FDI规模影响我国通货膨胀的传导机制及其效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 17:12

本文选题：外商直接投资 + 通货膨胀　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：自从改革开放以来,确立了吸引外商直接投资来带动中国经济发展的方针,外商直接投资在华规模、质量和涉及的领域都不断扩大。外商直接投资事实上也确实为中国的经济增长做出了一定的贡献。改革开放30多年来,中国利用外商直接投资也得到了快速发展。纵观这三十多年,外商直接投资的增长也是阶段性的,分别在1984-1988年、1991-1997年以及2007-2008年呈现明显的快速增长。而中国的通货膨胀也出现了明显的周期性,分别在1985年-1989年、1992-1997年以及2007-2008年出现了明显的通货膨胀。具体来说,第一次通货膨胀的顶峰是1988年,居民消费价格指数达到了18.8%这样的高水平,而在1985年和1986年的时候外商直接投资的年均增长率超过了100%；第二次通货膨胀的顶峰是在1994年,居民消费价格指数一度到了24.1%这样的历史最高峰,不得不提1993年外商直接投资的增长率为149.95%；2007年以后,外商直接投资的增速顶峰在2007年和2008年,增长率分别为17%和22%,与此同时,居民消费价格水平在2008年2月份达到了8.7%,创11年新高,其全年的居民消费价格指数为105.9。可见,外商直接投资和我国的通货膨胀有着较强的联系。本文着重研究了外商直接投资和通货膨胀的内在联系,对外商直接投资影响通货膨胀的内资机制进行了深入研究,发现外商直接投资会通过货币供应量渠道、国内投资渠道、国际贸易渠道、汇率渠道以及劳动者报酬渠道等途径影响通货膨胀。第一,外商直接投资会通过出口和进口替代以及再投资等活动会间接增加外汇储备。在现行外汇制度下,中央银行购买外汇要投入大量的货币,形成外汇占款,导致基础货币增加,再通过货币乘数效应就会使货币供应量成倍增加,对通货膨胀产生压力。第二,外商直接投资的流入会造成我国投资增加。这是由于外商直接投资要转化为生产力,需要国内与之配套的投资。外商直接投资带动了相关产业的投资扩张,从而推动了总需求的增加,进一步导致国内物价水平的上升。第三,外商直接投资相关的设备、技术和原材料等的进口直接影响东道国的国际贸易。目前我国的实际情况下,随着国际贸易规模的不断扩大,我国的贸易顺差也在不断扩大,从而通过外汇储备渠道,影响我国的通货膨胀。另外国际贸易会通过价格机制传导通货膨胀。第四,外商直接投资导致我国人民币升值。汇率的提高再推高资产价格的同时,也提高了人们价格上涨的预期,这也加剧了我国通货膨胀的压力。第五,外商直接投资引起我国工资的上升。工资的提高增加了总需求以及企业的生产成本,这将会引起我国的通货膨胀。为了检验外商直接投资对通货膨胀的理论分析正确与否,我们通过建立误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法,得出以下结论：FDI是影响通货膨胀最重要的因素,它和货币供应量、固定资产投资一起对通货膨胀起正向的促进作用,而进出口总额起抑制通货膨胀作用;FDI对通货膨胀具有明显的滞后效应。最后本文通过优化国内投资环境、加强对外商直接投资的引导、深化外汇体质改革来缓解外商直接投资对通货膨胀的压力。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up , China has established a policy to attract foreign direct investment to drive China ' s economic development . Foreign direct investment ( FDI ) has been expanding rapidly in China ' s scale , quality and related fields . In the past 30 years , China ' s direct investment has also been rapidly growing .
The peak of the second inflation was in 1994 the consumer price index reached the highest peak of 24.1 per cent , and had to mention that the growth rate of foreign direct investment in 1993 was 149.95 per cent ;
After 2007 , the peak of growth of foreign direct investment was 17 % and 22 % in 2007 and 2008 respectively . At the same time , the consumer price level reached 8.7 % in February 2008 , and the consumer price index in the whole year was 105.9 . It can be seen that foreign direct investment and inflation in our country have stronger ties .

In this paper , the internal relations of foreign direct investment and inflation and the mechanism of foreign direct investment ( FDI ) on inflation are studied in this paper . It is found that foreign direct investment can affect inflation through money supply channel , domestic investment channel , international trade channel , exchange rate channel and labor compensation channel .

First , foreign direct investment will indirectly increase foreign exchange reserves through such activities as export and import substitution and re - investment . Under the current foreign exchange system , the central bank purchases foreign exchange to invest a large amount of money to form foreign exchange occupation , which leads to an increase in the base currency , and the monetary multiplier effect increases the money supply volume and exerts pressure on inflation .

Second , the inflow of foreign direct investment will increase the investment of our country . This is because foreign direct investment is to be converted into productive forces , and domestic and domestic investment is required . Foreign direct investment drives investment expansion of the relevant industries , thus promoting the increase of total demand and further causing the rise of domestic price level .

Third , the import of equipment , technology and raw materials related to foreign direct investment directly affects the international trade of the host country . At present , with the expansion of the international trade scale , our country ' s trade surplus is expanding constantly , so that through the foreign exchange reserve channel , the inflation of our country is affected . In addition , the international trade will conduct inflation through the price mechanism .

Fourth , foreign direct investment has led to RMB appreciation of our country . The increase of exchange rate pushes high asset prices , and also increases the expectation of higher prices , which has also contributed to the inflationary pressure in our country .

Fifth , foreign direct investment causes the rise of wages in our country . The increase of wages increases the total demand and the production cost of the enterprise , which will cause inflation in our country .

In order to verify the correctness of the theory analysis of foreign direct investment on inflation , we draw the conclusion that FDI is the most important factor which affects inflation , and it plays a positive role in inflation with money supply and fixed asset investment , while the total import and export volume plays an important role in inhibiting inflation ; FDI has a clear lag effect on inflation .

Finally , through optimizing domestic investment environment , strengthening the direct investment of foreign direct investment , deepening the reform of foreign exchange constitution to alleviate the pressure of foreign direct investment on inflation .

【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.5;F832.6

【参考文献】