我国非正规金融与货币政策相关性研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 10:36

本文选题：非正规金融 + 货币政策　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着各地民间借贷危机的密集爆发,非正规金融被推到了风口浪尖上,非正规金融的合法化也又一次被提上议程。所谓非正规金融,从行政审批的角度上来说,是指那些没有经过中央政府批准从而处于政府监管之外的金融活动和金融机构,随着经济的不断发展,这一概念如今还包括了那些由正规金融机构所主导和从事的不正规金融活动。传统的理论认为非正规金融是在金融抑制中萌芽的,发展中国家的金融抑制导致正规金融市场总是供给不足,由此产生了资金缺口；此外,在中国长期的二元经济体制’下,金融资源的投放带有很强的政策导向,以至于农村经济和个体民营经济很难获得来源于正规金融机构的资金。正是在这种背景下,产生一个不同于正规金融市场的、能够满足多余资金需求的非金融市场,从而在中国形成了正规金融与非正规金融并存的二元金融体制。与正规金融相比,非正规金融更加善于处理贷款中的“软信息”,因此,在一定范围内,非正规金融市场能够有效克服道德风险,实现较低的边际贷款成本。此外,非正规金融市场还能够吸收社会闲散资金,来满足借款人急迫的资金需求,从而达到有效配置社会资源的作用。但是,我们也看到,一方面,随着参与主体范围的扩大,非正规金融在克服道德风险上的优势会而逐渐消失；另一方面,由于非正规金融市场高收益回报的诱惑,越来越多的人参与到非正规金融活动中,从而资金链逐渐被拉长,以至于在监管缺失的情况下,造成非正规金融市场的各种风险的累积,这些风险随着非正规金融与正规金融的相互渗透而进入到正规金融体系,给金融的稳定带来巨大的潜在威胁,这也正是众多学者呼吁让非正规金融合法化的原因。鉴于非正规金融存在潜在风险,本文创作的目的正是要研究政府能否通过实施货币政策对非正规金融市场进行调控?而非正规金融又能对货币政策带来怎样的影响?更重要的是在非正规金融与货币政策可能存在的关联下思考非正规金融是否应当合法化?在合法化呼声越来越高的今天是否还存在一些现实问题使得合法化不能顺利推进?而如果存在这些问题,又能有什么样的对策? 在结构上,本文共分为六部分。第一部分导论主要交代了非正规金融的一些背景,同时从存在性,利率研究和与宏观经济相关性三方面出发对非正规金融的相关文献作了大致的回顾,另外,本章还阐明了创作的意图和将要使用的方法。本文第二部分对非正规金融的内涵作出了界定,明确了本文所讨论的非正规金融范围,同时对常见的几种非正规金融组织形式进行了描述；另外,在这一部分,本文总结了非正规金融产生的理论逻辑并对个别理论进行了评价。第三部分是关于我国非正规金融发展路径的论述,这部分主要回顾了我国非正规金融组织形式的发展并以直观简明的图表形式展示了该过程。另外,这部分还对最近我国非正规金融出现的新的趋势作了论述,认为非正规金融由于资金流向趋于投机化、参与主体越来越多元化而累积了许多潜在的风险。在第四部分,本文重点研究了货币政策对我国非正规金融的影响。该部分的研究从逻辑上来说有两层,一层是说明在发展中国家普遍存在的利率管制下,正规金融市场总会产生资金缺口,从而导致了非正规金融市场的高利率；另一层是说明在这种资金缺口下,考虑正规金融市场可能存在寻租行为,那么当正规金融和非正规金融同时存在时,借款人选择在哪个金融市场上融资取决于正规金融市场融资成本和非正规金融市场融资成本的比较,此时,正规金融利率与非正规金融利率间存在一个理论上的关系,在此关系之下,无论货币政策趋紧或是趋松,正规金融市场利率与非正规金融市场利率间总是存在着同向变动的趋势,只不过变动的程度有差异。第五部分是我国非正规金融对货币政策影响的分析及实证研究。