中国房地产金融风险控制研究：1998-2011

发布时间：2018-05-06 16:17

本文选题：房地产 + 金融风险　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：1998年,我国开始实行住房商品化改革,经过十几年的快速发展,中国房地产业呈现出过热势头。2010年年初,中央政府开始了新一轮严厉的房地产调控,我国的房地产金融市场隐藏着重大的风险隐患,因而对当前中国房地产金融风险进行影响因素的分析显得十分必要,针对性地采取积极措施防范和控制房地产融资风险已是迫在眉睫。我国房地产金融风险的影响因素是多方面的,多种因素共同作用加大中国房地产金融风险爆发的可能。本文从主要参与机构——商业银行与房地产开发商的行为、房地产市场运行及房地产政策调控等相关因素出发,采取市场定量分析方法探寻商业性房地产贷款余额、商业银行不良贷款余额、开发企业各项筹资方式(国内贷款；企业自筹资金；其他资金来源)、房地产市场相关因素(房地产开发投资额；商品房施工面积；商品房竣工面积；商品房销售面积和商品房销售均价)等主要指标对中国房地产金融风险的影响。本文主要对房地产金融风险与市场因素指标、房地产金融风险与房企开发资金来源指标之间作了两两相关,研究发现：(1)商业银行不良贷款余额与市场因素指标(房地产开发投资额,商品房施工面积,商品房竣工面积,商品房销售面积和商品房销售均价)均呈现显著性负相关,而商业性房地产贷款余额与与市场因素指标均呈现显著性正相关。(2)商业银行不良贷款余额与房企房地产开发资金来源指标(国内贷款,企业自筹资金和其他资金来源)均呈现显著性负相关；而商业性房地产贷款余额与房地产开发资金来源指标均呈现显著性正相关。为了进一步考察各类相关性因素对房地产金融风险的影响力,采用逐步回归加以验证,结果表明：商品房销售均价和其他资金来源对商业银行不良贷款余额影响力较大,尤其是商品房销售均价。如果受政策调控影响,商品房销售均价进入下行通道,商业银行不良贷款余额随之增加,而房地产企业对于房地产信托资金及民间资本的资金依赖也同样会使得商业银行不良贷款余额增加,最终可能导致房地产金融风险的暴露。而商品房施工面积对商业性房地产贷款余额有着决定性影响。我们需密切关注这些指标因素的变化,从这些指标入手,对中国房地产金融风险加以防范和控制。
[Abstract]:In 1998, China began to implement housing commercialization reform. After more than ten years of rapid development, China's real estate industry showed a tendency of overheating. At the beginning of 2010, the central government began a new round of strict real estate regulation and control. The real estate financial market of our country has hidden great hidden risks, so it is very necessary to analyze the influencing factors of the real estate financial risks in China at present. It is urgent to take active measures to prevent and control the risk of real estate financing. The influencing factors of real estate financial risk in our country are many aspects, and many factors act together to increase the possibility of the outbreak of real estate financial risk in China. Based on the related factors such as the behavior of commercial banks and real estate developers, the operation of real estate market and the regulation of real estate policies, this paper adopts the method of market quantitative analysis to explore the balance of commercial real estate loans. The balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks, the development of various financing methods of enterprises (domestic loans; self-financing of enterprises; other sources of funds, real estate market related factors (real estate development investment; commercial housing construction area; completed area of commercial housing; The impact of the main indexes, such as the area of commercial housing and the average price of commercial housing, on the financial risk of real estate in China. This paper mainly deals with the financial risk of real estate and the index of market factors, the financial risk of real estate and the index of the source of capital for the development of the real estate enterprise. It is found that the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks is negatively correlated with market factors (real estate development investment, construction area of commercial housing, completed area of commercial housing, sale area of commercial house and average price of commercial house). The commercial real estate loan balance and market factor indicators are significantly positive correlation. 2) commercial bank non-performing loan balance and real estate development capital source indicators (domestic loans, There was a significant negative correlation between the commercial real estate loan balance and the real estate development fund source index, and there was a significant positive correlation between the commercial real estate loan balance and the real estate development fund source index. In order to further investigate the influence of various related factors on the real estate financial risk, it is verified by stepwise regression. The results show that the average price of commercial housing sales and other sources of funds have great influence on the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks. In particular, the average price of commercial housing sales. If, under the influence of policy regulation, the average price of commercial housing sales enters the downward channel, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks will increase accordingly. The capital dependence of real estate enterprises on real estate trust funds and private capital will also increase the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks, which may eventually lead to the exposure of real estate financial risks. And commercial housing construction area to commercial real estate loan balance has a decisive impact. We need to pay close attention to the change of these index factors, starting with these indicators, to prevent and control the real estate financial risks in China.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F299.23;F832

【参考文献】