固定资产投资扩张对通货膨胀的影响分析

发布时间：2018-05-20 01:43

本文选题：固定资产投资 + 通货膨胀　；参考：《东北财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：通货膨胀是经济研究的永恒问题。不同商品的相对价格和产出会因通胀而发生扭曲,严重时这种扭曲会波及整个经济的产出和就业。高通胀甚至是一次将收入和财富在不同阶层之间再分配的过程。改革开放以来,中国共经历过5次比较显著的高通胀。二十一世纪以来,高通胀出现的频率明显加快,并显著高于历史和发达国家的平均水平。在每次出现高通胀之前,货币供应增长都有明显的加速,同时经常伴随着积极的财政投资计划。改革开放以来,中国的投资对GDP的贡献率一直在攀升,这与发达国家消费对GDP的贡献最大的情况形成了鲜明的对比。近年来持续升温的“铁公基”投资畸高不下,资源垄断型产业和大型制造业投资热度不减,甚至有国进民退的趋势。发展中国家独有的、具有浓厚政府行政干预色彩的大规模固定资产投资对经济的影响几何?它们是不是市场化改革以来几次严重通胀的幕后推手?这种高层次的计划性决策在当今市场经济环境下效率几何,对微观价格水平的传导会不会引致更深层次的经济问题? 本文首先参考、改进了研究中国固定资产投资效率的理论模型,对固定资产投资扩张对通货膨胀传导的理论依据进行了分析；然后选用1992年2季度到2012年2季度的季度数据,利用Granger因果关系检验、用VEC模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法对固定资产投资对通货膨胀的影响程度进行了经验研究。得出固定资产投资扩张是通货膨胀的Granger原因,固定资产投资扩张对通货膨胀波动性的影响是除通胀本身外最大的影响因素的结论；在得出固定资产投资扩张确实对通货膨胀有影响后,我们对它们之间的传导渠道进行了分析。提出固定资产投资扩张刺激了特定产业需求端、引致需求型通胀；政府推动的固定资产投资扩张创造出了超额货币从而引致通胀；许多固投项目本身效率低下引致了通胀这三种传递渠道。最后的分析指出,固定资产投资扩张对通货膨胀的传递可能只是目前中国经济深层结构性问题反映在表面的冰山一角。这样的分析结论应该给执政当局以足够的警示。简单的依靠货币政策治理通胀无异于螳臂当车,只有约束政府的行政边界、尊重市场经济规律才有可能从根本上治理通货膨胀。
[Abstract]:Inflation is an eternal problem in economic research. The relative prices and output of different commodities can be distorted by inflation, which in severe cases will affect the output and employment of the whole economy. High inflation is even a process of redistributing income and wealth among different classes. Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced five more significant high inflation. Since the 21 century, the frequency of high inflation has accelerated significantly, and is significantly higher than the historical and developed average. Money supply growth accelerates markedly before every high inflation, often accompanied by aggressive fiscal investment plans. Since the reform and opening up, the contribution rate of Chinese investment to GDP has been rising, which contrasts sharply with the biggest contribution of consumption to GDP in developed countries. In recent years, the investment of "iron public base", which has been heating up continuously, is extremely high, and the investment heat of resource monopoly industry and large manufacturing industry is not decreasing, and there is even a tendency for the country to enter and retreat from the people. What is the impact of large-scale fixed asset investment on the economy, which is unique to developing countries and has a strong government administrative intervention? Are they the driving force behind severe inflation several times since market-oriented reforms? This kind of high-level planning decision in the current market economy environment efficiency geometry, the transmission of micro-price level will lead to a deeper level of economic problems? This paper first improves the theoretical model for studying the efficiency of fixed asset investment in China, and analyzes the theoretical basis of inflation transmission caused by the expansion of fixed asset investment, and then selects the quarterly data from the second quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 2012. By using Granger causality test, VEC model, impulse response function and variance decomposition method, the influence of fixed asset investment on inflation is studied empirically. It is concluded that the expansion of fixed assets investment is the Granger cause of inflation, and the effect of expansion of fixed assets investment on inflation volatility is the biggest factor besides inflation itself. After finding that the expansion of fixed asset investment does have an impact on inflation, we analyze the transmission channels between them. It is pointed out that the expansion of fixed asset investment stimulates the demand side of specific industries and leads to demand-oriented inflation, while the government-driven expansion of fixed assets investment creates excess currency and thus leads to inflation. Many fixed investment projects themselves are inefficient, leading to inflation these three channels of transmission. The final analysis points out that the expansion of fixed asset investment in the transmission of inflation may only be reflected in the current deep structural problems of the Chinese economy in the face of the tip of the iceberg. Such an analysis should serve as a warning to the ruling authorities. Simply relying on monetary policy to control inflation is no different from mantis. Only by restricting the administrative boundary of the government and respecting the laws of market economy can we fundamentally control inflation.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F283;F822.5;F224

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