未来国际货币体系中的美元与特别提款权

发布时间：2018-05-17 05:13

本文选题：美元 + 特别提款权　；参考：《华东师范大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来金融危机频繁爆发,造成了全球经济的周期性波动,尤其是本次美国次贷危机的发生,不仅使发达国家遭受了巨大的损失,也给发展中国家带来了直接或间接的负面影响。危机引起了国际社会关于改革现行国际货币体系的思考,提出以美元为本位的国际货币体系已经不能很好的适应世界经济格局的转变与全球经济一体化的发展。各国政治立场、经济情况相差甚远,因此对于改革国际货币体系的方案各不相同。其中,周小川(2009)提出的“扩大特别提款权(SDR)的作用并最终替代美元的方案”引起了国际社会的强烈反响,SDR的作用被重新审视,SDR与美元未来在国际货币体系的地位比较成为了一个学术热点。本文主要从成为国际储备货币的条件出发,用比较分析法来探析美元与特别提款权目前在国际货币体系中的地位及未来发展预期。文章首先分析了一种货币能够成为国际储备货币所必须具备的条件；其次,详细的阐述了SDR的先天缺陷与现有作用,以及未来的改革路径与阻碍；最后,解释了美元成为最主要的国际储备货币的原因,分析了美元环流未来可持续性的条件。本文研究发现,特别提款权作为IMF的记账单位,最大的优势在于价值相对稳定,可以作为官方储备资产的补充减少系统性风险,但其不能完整地发挥货币的全部职能。SDR支付功能短缺,目前在流通领域缺乏吸引力,也没有实体经济作为信用支撑。未来改革SDR在政治及技术上都存在很大的阻碍,所以SDR未来在国际货币体系中的地位提高有限。而美元作为现行国际货币体系中的本位货币,在国际储备和交易流通中都占有最大比重,美元由美国强大综合实力作为支撑且具有网络外部效应。由于“金融暗物质”的存在,美国实际的对外净资本头寸远远好于官方统计,只要美国未来的GDP增长能够承受美元外汇储备的增长,从而保持美元储备资产的稳定性与美元的信心,那么就可以实现国际经济格局的动态平衡、美元环流的可持续性且规避“特里芬难题”。从美国近期出台的一系列重振制造业以及美国的科技实力来看,美国未来保持高速的经济增长并保证美元信心是非常有可能的。本文的结论是,SDR在短期或长期都无法替代美元,但提高SDR未来的地位意义重大,美元未来的本位地位能否维持要看美国未来GDP的增长。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the frequent outbreak of the financial crisis has caused the cyclical fluctuations of the global economy, especially the occurrence of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, which not only caused the developed countries to suffer huge losses. It also has direct or indirect negative effects on developing countries. The crisis caused the international community to think about the reform of the current international monetary system, and proposed that the dollar-based international monetary system could not adapt to the transformation of the world economic structure and the development of global economic integration. Political positions and economic conditions vary widely, so the options for reforming the international monetary system vary. Of which, The proposal to expand the role of SDRs and ultimately replace the dollar has aroused strong international reaction. The role of SDRs has been re-examined in comparison with the future role of the US dollar in the international monetary system. For an academic hotspot. Based on the conditions of becoming an international reserve currency, this paper uses comparative analysis to analyze the status of the US dollar and SDR in the international monetary system and its future development prospects. This paper first analyzes the necessary conditions for a currency to become an international reserve currency. Secondly, it expounds in detail the innate defects and existing functions of SDR, as well as the path and obstacles of future reform. It explains why the dollar has become the most important international reserve currency and analyzes the conditions for the future sustainability of the dollar circulation. This paper finds that the greatest advantage of SDR as the unit of account of IMF is that its value is relatively stable and can be used as a supplement to official reserve assets to reduce systemic risk. But it can not give full play to the full function of the currency. SDR payment function is short, the current circulation area is not attractive, and there is no real economy as a credit support. The future reform of SDR is hindered politically and technically, so the future status of SDR in the international monetary system is limited. As the standard currency in the current international monetary system, the dollar occupies the largest proportion in the international reserve and trade circulation. It is supported by the strong comprehensive strength of the United States and has the network external effect. Because of the existence of "financial dark matter", the United States' actual net external capital position is far better than official statistics, as long as the future GDP growth of the United States can withstand the increase in US dollar foreign exchange reserves. Thus maintaining the stability of the dollar reserve assets and the confidence of the dollar, the dynamic balance of the international economic pattern, the sustainability of the dollar circulation and the avoidance of the Triffin problem can be achieved. In the light of a series of recent U.S. efforts to revive manufacturing and the country's technological prowess, it is highly likely that the United States will maintain high economic growth and ensure confidence in the dollar in the future. The conclusion of this paper is that SDRs can not replace the US dollar in the short or long term, but it is of great significance to improve the future status of SDR, and whether the dollar's future standard status can be maintained depends on the future GDP growth of the United States.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F821;F827.12

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