我国上市公司年报中“管理层讨论与分析”有用性的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 12:52

本文选题：管理层讨论与分析 + 有用性　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：提高上市公司信息、披露质量一直是我国构建有效资本市场的重点工作之一,随着我国资本市场的不断发展和完善,加之经营环境的复杂使得上市公司本身经营业务愈加复杂,上市公司提供的传统财务报告中包含的财务信息已不能满足外部信息使用者的信息需求,对财务报表起辅助和解释作用的非财务信息越来越受到重视。我国自2002年引入管理层讨论与分析(Management DiscussionAnalysis,MDA)披露制度,此后证监会主要在《公开发行证券的公司信息、披露内容与格式准则》中的第2号年报准则和第3号半年报(中期报告)准则中对其进行相关规定。我国证监会自2002年至2005年每年均对年报披露准则进行了修订,其中均涉及MDA信息披露的相关规定,2005年的年报准则修订中,证监会对MDA信息、披露的相关要求进行了细化,2007年年报披露准则再次进行修订之后一直沿用至今。2011年12月30日证监会公布了年报披露准则修订意见稿,其中对MDA披露制度进行了相应的修订。我国引入MDA信息披露制度刚好10个年头,理论和实务界对其研究均较少。MDA中包含的叙述性信息是否真如引入制度时监管层的初衷以及投资者对它的万般期待那样提供了有效的信息?在细化后的管理层讨论与分析披露制度中包含的大量信息中哪些信息的作用最大?这些问题都需要实证的研究——进行回答。国内对MDA信息披露的研究大多停留在理论层面,如对其披露现状进行概括和描述、对国内外MDA信息披露制度进行比较等；国内在其有用性方面的实证研究文献屈指可数,仅有的几篇文献多为使用制度引入之初的年报数据和信息,对MDA信息的有用性、影响其信息程度的因素等进行笼统分析,且国内文献基本全部选用单一年度的年报信息进行分析,以此使得其结果有一定的偶然性。针对国内MDA信息披露制度有用性实证研究的现状,考虑到证监会年报披露准则的修订情况,本文选用2008-2010年度的年报信息为基础进行研究。证监会在2007年对年报准则进行修订后至2011年12月才进行了再一次的修订意见征求,因此2008-2010年的上市公司年报采用的是同一披露准则,运用2008年年报MDA中的信息为基础研究,可同时对MDA中的信息对公司短期(一年)和长期(两年)的盈利的预测作用做验证。国内的研究通常以整个资本市场为研究对象,李锋森(2007)指出可以分行业对MDA信息披露制度有用性进行深入研究,因此本文选取了沪深两市主板A股中按证监会行业分类中的采掘业和建筑业、零售业3个行业板块中的非ST共114家上市公司进行研究。本文采用非指数法,通过对样本公司2008年年报中MDA信息进行人工阅读并评分,通过检验其MDA信息整体及7个子项目与公司未来一年的和两年的营业收入、每股盈余和经营现金净流量的相关性来对我国上市公司当前年报中MDA的有用性进行实证分析。本文共分为六章,各章主要内容如下：第一章：绪论,主要介绍论文的选题背景、意义、研究方向和论文框架。第二章：我国MDA信息披露制度演进,主要介绍自我国2002年引入MDA信息披露制度以来,我国证监会在年报披露准则中对MDA信息披露所做的相关规定及演进。从中可以看到我国年报中的MDA信息、披露制度随着我国资本市场的发展和外部信息使用者的需求的发展而不断细化和明确,并不断增加对公司经营情况及未来发展展望的实质性条款的披露规定。其准则不断演进的根本原因是使MDA披露的信息更加能够满足外部信息使用者的需求,使得外部投资者能够通过MDA披露的信息更加深入的了解公司的经营情况,掌握其未来发展的方向,以此做出相应的投资决策。第三章：理论基础及文献综述,主要介绍本文的理论基础及国内外在MDA有用性方面的主要文献。从中可以看出,国外学者从各个方面对MDA信息的整体有用性及各子项目的有用性进行了较为全面的实证研究,其从资本市场中获得了大量对MDA有用性有力的说明；国内在MDA有用性的实证研究极少,仅有的寥寥几篇文献使用的基本都是2004年的数据,对当前我国上市公司年报中的MDA有用性的研究几乎还是空白。第四章：研究设计,主要说明变量、样本选取及主要研究假设、模型构建等等；结合国内外MDA信息有用性方面研究文献的优势和不足,本文选择MDA中的产品价格变化、营业收入变化、毛利率变化、投资进度与收益、外部环境(主要是公司面临的宏观经济环境及市场竞争)、发展战略(主要是拟投资项目、拟推出的新产品等)和新年度的盈利目标7个披露子项目作为自变量,选择公司未来的营业收入变化率、每股盈余变化率和经营现金净流量变化量作为因变量,并设置了相应的控制变量,进而建立了相应的多元线性回归模型。本文自变量的数据来源于对样本公司2008年年报中MDA信息的人工阅读并评分。第五章：实证分析,首先对模型设计到的变量进行了描述性统计,样本公司MDA信息披露频次统计结果显示,采掘业公司的整体披露水平最高,零售业最差。但与之前的研究文献相比其整体披露水平已显著提高。从各子项目及披露性质来看,管理层往往愿意披露容易披露的信息,且倾向于披露利好的信息,利差信息往往一笔带过,前瞻性信息的披露情况有明显好转。但上市公司往往只披露证监会强制性披露的条款,对于证监会鼓励披露的条款披露极少,其主动披露的意愿较差。此后运用模型进行回归。第六章：结论与启示,本文的实证结果表明,样本公司年报MDA中披露的信息整体与公司短期(1年)的营业收入、每股盈余和经营现金净流量均具有显著的相关性,与其长期(2年)盈利情况关联性很弱。从其7个子项目来看：管理层对公司营业收入的变化、投资进度与收益、行业发展趋势及面临的市场竞争格局(外部环境)、发展战略的分析和讨论以及对未来一年的盈利目标对公司未来一年的营业收入的预测性最强,管理层对公司当年营业收入变化、营业利润率变化、投资进度与收益、行业的发展趋势及公司面临的市场竞争的分析和讨论对公司未来一年的每股盈余的预测性很强,管理层对公司投资进度与收益、营业收入变化和发展战略的披露对于预测公司未来一年的经营现金净流量具有显著的辅助作用。