在对相关文献进行回顾的基础上,本文从以下三个方面完成了该部分的研究：一是考虑了一个在非正规金融存在下的货币供给模型,通过分析说明了在一定范围内,非正规金融的存在能够使得实际的货币乘数变大,在基础货币不变的情况下,增加社会实际货币供给量,反映出非正规金融市场可能具备一定的货币创造功能,此外,本文还从理论上分析了非正规金融的存在可能会影响货币流通速度以及干扰货币政策指向性；二是运用收入支出法对非正规金融信贷额进行了估算并就估算结果作出了分析,结果表明,估算出的非正规金融信贷规模远远低于正规金融信贷规模,此外,本文还结合宏观经济形势的变化,对这一估算的非正规金融信贷额的变化进行了分析,发现非正规金融信贷规模的大小可以从侧面反映出宏观经济形势的变化；三是利用估算出的非正规金融信贷额对广义货币M2做了实证分析,实证的思路是分别建立以广义货币M2为被解释变量,以正规金融信贷额为解释变量的计量经济模型和以广义货币M2为被解释变量,以正规及非正规金融信贷总额为解释变量的计量经济模型,而后通过分析这两个模型的系数变化,判断非正规金融对M2进而对货币政策的影响。在实证的过程中,为了消除异方差,首先对这三个变量取对数,接着依次做了平稳性检验,协整并建立了两个具有长期均衡关系的回归模型及各自的误差修正模型。本文通过观察这两个回归模型的变量系数,发现非正规金融信贷额对广义货币M2仅产生了微小的正的影响,因此可以粗略认为非正规金融信贷额对M2的影响并没有反映到M2的统计中；此外,本文对这部分微小的正的影响也做出了解释,得出非正规金融的资金有一小部分来自于正规金融的结论,并就该结论辅以了相关数据支持。结合前文的理论分析,综上,非正规金融既能扩大货币供给但又不易被观察的特质会给宏观经济的平稳运行带来一定的影响,亦不利于货币政策的实施。在第六部分中,本文通过以上理论和实证分析,明确了非正规金融与货币政策间的相互关联,故本文认为,从保持经济活力,维持金融稳定的角度出发,非正规金融应该被合法化。鉴于此,本文进一步分析了目前非正规金融合法化仍面临的现实困境是金融体制的长期垄断性和立法细则难以达成共识。在未来非正规金融合法化的道路上,本文提出了一点拙见,即认为非正规金融的合法一方面需要制定专门的法律,另一方面需要有发挥最终贷款人作用的存款保险机构为非正规金融的稳定发展保驾护航。通过六个部分的论述,本文得出的观点是：货币政策影响非正规金融市场利率,而非正规金融能够扩大货币供给但这种影响无法反映在M2的统计中,从而抑制了以货币供给量为中介目标的货币政策的实施,因此,非正规金融寻求合法化道路。本文的创作主要有以下三方面特点：一是本文通过理论模型得出非正规金融与货币政策间存在相互影响的关系；其次,本文在对非正规金融规模估算的过程中,运用了现有文献中较少用到的收入支出法,并对估算过程作了详细的说明,在此基础上,将非正规金融信贷规模的估算扩展到了2009年；最后,本文运用计量检验的方法实证了非正规金融对货币供给量进而对货币政策的影响,在选取M2作为被解释变量的基础上,构造了两个具有长期均衡关系的回归模型,通过比较这两个模型的系数得出非正规金融对货币供给量的影响在M2的统计数据中得到体现的结论,说明非正规金融使货币政策的效果难以被控制。当然,本文的创作也存在一些不足。首先本文在估算非正规金融信贷规模时,由于原始数据的缺乏,没能估算出近两年的非正规金融信贷规模,同时,由于估算方法的缺陷,可能导致了估算结果偏小；再者,本文进行实证时,仅仅选取了信贷规模作为解释变量,没有考虑其他因素对广义货币的影响,可能使得模型的结果不够精准。这些也正是论文本身今后还需努力的地方。
[Abstract]:With the dense outbreak of private lending crises, informal finance has been pushed to the tip of the storm, and the legalization of informal finance has been put on the agenda again. The so-called informal finance, from the perspective of administrative approval, refers to financial and financial machines that have not been approved by the central government and are outside government supervision. With the continuous development of the economy, the concept also includes informal financial activities dominated by formal financial institutions.
