problems, which means that the research on the factors affecting the financial demand of farmers in China is of great importance. On the basis of reviewing the relevant literature of the predecessors, this paper, taking the behavior of farmers as the starting point, uses a statistical description to analyze the characteristics of farmers and the financial demand, analyses the factors that affect the financial demand of farmers through empirical research, and puts forward some relevant policy suggestions to promote and improve the financial development of agricultural villages in China, so as to make more progress. We should give full play to the role of the rural financial system in serving the "three rural issues".
The possible innovations of this paper include the following aspects:
1. based on the actual survey data, the empirical analysis is carried out under the large sample. The data used in this paper is derived from the survey of farmers' financial needs of 20040 farmers in 10 provinces in 2006. A large number of studies on the behavior of farmers' lending and the literature of the rural financial system have only a few scholars (such as Li Rui, Li Ninghui (2004); Jin Ye, Li Hongbin (2) " 009): Qian and water, Lu Jin (2008); He Guangwen (1999), etc. based on the actual survey data for empirical analysis, most scholars only stay in the theoretical analysis or the use of macro data analysis level. In addition, although some scholars also use the rural financial questionnaire to analyze, however, no matter from the area of its investigation. Cover rate or sample size is far less than this article.
2. a more accurate description of the characteristics and financing behavior of farmers. This paper uses descriptive statistics to analyze the relationship between farmers' characteristics and financial needs, the choice of financing channels, the number and duration of financing, the use of loans and so on. Through detailed analysis of the various variables, the financing behavior of farmers is described more accurately, and the readers can finance the farmers. Features have a more intuitive impression.
3. use Stata software to regression Probit model and Logit model respectively, and draw a significant correlation factor for farmers' financial needs.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.35;F224

【参考文献】