分行业的回归结果表明,我国不同行业上市公司MDA的披露质量及信息、的有用性均存在差异。零售业上市公司管理层对营业收入变化、投资进度与收益的讨论与分析对于预测其未来营业收入和每股盈余均具有显著的作用,其对行业趋势和面临的竞争格局、发展战略的讨论和分析对预测其未来营业收入作用显著,其对营业利润率的变化的讨论和分析对于预测其每股盈余具有显著的辅助作用；建筑业上市公司管理层讨论与分析整体上对预测公司未来营业收入和未来一年经营现金净流量显著相关；采掘业上市公司管理层对营业利润率变化、营业收入变化的讨论和分析对预测其未来每股盈余有显著作用,其对未来发展战略的讨论和分析对预测公司未来现金净流量有显著的辅助作用。本文的实证结果有力的证明了我国上市公司年报中披露的MDA信息与其未来盈利情况的相关性,进而以实证数据说明了MDA的信息有用性和存在的必要性。其结果还表明,我国上市公司MDA信息中的不同子项目其作用有着差异,不同行业的上市公司其MDA信息、披露质量及有用性均存在差异。根据研究结果,本文对年报披露准则中的MDA信息披露规定提出了相关的建议。本文在引入MDA信息披露制度恰好10个年头以及进一步修订之际,对采掘业、建筑业和零售业3个行业板块上市公司2008-2010年报中MDA信息的有用性进行研究,以此确定我国现行MDA信息披露制度的指引下MDA披露的信息是否对投资者决策提供了有用信息、MDA信息的有用性是否与行业有关、当前的制度是否存在不足等问题,以此为我国更好的改进上市公司信息披露制度提出一些意见和建议。本文的主要贡献在于对现行MDA信息披露制度下(2008年)的MDA信息有用性进行了分项目实证研究,同时还对不同行业(采掘业、建筑业和零售业)的MDA信息、有用性进行了对比研究。国内对我国上市公司MDA信息有用性的实证研究较少,并且其研究结果均表明我国上市公司MDA信息、中的前瞻性信息、与公司未来业绩没有相关性；但本文的实证结果表明,MDA信息中的前瞻性信息(对公司面临的宏观政策及竞争局面、发展战略和未来盈利目标)与公司未来经营业绩有着显著的相关性；因此本文实际上用实证的数据对MDA信息中的前瞻性信息的有用性进行了有力的验证,对其存在的必要性及未来制度的制定均具有一定的现实意义。但同时,由于时间和精力的局限,本文选取的样本较少,也仅从MDA信息与公司未来盈利指标之间的相关性这一个方面对其有用性进行了研究；同时在对MDA子项目人工阅读并评分的过程中忽略掉了不同程度利好和利差信息的不同影响。
[Abstract]:Improving the information of listed companies and disclosing quality has always been one of the key work of building effective capital market in China. With the continuous development and perfection of China's capital market and the complexity of the operating environment, the operating business of the listed companies is becoming more complex. The financial information contained in the financial reports provided by the listed companies is not full. The information needs of the users of the foot external information, the non financial information that plays an auxiliary and explanatory role in the financial statements, has been paid more and more attention. Since 2002, China introduced the Management DiscussionAnalysis (MDA) disclosure system. Since then, the SFC is mainly in the disclosure of the information of the company, the disclosure of the content and the format of the format. From 2002 to 2005, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the annual reporting guidelines from 2002 to 2005, all of which involve the relevant provisions of MDA information disclosure. In the revision of the annual report standards of 2005, the CSRC's requirements for the disclosure of MDA information are required. It has been refined, and the 2007 annual report disclosure standards have been revised again after the revision of the 2007 year's.2011 year. The SFC published the revised draft of the annual report disclosure guidelines, in which the MDA disclosure system was revised accordingly.
