巨额外汇储备与通货膨胀关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 21:59

本文选题：外汇储备 + 通货膨胀　；参考：《湖南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：截至2012年6月底，我国外汇储备为32529.5334亿美元，规模稳居世界第一。改革开放以来，巨额的外汇储备将国际间的流通手段、购买手段和支付手段这一角色发挥得淋漓尽致。作为国际公关烫金名片‖的外汇储备，不仅体现了我国日益强大的综合国力，更是对我国经济增长良好预期的最佳注解。与此同时国内经济也发生着翻天覆地的变化，，显著的表现为货币供给大幅增加、物价水平不断攀升。CPI从2009年底以来开始出现持续攀升势头。2011年7月CPI同比增长6.5%，刷新年内新高并站上3年内最高点。通货膨胀无论从何视角观察都是中国未来面临的长期压力。本文选取外汇储备规模这个解释变量作为研究外部经济如何影响我国国内通货膨胀水平的指标。理论模型及传导机制分析均表明巨额外汇储备增强了货币途径的通货膨胀效应。根据实证分析结果得出我国巨额外汇储备对国内通货膨胀有正效应但影响有限。如果外汇储备增加1个百分点，则诱导物价指数增加0.10090个百分点。外汇储备存量受外部条件的某一冲击之后，会给通货膨胀率带来持续的同向促进作用。在通货膨胀率的变动中，大约3.22-8%的波动可以由外汇储备的变动来解释。长期看来，巨额外汇储备对通货膨胀存在显著的影响。为了缓解巨额外汇储备对通货膨胀的影响本文提出以下有针对性的建议：多管齐下遏止外汇储备过快增长；多渠道扩宽外汇储备使用途径；构造良好的政策环境降低巨额外汇储备的负效应及积极推进人民币国际化有效降低外汇储备需求。
[Abstract]:By the end of June, 2012, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.25295334 trillion, ranking first in the world. Since the reform and opening up, the huge foreign exchange reserves will play the role of international circulation means, purchase means and payment means incisively and vividly. As an international public relations card, the foreign exchange reserve not only reflects our country's increasingly strong comprehensive national strength, but also the best annotation of our country's economic growth. At the same time, the domestic economy has also undergone earth-shaking changes, marked by a substantial increase in the money supply. Prices have continued to climb since the end of 2009. CPI rose 6.5 percent year on year in July 2011, a new high for the year and a three-year high. Inflation, no matter from any perspective, is a long-term pressure on China in the future. This paper selects the scale of foreign exchange reserves as an explanatory variable to study how the external economy affects China's domestic inflation level. Theoretical model and conduction mechanism analysis show that huge foreign exchange reserves enhance the inflation effect of monetary channel. According to the results of empirical analysis, it is concluded that China's huge foreign exchange reserves have a positive effect on domestic inflation, but the impact is limited. If foreign exchange reserves increase by 1 percentage point, the price index will increase by 0.10090 percentage points. After the stock of foreign exchange reserves is impacted by some external conditions, it will bring continuous codirectional effect to the inflation rate. Some 3.22-8 percent of inflation changes can be explained by changes in foreign exchange reserves. In the long run, large foreign exchange reserves have a significant impact on inflation. In order to mitigate the impact of huge foreign exchange reserves on inflation, this paper puts forward the following targeted suggestions: multi-pronged approach to curb the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves, multi-channel expansion of the use of foreign exchange reserves; A well-structured policy environment reduces the negative effects of huge foreign exchange reserves and actively promotes the internationalization of RMB to effectively reduce the demand for foreign exchange reserves.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.5

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