区制转移形式的“泰勒规则”及其在中国货币政策中的应用

发布时间：2018-05-05 02:12

本文选题：泰勒规则 + 区制转移　；参考：《经济研究》2010年03期

【摘要】：传统"泰勒规则"的线性设定具有一定的局限性,由于宏观经济背景和政策作用时间不同,货币政策规则可能是一种非线性系统。本文将"泰勒规则"扩展为一种具有时变通胀目标的区制转移"泰勒规则"模型,并运用该模型对中国1992—2009年的货币政策反应方式进行实证研究。结果表明,我国货币政策规则具有明显的区制转移特征,不同区制反映了利率对通胀和实际产出的不同政策反应关系;在区制2,政策规则表现为一个稳定的"泰勒规则",利率调整的方向与通胀和实际产出变动方向基本一致;而在区制1,利率对通货膨胀缺口和实际产出缺口不敏感,是一种不稳定的结构;结合我国货币政策操作的特点,可以将我国货币政策规则划分为"惰性"和"活性"两个区域。
[Abstract]:The linear setting of the traditional "Taylor rule" has certain limitations. The monetary policy rule may be a nonlinear system because of the different macroeconomic background and policy action time. This paper extends the "Taylor rule" into a "Taylor rule" model with a time-varying inflation target, and uses this model for China 1992 to 2009. The results show that China's monetary policy rules have obvious characteristics of regional system transfer, and the different regional system reflects the different policy response relations between interest rate and inflation and actual output; in district system 2, the policy rules show a stable "Taylor rule", the direction of interest rate adjustment and inflation and reality. The changing direction of the InterWorld output is basically the same. In the district system 1, the interest rate is not sensitive to the inflation gap and the actual output gap. It is an unstable structure. According to the characteristics of our monetary policy operation, China's monetary policy rules can be divided into two areas of "inertia" and "activity".

【作者单位】：厦门大学王亚南经济研究院;吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(70971055) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大课题(2007JJD790125) 教育部“国际金融危机应对研究”应急课题(2009JYJR014) 厦门大学引进人才科研启动基金项目资助
【分类号】：F224;F822.0

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