The introduction of MDA information disclosure system in China has just been 10 years ago. Whether the narrative information contained in the theoretical and practical circles is less than that of the.MDA, is the original intention of the regulatory layer when the system is introduced, as well as the effective information that investors have provided for it? What is the most important function of the information in the quantity information? These questions need an empirical study to answer. Most of the domestic research on MDA information disclosure is in the theoretical level, such as the summary and description of its disclosure status, the comparison of the MDA information disclosure system at home and abroad, and the empirical research literature on its usefulness in China. The only few papers are most of the annual reports and information introduced at the beginning of the use of the system. The usefulness of MDA information and the factors affecting the degree of information are analyzed in general, and the domestic literature is basically all selected by the annual report information of a single year, so that the results have a certain chance.
In view of the current status of the empirical research on the usefulness of MDA information disclosure system in China, considering the revision of the annual report disclosure standards of the CSRC, this paper is based on the annual report information of the 2008-2010 year. The CSRC revised the annual report standards in 2007 until December 2011. 010 years' annual reports of listed companies are based on the same disclosure criteria, based on the information in the 2008 annual report MDA, which can simultaneously verify the predictive role of information in the MDA on the company's short-term (one year) and long-term (two years) earnings. The domestic research usually takes the whole capital market as the research object, and Li Fengsen (2007) points out that it can be divided. The industry has made an in-depth study on the usefulness of MDA information disclosure system, so this paper has selected 114 listed companies of non ST in the A shares of the two Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets according to the industry and construction industry in the SFC industry, and the 3 sectors of the retail industry.
By using the non exponential method, through the manual reading and grading of the MDA information in the 2008 annual report of the Sample Firms, the paper examines the relevance of the MDA information as a whole and 7 sub items to the company's business income in the next year and two years, the earnings per share and the net cash flow of operating cash, to the usefulness of the MDA in the current annual reports of China's listed companies. Empirical analysis.
This article is divided into six chapters, and the main contents of each chapter are as follows:
Chapter 1: introduction, mainly introducing the background, significance, research direction and framework of the thesis.
The second chapter is the evolution of the MDA information disclosure system in China. It mainly introduces the relevant regulations and evolution of the information disclosure of MDA in the annual report disclosure standards of our country since the introduction of the MDA information disclosure system in 2002. From this, we can see the MDA information in the annual report of our country. The disclosure system is with the development of China's capital market and the external letter. The development of the user's needs is constantly refined and clear, and the disclosure rules of the substantive terms of the company's operation and future development are constantly increased. The fundamental reason for the evolution of the standards is to make the information disclosed by the MDA more able to meet the needs of the users of the external information, so that the external investors can be disclosed through the disclosure of the MDA. The information is more in-depth understanding of the company's operation and grasp the direction of its future development, so as to make corresponding investment decisions.
The third chapter, the theoretical basis and literature review, mainly introduces the theoretical basis of this paper and the main literature on the MDA usefulness at home and abroad. It can be seen from it that foreign scholars have carried out a more comprehensive empirical study on the overall usefulness of MDA information and the usefulness of each sub project from various aspects, which have obtained a large amount of the capital market. A powerful explanation of the usefulness of MDA; few empirical studies on the usefulness of MDA in China. Only a few of the few articles used in the literature are basically the data of 2004. The study of MDA usefulness in the current annual reports of China's listed companies is almost still blank.
The fourth chapter: research and design, mainly explain the variables, sample selection and main research hypothesis, model construction, and so on. Combining the advantages and disadvantages of MDA information availability both at home and abroad, this paper chooses the price change, the change of business income, the change of gross interest rate, the progress and income of the investment, the external environment (mainly the company face). The macro economic environment and market competition), the development strategy (mainly the proposed investment projects, the new products to be introduced, etc.) and the 7 disclosure sub items of the new year's profit target as independent variables, choose the company's future turnover rate, the rate of earnings change and the change of net cash flow as the dependent variable, and set up the corresponding variables. The corresponding multivariate linear regression model is established. The data of this paper is derived from the manual reading of the MDA information in the 2008 annual report of the Sample Firms and graded.