The traditional theory holds that informal finance is in the bud of financial restraining. The financial restraining of the developing countries leads to the shortage of the regular financial market, which leads to the shortage of funds. In addition, under the long-term two yuan economic system in China, the investment of financial resources has a strong policy orientation so that the rural economy and the individual are the individual. It is very difficult for the private economy to obtain funds from the regular financial institutions. It is in this context that a non-financial market, which is different from the regular financial market, can meet the needs of excess funds, has formed a two yuan financial system that coexists between regular finance and informal finance in China.
Compared with regular finance, informal finance is better at dealing with "soft information" in loans. Therefore, in a certain range, the informal financial market can effectively overcome the moral risk and achieve a lower marginal loan cost. In addition, the informal financial market can also absorb the idle funds to meet the urgent needs of the borrowers. In order to achieve the effective allocation of social resources, we also see that, on the one hand, with the expansion of the scope of participation, the advantages of informal finance in overcoming moral risks will gradually disappear; on the other hand, more and more people are involved in informal financial activities due to the temptation of high return on non formal financial markets. Therefore, the capital chain is gradually lengthened so that under the absence of supervision, the risk of the informal financial market is accumulated. These risks enter into the formal financial system with the mutual infiltration of informal finance and regular finance, and bring huge potential threat to the stability of the finance. The reasons for the integration of the rules of the rules.
In view of the potential risks of informal finance, the purpose of this article is to study whether the government can regulate the informal financial market through the implementation of monetary policy, and how does the informal finance affect the monetary policy? More importantly, it is not formal to think about the possible relationship between the informal finance and the currency policy. Should finance be legalized? Is there some realistic problems in today's legitimization calls for legalization that can not be promoted smoothly? And if these problems exist, what kind of countermeasures can there be?
In structure, this article is divided into six parts. The first part introduces some background of informal finance, and gives a general review of the related literature of informal finance from three aspects of existence, interest rate research and macroeconomic correlation. In addition, this chapter also clarifies the intention of the creation and the methods to be used.
The second part of this paper defines the connotation of informal finance, clarifies the informal financial scope discussed in this article, and describes the forms of several common informal financial organizations. In addition, in this part, this paper summarizes the theoretical logic of the informal finance and evaluates the individual theories.
The third part is about the informal financial development path of our country. This part mainly reviews the development of the informal financial organization in our country and shows the process in the form of intuitive and concise chart. In addition, this part also discusses the new trend of the recent informal finance in our country, and thinks that the informal finance is due to the funds. The flow tends to be opportunistic, and the participants are more and more diversified, which has accumulated many potential risks.
In the fourth part, this paper focuses on the impact of monetary policy on China's informal finance. This part of the study has two layers of logic, one is that under the prevailing interest rate control in developing countries, the formal financial market will produce a capital gap, thus leading to the high interest rate in the informal financial market; the other is the other. It shows that there may be rent-seeking behavior in the formal financial market under this financial gap, so when the regular finance and the informal finance exist simultaneously, the borrower's choice in which financial market depends on the comparison between the financing cost of the regular financial market and the financing cost of the informal financial market. At this time, the formal financial interest rate and the non positive financial market are not positive. There is a theoretical relationship between the regulatory financial interest rate, and under this relationship, no matter the tightening or loosening of monetary policy, there is always a trend of the same change between the interest rate of regular financial market and the interest rate of the informal financial market, but the degree of change is different.
