人民币汇率波动对我国货币供给影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 23:06

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 货币供给　；参考：《新疆财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：1994年1月1日，，我国对外汇体制进行了改革，开始实行以市场供求为基础、单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制度；并同时建立了银行间外汇市场和实行结售汇制度。这些制度的建立，会使人民币汇率浮动区间扩大，为维护人民币汇率稳定，中国人民银行就需要对外汇市场进行干预。那么，在这种情况下，人民币汇率波动会影响我国的货币供给吗？带着这个问题，本文进行了逐步探索。本文首先整理了关于汇率波动对货币供给影响的已有研究成果，力求在前人研究的基础上，站的更高，看的更远。其次，本文对汇率波动对货币供给的影响进行了理论解释，以使本文的研究具有理论基础。再次，对人民币汇率波动对我国货币供给的影响进行了定性分析，主要分析了人民币汇率波动对我国货币供给影响的机制。最后，用实证分析的方法分析了人民币汇率波动对我国货币供给的影响，本文选择了相关性分析和向量自回归分析的方法从定量的角度分析了人民币汇率波动对我国货币供给的影响。在上述分析的基础上得出了本文的研究结论和政策建议。本文的研究结论是：人民币汇率波动对我国货币供给的不同层次影响强弱不同；人民币汇率波动使我国货币供给的内生性增强；人民币汇率波动改变了我国货币供给的传导机制；人民币汇率波动使我国的货币供给和需求不平衡；人民币汇率波动改变了我国调节货币供给的方式。相关政策建议是：完善人民币公开市场调控体系，增强我国货币供给的主动性；逐步扩大人民币汇率浮动区间，增强我国货币供给的自动调节机制；多元化我国外汇市场主体，降低外汇市场对我国货币供给的冲击；建立离岸金融市场，降低人民币汇率波动对我国货币供给的冲击；全面监测进出入我国的资金，适时调整我国的货币供给。
[Abstract]:On January 1, 1994, China reformed the foreign exchange system, began to implement a single, managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, and established the interbank foreign exchange market and the system of settlement and sale of foreign exchange at the same time. The establishment of these systems will expand the floating band of the RMB exchange rate. In order to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, the people's Bank of China will need to intervene in the foreign exchange market. So, in this case, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations will affect China's money supply? With this question, this article has carried on the step by step exploration. In this paper, the previous research results on the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on money supply are first summarized, and based on the previous studies, we try our best to stand higher and see further. Secondly, this paper explains the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on money supply theoretically, so that the research of this paper has a theoretical foundation. Thirdly, the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's money supply is analyzed qualitatively, and the mechanism of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's money supply is analyzed. Finally, the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's money supply is analyzed by empirical analysis. This paper chooses the methods of correlation analysis and vector autoregressive analysis to analyze the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's money supply from a quantitative point of view. Based on the above analysis, the research conclusions and policy recommendations are obtained. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on different levels of China's money supply is different; The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has changed the transmission mechanism of China's money supply, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has caused the imbalance of money supply and demand in China, and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has changed the way that China adjusts the money supply. Relevant policy recommendations are: perfecting the open market control system of RMB, strengthening the initiative of China's money supply, gradually expanding the floating range of RMB exchange rate, strengthening the automatic adjustment mechanism of China's money supply, diversifying the main body of China's foreign exchange market, To reduce the impact of the foreign exchange market on China's money supply, to establish offshore financial markets, to reduce the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's money supply, to monitor comprehensively the funds coming in and out of China, and to adjust China's money supply at the right time.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F822.0

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