经济复苏下的非常规货币政策退出——理论分析与中国的选择

发布时间：2018-05-19 11:16

本文选题：经济复苏 + 货币政策　；参考：《世界经济研究》2010年12期

【摘要】：本文从非常规货币政策退出的时机判断、策略选择、工具取舍和效果预测与评估等四个方面构建了一个经济复苏背景下的非常规货币政策退出的理论分析框架,在此基础上,对中国非常规货币政策退出中涉及的相关问题进行了探讨。研究表明,时机判断、退出策略、退出工具的选取以及效果预测和评估是非常规货币政策退出决策中相互依存、相互制约的四个有机组成部分。在经济复苏阶段,中国非常规货币政策退出的目标应是在维护币值稳定的基础上兼顾其他目标的实现。在退出的节奏上应循序渐进,在财政政策与货币政策的退出次序上应"先财政、后货币"。同时,应加强与其他国家间货币政策退出的协调与沟通,强化对非常规货币政策退出效果的预测和评估。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework of unconventional monetary policy withdrawal in the context of economic recovery from four aspects: timing judgment, strategy selection, tool selection and effect prediction and evaluation. This paper probes into the related problems involved in the withdrawal of China's unconventional monetary policy. The research shows that the timing judgment, exit strategy, the selection of exit tools and the effect prediction and evaluation are the four organic components which depend on each other and restrict each other in the withdrawal decision of unconventional monetary policy. In the stage of economic recovery, the objective of China's unconventional monetary policy withdrawal should be to realize other objectives on the basis of maintaining currency stability. In the rhythm of withdrawal should be gradual, in the fiscal policy and monetary policy withdrawal order should be "first fiscal, then monetary." At the same time, we should strengthen the coordination and communication with other countries in monetary policy withdrawal, and strengthen the prediction and evaluation of the effect of non-conventional monetary policy withdrawal.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：武汉大学自主科研项目(人文社会科学)“经济复苏背景下非常规货币政策退出机制研究”研究成果 “中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”资助教育部“国际金融危机应对研究”应急课题资助(课题批准号:2009JYJR030)
【分类号】：F822.0

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