The fifth chapter: empirical analysis, first of all, the descriptive statistics of the variables designed by the model, the Sample Firms MDA information disclosure frequency statistics show that the overall disclosure level of the mining companies is the highest and the retail industry is the worst. But compared with the previous research literature, the overall disclosure of water level has been significantly improved. The managers tend to disclose the information that is easy to disclose, and tend to disclose good information. The difference information is often carried out, and the disclosure of forward-looking information is obviously better. However, the listed companies often disclose only the terms of the mandatory disclosure of the SFC, and the disclosure of the terms of the CSRC is rarely disclosed. Poor wish. Then use the model to return.
The sixth chapter: conclusion and inspiration, the empirical results show that the information disclosed in the Sample Firms annual report MDA has a significant correlation with the company's short-term (1 years) operating income, earnings per share and the net operating cash flow, and is very weak with its long-term (2 year) profit. From its 7 sub projects, the management level is to the company camp. The change in income, the progress and income of the investment, the trend of industry development and the market competition pattern (external environment), the analysis and discussion of the development strategy and the strongest forecast for the company's revenue in the coming year for the next year, the change of business income, the change of operating profit rate, the investment into the company. The degree and income, the industry development trend and the analysis and discussion of the market competition faced by the company are strong predictability for the company's earnings per share in the coming year. The management level of the company's investment progress and income, the change of business income and the disclosure of the development strategy have a significant auxiliary work on the net operating cash flow of the Forecast Ltd in the coming year. Use.
The regression results of the sub industry show that there are differences in the quality and the usefulness of the disclosure quality and information of the listed companies of different industries in China. The discussion and analysis of the operating income of the listed companies in the retail industry, the discussion and analysis of the progress and income of the MDA have a significant role in predicting the future business income and the earnings per share. The discussion and analysis of the development strategy have a significant effect on the forecast of its future operating income. The discussion and analysis of the changes in the operating profit rate have a significant auxiliary role in predicting the earnings per share. The management layer of the listed companies in the construction industry discusses and analyzes the future business income and future of the Forecast Ltd on the whole. There is a significant correlation between the net operating cash flow rate in one year and the discussion and analysis of the changes in operating profit rate and the change of operating income for the listed companies in the mining industry. The discussion and analysis of the future development strategy have a significant auxiliary effect on the future net cash flow of the Forecast Ltd.
The empirical results of this paper strongly prove the correlation between the MDA information disclosed in the annual reports of China's listed companies and their future earnings, and then demonstrate the information usefulness and necessity of MDA by empirical data. The results also show that the difference in the role of the different sub projects in the MDA information of our listed companies is different and the different industries are in different industries. There are differences in the quality and usefulness of the listed companies' MDA information. According to the results of the study, the paper puts forward relevant suggestions on the MDA information disclosure rules in the annual report disclosure guidelines.
With the introduction of the MDA information disclosure system for 10 years and further revision, this paper studies the usefulness of MDA information in the 2008-2010 annual report of the 3 industry plate listed companies in the mining industry, the construction industry and the retail industry, in order to determine whether the information disclosed by MDA under the guidance of the current MDA information disclosure system in China is made to the investors' decision making. For the useful information, whether the usefulness of the MDA information is related to the industry and whether there is a shortage of current system, some suggestions and suggestions are put forward to improve the information disclosure system of Listed Companies in China. The main contribution of this paper is to divide the MDA information usefulness under the current MDA information disclosure system (2008). A comparative study is made on the MDA information and usefulness of different industries (mining, construction and retail). There are few empirical studies on the availability of MDA information in China's listed companies, and the results of the research show that the MDA information of Listed Companies in China is not related to the future performance of the company. But the empirical results of this paper show that there is a significant correlation between forward-looking information in MDA information (macro policy and competition situation, development strategy and future profit goals for the company) with the future business performance of the company; therefore, this paper actually uses empirical data to carry out the usefulness of forward-looking information in the MDA information. The verification of force has certain practical significance for the necessity of its existence and the formulation of future system.
But at the same time, because of the limitation of time and energy, this paper selects fewer samples, and studies its usefulness only from the correlation between MDA information and the future profit index of the company. At the same time, it neglects the different influence of different degree of profit and difference information in the process of manual reading and scoring of the MDA sub project.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F275;F224

【参考文献】