The fifth part is the analysis and Empirical Study of the influence of Informal Finance on monetary policy in China. On the basis of reviewing related literature, this paper has completed the research from the following three aspects: first, it considers a model of money supply in the presence of informal finance, and shows that in a certain range, it is not positive. The existence of regular finance can make the actual monetary multiplier become larger, and increase the actual money supply of the society under the condition of the basic currency, which reflects that the informal financial market may have certain monetary creation function. In addition, this paper also theoretically analyses the existence of irregular gold melting in theory. The directivity of monetary policy is disturbed; two is the use of income expenditure method to estimate the amount of informal financial credit and analyze the results of the estimate. The results show that the estimated size of the informal financial credit is far below the scale of the regular financial credit. In addition, this paper also combines the changes in the macroeconomic situation to the informal gold of this estimate. The changes in the amount of credit credit are analyzed, and the size of the informal financial credit can be reflected from the side of the macroeconomic situation. Three, the empirical analysis of the generalized currency M2 is made by using the estimated amount of informal financial credit. The empirical idea is to establish the generalized currency M2 as the explanatory variable and the formal finance. The econometric model of the amount of credit is the explanatory variable and the econometric model which takes the M2 as the explanatory variable and the formal and informal financial credit as the explanatory variable. Then by analyzing the change of the coefficient of the two models, the influence of the informal finance on the policy of M2 to the currency is judged. In addition to the heteroscedasticity, the logarithm of the three variables is first taken, then the stability test is done in turn, and two regression models with long-term equilibrium relations and their respective error correction models are co integrated and established.
By observing the variable coefficients of the two regression models, this paper finds that the amount of informal financial credit has only a slight positive effect on the generalized monetary M2, so it can be roughly considered that the effect of the informal financial credit on the M2 is not reflected in the statistics of M2; moreover, the small positive impact of this part is also explained. It is concluded that a small part of informal finance comes from the conclusion of formal finance, and the conclusion is supported by relevant data. In combination with the previous theoretical analysis, the characteristics of informal finance which can not only expand the supply of money but are not easily observed will bring a certain impact on the smooth operation of the macro-economy, and it is also not conducive to the monetary policy. The implementation of the policy.
In the sixth part, through the above theory and empirical analysis, the interrelation between informal finance and monetary policy is clarified. Therefore, this paper believes that the informal finance should be legalized from the perspective of maintaining economic vitality and maintaining financial stability. In view of this, this paper further analyzes the current informal financial legalization still facing. The real dilemma is that the long-term monopoly of the financial system and the legislative rules are difficult to reach a consensus. On the road of the legalization of the informal finance in the future, this paper puts forward a little humble opinion, that is to think that the legal one on the one hand of informal finance needs to make special laws, and on the other hand, the deposit insurance institution with the role of the lender of final credit is needed. The stable development of formal finance is escorted.
Through the discussion of six parts, the point of view is that monetary policy affects the interest rate of the informal financial market, while the non formal finance can expand the supply of money, but this effect can not be reflected in the statistics of M2, thus restraining the implementation of the monetary policy with the target of the money supply as the intermediary, therefore, the informal finance seeks to legalize it. Road.
This paper has the following three main features: first, this paper obtains the mutual influence between the informal finance and the monetary policy through the theoretical model. Secondly, in the process of estimating the informal financial scale, this paper uses the income expenditure method which is less used in the existing literature, and gives a detailed account of the estimation process. On this basis, the estimation of the scale of informal financial credit is extended to 2009. Finally, this paper uses the method of measurement test to demonstrate the influence of the informal finance on the monetary supply and then to the monetary policy. On the basis of the selection of M2 as the explanatory variable, two regression models with long-term equilibrium relationship are constructed. By comparing the coefficients of the two models, the results of the impact of Informal Finance on the supply of money in the M2 statistics show that the effect of the informal finance is difficult to be controlled.
Of course, there are also some shortcomings in this paper. First of all, this paper, when estimating the scale of informal financial credit, can not estimate the size of the informal financial credit in the last two years due to the lack of original data. At the same time, because of the defect of the estimation method, it may lead to a small estimate. The scale of the loan, as an explanatory variable, does not take into account the influence of other factors on the broad currency, which may make the results of the model not accurate enough. These are also where the paper itself needs to work hard in the future.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832;F822.0

【引证文献】